Local elections 2021

[mjr]

The article includes a questionnaire which does not ask

Did you think you were voting for Sarah Greene?

The actor (from Normal People, Frank of Ireland, Dublin Murders and more) or the 1980s Blue Peter presenter? Much more likely they knew it was the marketing entrepreneur and a lot of Tory voters either switched or stayed home (turnout down 25%).

[ratherbeintobago]

The article includes a questionnaire which does not ask

Did you think you were voting for Sarah Greene?

The actor (from Normal People, Frank of Ireland, Dublin Murders and more) or the 1980s Blue Peter presenter? Much more likely they knew it was the marketing entrepreneur and a lot of Tory voters either switched or stayed home (turnout down 25%).

It's also Remainia, there's less fear of voting LD to let a hard left Lab government in (both because Corbyn has gone, and because frankly one seat isn't going to affect the majority much) and the Tories are finding out that chasing voters in the 'red wall' is alienating their normal base, and it's hard to ride two horses at the same time.

[Jdsk]

+
Concerns about planning
Concerns about HS2

... and the big one for the future... tactical voting by progressives?

Jonathan

[ratherbeintobago]

Yes, and that.

I think it's reasonable to assume that the drop in Green/Lab vote was people voting tactically to GTTO.

[Jdsk]

... and the big one for the future... tactical voting by progressives?

I think it's reasonable to assume that the drop in Green/Lab vote was people voting tactically to GTTO.

"Electoral pacts and the constitution":
https://consoc.org.uk/publications/elec ... rew-blick/

Recommended.

Jonathan

PS: Odds for Batley and Spen:
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/br ... ion-winner

[Stevek76]

Concerns about HS2

Which is a bit of a weird one given the main party position is in favour. The only party sort of opposed is the English/Welsh greens who exist in an incoherent state of supporting high speed rail, and general rail improvements in principle, but opposing anything as soon as a single tree is threatened (so basically any rail scheme)


As for tactical voting, Labour would be unwise to reply upon that entirely for a general election, I suspect that will need a solid commitment to voting reform to keep people on board. While many floating/green/lib dem voters are hardly enamoured by the conservatives, much of the 2017/19 consolidation was driven by the b word and I think they are much more likely to risk a green/ld vote in the next election.

[Jdsk]

While many floating/green/lib dem voters are hardly enamoured by the conservatives, much of the 2017/19 consolidation was driven by the b word and I think they are much more likely to risk a green/ld vote in the next election.

More on that, please... how did they vote last time and how will they vote next time?

Thanks

Jonathan

[ratherbeintobago]

As for tactical voting, Labour would be unwise to reply upon that entirely for a general election, I suspect that will need a solid commitment to voting reform to keep people on board. While many floating/green/lib dem voters are hardly enamoured by the conservatives, much of the 2017/19 consolidation was driven by the b word and I think they are much more likely to risk a green/ld vote in the next election.

Lab have a few things to sort out. Fairer votes is one of them; it makes sense at a national level as their only realistic way back into power is in coalition (and accusing potential partners of being yellow/green Tories doesn't help with that) but it would severely hamper some of its local government power bases (see the car crash that is City of Manchester, where they have 94/96 councillors off 65% of the vote). Also, they are utterly hopeless on environmental matters and I think that will cause them to lose votes to the Greens if they don't get their act together, and quickly.

While many floating/green/lib dem voters are hardly enamoured by the conservatives, much of the 2017/19 consolidation was driven by the b word and I think they are much more likely to risk a green/ld vote in the next election.

More on that, please... how did they vote last time and how will they vote next time?

Thanks

Jonathan

Fear of JC was apparently a big thing with soft/Remain Conservative voters last time round and overrode concerns about Brexit. With a less threatening (to them) Lab leader, and a shambolic/hard right Tory party, who knows? Can't see soft Tories voting Green though; the UK party is much more to the left than e.g. Germany where it's centre-left.

[thirdcrank]

PS: Odds for Batley and Spen:
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/br ... ion-winner

100:1 still seems to be the price for the Lib Dems which is still in the same sort of range as the Heavy Woollens with no candidate.

[ratherbeintobago]

We’ve not a prayer in B&S. And the candidate dropped out at short notice due to illness to be replaced by someone else; I hope it’s a paper candidacy.

[Stevek76]

More on that, please... how did they vote last time and how will they vote next time?

Thanks

Jonathan

2017/19 was a major reversion to duopoly politics in England/Wales, combined con/lab vote was at the highest it's been for quite some time. My opinion is that was driven heavily by brexit. With the brexit situation now either 'done' or 'no longer short term salvageable' (delete as appropriate) I think that will unwind.

Fptp voting is partly driven by people voting for the 'least worst' option of the two most viable candidates. However the less worse the worst of those two is, the more likely someone will take a punt on their actually favoured candidate. Brexit and, as also pointed out above, Corbyn, were seen as very very bad by a significant number of voters and votes moved accordingly. 'The Tories' by contrast don't hold the same level of dislike that some of the Labour faithful appear to think (or hope) so 'gtto' is unlikely to be a successful electoral strategy, they will need to offer something more to keep those voters on side. Electoral reform would be one of those things.

And yes. It certainly isn't popular in parts of the Labour party (though more and more CLPs are passing motions in favour of it) but I'm not really sure they have a choice any more, they need to ask themselves if they actually want the Tories out but have to share power or if they want to just be the main opposition 90% of the time.

[Jdsk]

Thanks

Jonathan

[[XAP]Bob]

With the brexit situation now either 'done' or 'no longer short term salvageable' (delete as appropriate)

One thing I think everyone can agree is that it isn't "done".

The very recent by-election result will, I hope, push Starmer into heading up a progressive alliance with PR being one of their key aims.
Nothing else will get rid of, and keep rid of, the current ridiculous situation.

[Mick F]

The current ridiculous situation is two-fold.
The Torys and the idiot Johnson.
Get rid of both of them, and we'll get some common sense running the country.

Better still, is get a proper voting system where all the people are represented. First past the post is a silly system and way way WAY past its sell-by date.

[Stevek76]

One thing I think everyone can agree is that it isn't "done".

Can they? I think as far as voter perception goes, for a reasonable proportion it's 'done' at present in the sense that it's no longer dominating the news cycle.