Future of humans driving motor vehicles.

niggle
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Future of humans driving motor vehicles.

Postby niggle » 16 Feb 2020, 11:03am

Should humans be allowed to continue controlling motor vehicles on public roads once AI in driverless vehicles surpasses human controlled driving in safety and efficiency?

Cyril Haearn
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Re: Future of humans driving motor vehicles.

Postby Cyril Haearn » 16 Feb 2020, 11:30am

No
Nice one Cyrille, nice one son..
Cycling-of course, but it is far better on 49" fixed
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niggle
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Re: Future of humans driving motor vehicles.

Postby niggle » 16 Feb 2020, 12:32pm

Cyril Haearn wrote:No

Agreed :D

I look forward to it and I don't see why It can't happen quite soon, I would hope by the end of the decade.

fastpedaller
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Re: Future of humans driving motor vehicles.

Postby fastpedaller » 16 Feb 2020, 12:51pm

niggle wrote:Should humans be allowed to continue controlling motor vehicles on public roads once AI in driverless vehicles surpasses human controlled driving in safety and efficiency?

Will it though? it's all very well that it will 'apply the brakes when needed', but will that be too late? Take the following scenarios (not that unlikely)
1) mud on road in country lane, driver using 'human tech' slows as he sees this hazard and is able to stop when a car (or bike) comes the other way around the bend in the road.
2) As AI car is going along road, there is the mud on road, but the 'eyes' don't see it and the car carries on at 40mph regardless, car (or bike) coming around bend, so brakes are applied (they are ABS, but because of the mud they can't stop the vehicle like they would on a dry, clean road) COLLISION.
1) cars are all stopped at mini -roundabout 'driver tech' pilot indicates to another driver 'you can go' all cars are moving within a few seconds
2) As above but AI of the cars prevent them all moving.... GRIDLOCK

It's easy to scoff at the above, but we could end up with a more dangerous, less convenient situation for all.
If you don't believe me have a look at some of the 'real experience' comments on Pistonheads - A driver on there (maybe I shouldn't name the car) has tech which at night 'sees' a hazard up ahead on the A road (or motorway, I don't recall which) which slams on the brakes! The hazard ahead.... the Armco 'it sees in front' as he approaches a bend in the road. Remember this is tech out in the public domain and deemed as safe.

niggle
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Re: Future of humans driving motor vehicles.

Postby niggle » 16 Feb 2020, 2:41pm

The key point I am making is once it does surpass human driving, obviously the above examples are of rather simple 'driver aid' technology that has not achieved that yet, but AI is making great leaps forward all the time.

The first example is about ability to see and recognise hazards, this is ongoing in other AI fields and the advantages of AI include that any number of sensing technologies can be hard wired straight to the 'brain' and that reactions and decision making times will be exponentially quicker than the human brain, as well as better decision making due to installed algorithms and built in learning capacity.

The second example is trivial, with an ability to measure time and distance to an accuracy far exceeding that of humans one vehicle will always be recognised to have got there first and have priority and the other vehicles will know this and cede to it every time. (in the one in a million occasion when the systems fail to identify the vehicle with priority a very simple RNG 'flip of the coin' could decide this in an instant, far quicker than the human 'after you', 'no after you' scenario) Full AI control will enable vehicle to vehicle communication allowing much improved use of road space and real time most efficient route planning according to traffic conditions etc., plus seamless interactions between vehicles at junctions etc. Far from causing gridlock AI will be able to optimise the use of the road network and reduce congestion significantly.

The example of a vehicle failing to realise that it has detected armco ahead and braking is absurd, obviously AI controlled vehicles will have both built in mapping and GPS navigation that would in fact be far superior to human visual navigation, particularly after dark and in fog and heavy rain, in fact AI may not need lights at all and cyclists may no longer be required to have lights either.

ambodach
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Re: Future of humans driving motor vehicles.

Postby ambodach » 16 Feb 2020, 2:46pm

I notice a current ad for Subaru which features a car being brought to a halt by a sheep in the road. Presumably the driver does not even need to look ahead any more as the car does it all.

fastpedaller
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Re: Future of humans driving motor vehicles.

Postby fastpedaller » 16 Feb 2020, 4:21pm

[quote="niggle"
The key point I am making is once it does surpass human driving, obviously the above examples are of rather simple 'driver aid' technology that has not achieved that yet, but AI is making great leaps forward all the time.

And my point is that AI surpassing human anticipation may never happen
The first example is about ability to see and recognise hazards, this is ongoing in other AI fields and the advantages of AI include that any number of sensing technologies can be hard wired straight to the 'brain' and that reactions and decision making times will be exponentially quicker than the human brain, as well as better decision making due to installed algorithms and built in learning capacity.

Lots of words, but will it happen?
If AI can anticipate, what will it do - put the brakes on hard? Another scenario, child on pavement, clearly waving at others on pavement on opposite side of road? slow? beep horn or slam on the brakes? Could be doing that every day unnecessarily or necessarily?

The example of a vehicle failing to realise that it has detected armco ahead and braking is absurd,
[/quote]
Is it? It's happened (if one believes the person who makes the claim), on tech that has been released to the public as being safe - so what are we to believe of claims made in the future? Do you have a vested interest in AI technology?

Oldjohnw
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Re: Future of humans driving motor vehicles.

Postby Oldjohnw » 16 Feb 2020, 4:45pm

I wonder: if we get to the time that AI is this good, what is the point of humans at all?
John

atlas_shrugged
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Re: Future of humans driving motor vehicles.

Postby atlas_shrugged » 16 Feb 2020, 4:51pm

I think yes. But then it depends what you define as a motor vehicle.

I personally like to include mobility buggies into this category. I will never forget Steven Hawkins zipping around Cranebridge in his personal electric powered mobility buggy. He only had movement in his fingers and this could operate a joystick, yet he kept up a punishing world tour and his electric wheelchair was his workhorse of choice. He visited the company I was working at once (Acorn), at that time his son would translate for him. Legend.

Cycling has more in common with organisation like wheels for wellbeing than it does with non-existent public transport. So use human power while you can but recognise that for folks that are elderly or disabled then e-assist is useful.

fullupandslowingdown
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Re: Future of humans driving motor vehicles.

Postby fullupandslowingdown » 17 Feb 2020, 1:00am

Given the likelihood of AI being advanced enough to match the best humans at hazard recognition and negotiating complex junctions is very low within the next decade, I would imagine that by the time AI is safe enough, most governments will have finally come around to the real need to intelligently plan travel i.e we won't all be commuting miles to work because jobs will be neared home. Shops and utilities will be planned around housing. There will be joined up thinking. Consequently there will be little need for individually owned motor cars, so just as AI becomes good enough the need for it will be relegated to taxis, buses and delivery vehicles.

Finally a brave new world will greet us where whenever we need to travel more than a few miles we have the option of AI piloted taxi, or subway or train for longer distances. All electric of course, all powered through a system of collection from guided roadways, with battery backup for the niggly bits. I can actually imagine that AI piloted aircraft will be here before cars because even though you have 3 dimensions so to speak to fly in, the only non aircraft item an AI system would have to spot and avoid would be birds. No jaywalking humans 200 feet above ground, no kids on BMXs pulling wheelies off the pavement straight into traffic.

Modern computer games are fairly realistic now, so with augmented reality, with another a decade's improvement, they'll be so immersive as to satisfy most people's desire for a driving experience. That will only leave the recreational cyclist and walker to use segregated lanes around the city and country. Unless we give way too to the march of technology and have 'peleton' type systems at home. Then whether we wear hi vis or helmets won't matter in the slightest. And with electronics becoming increasingly low powered, having generators in our home bikes to provide the load simulating the wind and the grade, we can generate a trifle of spare electricity.

tim-b
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Re: Future of humans driving motor vehicles.

Postby tim-b » 17 Feb 2020, 6:49am

Hi
AI isn't here yet, only the technology to implement AI, e.g. lane detection, auto parking, auto braking, etc
I don't think that AI will appear because people are struggling with the question of the moral decisions that AI will need to deal with, without necessarily recognising that people make instinctive rather than moral decisions in an emergency and live with the consequences
For example you are with your child in an AI car on auto-driver (or whatever it'll be called) and you're consequently not paying attention. A child runs out in front of your car close enough that you couldn't stop. The car has a choice; swerve and collide head-on with the oncoming truck and put the car's occupants at risk, or keep going and put the pedestrian at risk, and there isn't time for you to focus and decide. Which manufacturer would make that decision and brave the courts and media, when drivers can make the decision and accept the jeopardy?
Regards
tim-b
~~~~¯\(ツ)/¯~~~~

Oldjohnw
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Re: Future of humans driving motor vehicles.

Postby Oldjohnw » 17 Feb 2020, 7:35am

tim-b wrote:Hi . . ..<SNIP - no need to repeat the whole post immediately above >

What a sensible post. Thanks.
Last edited by Graham on 17 Feb 2020, 8:22am, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: SNIP
John

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Re: Future of humans driving motor vehicles.

Postby Vorpal » 17 Feb 2020, 8:42am

Yes, but the public outrage at the idea that people give up their *right* to drive their own cars....
“In some ways, it is easier to be a dissident, for then one is without responsibility.”
― Nelson Mandela, Long Walk to Freedom

reohn2
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Re: Future of humans driving motor vehicles.

Postby reohn2 » 17 Feb 2020, 8:53am

tim-b
That is a very good point.
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Graham
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Re: Future of humans driving motor vehicles.

Postby Graham » 17 Feb 2020, 9:02am

< . . . .their *right* to drive . . . >

Indeed. As well as the all the technical challenges, the need-to-control-a-motor-vehicle has become very deeply ingrained in our culture as a part of personal identity.

There are so many varied aspects to this e.g.

power & adult identity = society has trusted me to control this powerful and potentially dangerous object in a public space.

freedom & fun = I'm in control ( of all these complex driving decisions ) and I get a payback of personal pleasure for doing so ( ref : Top Gear and associated product where cars = adult toys ).

. . . even forum Usernames [ not this one of course :wink: ] where people identify with the motor vehicles that they possess.

etc . . . blah . . .