Accidents

Blue Paul

Accidents

Postby Blue Paul » 18 Oct 2005, 6:27pm

Hello.

I'm a cyclist, more in to competitive cycling than leisure. Shocked to read about Zak Carr's death. I train around the Liverpool area, and the roads are so dangerous now. I also ride a motorbike....

So I thought I'd look up the stats. According to the DfT, Per 100 million kms travelled, most likely to be killed are

1)Motorcyclist 11 deaths
2)Cyclist 3.5 deaths
3)Car 0.4 deaths

http://www.dft.gov.uk/stellent/groups/d ... 041135.pdf

great .....

sportyman531

Re:Accidents

Postby sportyman531 » 3 Nov 2005, 10:17am

There's no such thing as an accident, collisions have causes.

gar

Re:Accidents

Postby gar » 3 Nov 2005, 6:29pm

It goes up quite a lot for a pushbiker if he goes on busy roads, and would be far less for a motorcyclist if he keeps well to the back ones.....
obviously...

Dick Dastardly

Re:Accidents

Postby Dick Dastardly » 3 Nov 2005, 7:15pm

most sustrans roads round here are supposedly quiet,safer backroads- but are used by the boy/girl racers, bikers because the bends are more interesting and a lot of commuters if road works are present on main roads. In considering cycling up to see my girlfriend, Perth to Kincraig, I genuinely think the "killer" A9 would be the quickest and safest way for much of the route, obviously using any dedicated paths built alongside it for some of the shorter bits. North of Bruar I think through the mountain tracks and out at Kingussie would be wisest...

sportyman531

Re:Accidents

Postby sportyman531 » 3 Nov 2005, 8:41pm

I thought The Scheme and the gypsy site on the outskirts of Perth were more scary but what do I know.....

gar

Re:Accidents

Postby gar » 4 Nov 2005, 7:19am

There's no such thing as an accident, collisions have causes.

You might also say that accident have causes.

I had a fairly serious one three years ago and MIB (Motor Insurers bureau)victims of untraced drivershas not yet believed that it was one, but that it did have a cause.

My case is not made any easier by the fact that I told two people that I was going to have one, not supposing for a moment that I would.

I am not a fatalist but I am a firm believer in premonition. Sportyman obviously belives that There is no such thing as fate or destiny.

Pedalling Pete

Re:Accidents

Postby Pedalling Pete » 4 Nov 2005, 5:22pm

The DfT figures are RAW DATA, where each transport category covers the same distance. To make any sensible comparisons you need to standardise on the ACTUAL RISKS, taking account of realistic annual mileage. Then work out the number of years at that annual mileage before there is a likely fatality.

With the quoted figures, the motorcycle is significantly the most at risk at 377 years riding before a fatality is expected. A car driver covering an average 15k miles annually, has over 10,000 years between fatalities.

So it may surprise those motorists that a cyclist at 33 miles weekly has almost exactly the same risk - over 10,000 years!

So what about the clubman at 5,000 miles riding each year? Well in theory they would increase their risk from 10,000 years to just over 3,500 years per fatality. But as fatalities are heavily loaded towards young and inexperienced cyclists, the experienced clubman can expect their risks to be far lower than the raw data averages of all agegroups might suggest.

Apologies if any statisticians find fault in the above, but I believe they correctly show a very different picture than that portrayed by the do-good brigade who only look at the raw data, and give advice based on such mis-information.

Andy Tallis

Re:Accidents

Postby Andy Tallis » 4 Nov 2005, 6:20pm

Very encouraging Pedalling Pete. Even with my 10000m/year target that's one fatality every 1750 years. In other words out of 30 very keen cyclists of myself, with 50 years experience, one would die. Wheras for abverage motorcyclists that's 1 in 7 roughly. A real cause for concern, but probably skewed by the minority who are looneys on them things.

gav

Re:Accidents

Postby gav » 4 Nov 2005, 8:23pm

Distance covered can be very relevant. I don’t have any figures but I assume that flying by space shuttle is incredibly safe per kilometre due to the huge distances covered. However the risk per flight is quite high.

gar

Re:Accidents

Postby gar » 5 Nov 2005, 11:35am

I just wish I had some smilies for that comment by gav !!! COOL!

gar

Re:Accidents

Postby gar » 5 Nov 2005, 11:38am

a cyclist at 33 miles weekly has almost exactly the same risk - over 10,000 years!

What about a cyclists who does 330 miles a week?
Is that 1,000? Is there a tiredness MN? (Mathematical notation)

Andy Tallis

Re:Accidents

Postby Andy Tallis » 5 Nov 2005, 9:25pm

It's still 100 very good lifespans though. Nearly 3 times as long as the motorbiker's figure. I'm sure how much of a factor the tiredness would play as a long distance rider will prrobably also go slower and not be racing around.

gar

Re:Accidents

Postby gar » 6 Nov 2005, 7:24am

You are talking about deaths. The number of serious injuries (legs and arms) for motor cyclists must knock thse figures up by a vast amount.

Recorded extremity injuries for cyclists are not so common. It is either nothing or death/ very serious.

Andy Tallis

Re:Accidents

Postby Andy Tallis » 6 Nov 2005, 8:06pm

I still feel the risks of my hobby and transportation worthwhile. 330m a week is rare for me anyway - it's less than half that at the moment. As many of these risks are likely to be due to aggro drivers and I refuse to give up my rights to bullies I'll keep going with it and just hope that the powers that be will do something to deal with the situation.

Dick Dastardly

Re:Accidents

Postby Dick Dastardly » 7 Nov 2005, 5:06pm

Sportyman- they are! the sustrans route on the North Inches actually goes past the tinky thieving traveller site and this is a hot spot for getting chased by their mental dogs....