Has cycling's 'new golden age' been and gone?

User avatar
LinusR
Posts: 472
Joined: 24 May 2017, 7:27pm
Location: London
Contact:

Has cycling's 'new golden age' been and gone?

Post by LinusR »

Before Covid I had trouble parking my hack bike outside my flat as usually all the racks are full (I'm in central London). But since lockdown last year it's been no problem. Now the motor traffic is back like it was before but I can still park my bike as most of the racks are empty. That's because the offices are still pretty empty and people WFH.

But what about the rest of the country? Well it looks like the boost for cycling was short-lived with perhaps a marginal increase of leisure cycling on the weekend. That's according to the latest stats from the DfT. https://www.gov.uk/government/statistic ... 9-pandemic

Take a weekday in April 2020 when the UK was in lockdown. All motor vehicle traffic was 40 percent of its normal level; cycling traffic was typically about 160 percent of normal (with peaks of over 300 percent at weekends).

Then take a weekday in April 2021 when a lot of lockdown was released. All motor vehicle traffic was typically 90 percent of normal; cycling traffic was around 100 percent of normal (with peaks of about 160 percent at weekends).

Anyone else looked at these figures?
Screenshot from 2021-06-09 13-53-23.png
Attachments
Screenshot from 2021-06-09 13-55-05.png
mattheus
Posts: 5030
Joined: 29 Dec 2008, 12:57pm
Location: Western Europe

Re: Has cycling's 'new golden age' been and gone?

Post by mattheus »

Then take a weekday in April 2021 when a lot of lockdown was released. All motor vehicle traffic was typically 90 percent of normal; cycling traffic was around 100 percent of normal (with peaks of about 160 percent at weekends).
I read that as a massive bump for leisure riding , and approx 10% (11% ??) for commuting/utilty use. Imagine if we gained 10% every year! :D
Bmblbzzz
Posts: 6249
Joined: 18 May 2012, 7:56pm
Location: From here to there.

Re: Has cycling's 'new golden age' been and gone?

Post by Bmblbzzz »

I read it this way: April 2020 most people were working from home or not working. Most traffic was shopping (and there was much less of that) or leisure. Leisure meant day trips as accommodation was closed. So a boost in day rides (and probably also walking, horse riding and so on). Also, last April and May had gorgeous hot sunny weather, which boosted outdoor activities.

April 2021 most people were back at work, though from home for many or most. Therefore there was less leisure time. The spring was also not as hot and sunny as 2020. After a year of Covid and the start of the vaccination programme, most people had lost their fear of being in shops and so on, so shopping trips were back to normal. It was becoming possible to travel, so people were driving places. Schools went back in March, so school trips, mostly car, back to normal.

So from April 2020 to 2021 the major changes were less leisure time and worse weather. No wonder less cycling.
User avatar
LinusR
Posts: 472
Joined: 24 May 2017, 7:27pm
Location: London
Contact:

Re: Has cycling's 'new golden age' been and gone?

Post by LinusR »

mattheus wrote: 10 Jun 2021, 10:23am imagine if we gained 10% every year! :D
That would take seven years to double cycling trips. Current modal share across the UK is about 1.7 percent. So by 2028 it would double to 3.4 percent, if cycling increased by 10 percent every year. (Source: https://www.cyclinguk.org/statistics)

That is slightly less than the target announced by Grant Shapps (on 9 May 2021) to double cycling by 2025. (https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/ ... 9-may-2020)

In London cycling modal share is about 2.5 percent. In the London Borough of Hackney it is a whopping 8.5 percent.

In my borough: "Camden’s current resident’s mode share by bike – 3.6% – has not changed for a number of years and the policies within the Camden Transport Strategy, and specifically the Cycling Action Plan, aim to address that lack of cycling growth. Our ambition is to double cycle mode share by 2024/25, and double it again by 2041."
User avatar
LinusR
Posts: 472
Joined: 24 May 2017, 7:27pm
Location: London
Contact:

Re: Has cycling's 'new golden age' been and gone?

Post by LinusR »

Bmblbzzz wrote: 10 Jun 2021, 11:25am So from April 2020 to 2021 the major changes were less leisure time and worse weather. No wonder less cycling.
The reason I selected April was that the weather was similar. Both April 20 and 21 were dry - though 21 was much colder.

You comments about leisure rides and people getting back to "normal" I agree with.

There was a brief cycling boom but there has been little meaningful change for the better. And not helped by a shortage in bicycles due to supply problems. I'm not very optimistic.
mattheus
Posts: 5030
Joined: 29 Dec 2008, 12:57pm
Location: Western Europe

Re: Has cycling's 'new golden age' been and gone?

Post by mattheus »

If we ever meet (really meet) any Government targets for active travel (or similar), I would/will take great pleasure!

I think 10% annual increase is a good thing. Also remember that increases in cycling are a double gain in modal share- you're usually getting some peeps out of cars too. Win-win!
Bullseye
Posts: 31
Joined: 29 Jul 2020, 6:45pm

Re: Has cycling's 'new golden age' been and gone?

Post by Bullseye »

I'm very surprised Camdens figures don't match those of Hackney. Camden is closer to the west End and has easy access to central Londons wonderful cycle infrastructure. It baffles me why the mode share is not higher.
I'm in an outer London borough with very little cycling infrastructure and the local council aren't very interested in improving matters.
Lockdown saw a rise in numbers like you mentioned and I think the numbers are back to pre lockdown levels now.
I wish they used the money they were throwing around much better. I really rate the cycle hub scheme they have in Waltham Forest at the train stations. If that was implemented London wide I'm sure you'd see some real growth in cycling.
mattheus
Posts: 5030
Joined: 29 Dec 2008, 12:57pm
Location: Western Europe

Re: Has cycling's 'new golden age' been and gone?

Post by mattheus »

Some discussion that came out of recent LTN debate is that stats will include journeys that are entirely THROUGH your borough
(your residents and the people that work or run businesses there probably don't care for those people!)

I would expect car journeys to be more of those than journeys than by residents.
User avatar
simonineaston
Posts: 7993
Joined: 9 May 2007, 1:06pm
Location: ...at a cricket ground

Re: Has cycling's 'new golden age' been and gone?

Post by simonineaston »

In my view not only has cycling's golden age - new or otherwise - gone, but so has ours... I would say post anaesthetics & antibiotics and pre-computer (as in electronic, not mechanical), so roughly the century twixt 1850 and 1950. All down hill from then on... byyeeeeee
S
(on the look out for Armageddon, on board a Brompton nano & ever-changing Moultons)
User avatar
LinusR
Posts: 472
Joined: 24 May 2017, 7:27pm
Location: London
Contact:

Re: Has cycling's 'new golden age' been and gone?

Post by LinusR »

Bullseye wrote: 10 Jun 2021, 12:36pm I'm very surprised Camdens figures don't match those of Hackney. Camden is closer to the west End and has easy access to central Londons wonderful cycle infrastructure. It baffles me why the mode share is not higher.
Deegan in 2015 found:
Brent and Camden showed notable increases in cycling beyond the control group expectations and both saw reductions in collisions, albeit to different levels. Camden focused mainly on delivering two-way cycle tracks and some of these encountered the same increases in collisions associated with the Tower Hamlets two-way tracks. However, Camden improved conditions along several routes using cycle lanes, 20 mph zones and traffic calming techniques, and this seems to have increased cycling while reducing collisions and effectively offsetting the issues associated with two-way cycle track segregation. Brent’s focus on home zone treatments seems to have been effective but it should also be noted that Brent undertook a large-scale transport improvement project around the Wembley area that could account for the much larger than expected reduction in collisions.
During this period, Hackney developed a unique approach of filtering motorised traffic for the benefit of walking and cycling and this could account for the large increase in the number of people cycling, but the analysis suggests that some areas were prone to pedal cycle collisions. Hackney’s focus on back street filtered permeability rather than main road and junction interventions, where most collisions take place, could account for this.
https://www.icevirtuallibrary.com/doi/1 ... u.15.00001
audaxjk
Posts: 155
Joined: 2 Mar 2020, 4:45pm

Re: Has cycling's 'new golden age' been and gone?

Post by audaxjk »

In the Midlands I’ve noticed a lot more leisure cyclists out and about, all kinds, young/old, Lycra/non Lycra, big groups, racing/non racing bikes, e-bikes & more people from ethnic backgrounds which is great to see.
Some of my work friends who’ve never cycled for years are buying e-bikes and telling me how great it is being out on them.

On my cycle commutes though, I’ve not noticed much of an increase if any.

The one down side is that motorists seem even less tolerant/patient than before lockdown. I think the increase in cyclists is starting to annoy some drivers above their pre-Covid level of tolerance which wasn’t great in itself!

I don’t envy cycle retailers though. They’ve had a good year but I’m sure they are wary of bubble bursting and being overstocked. At least then I’ll be able to source bike spares more easily! Hopefully their workshop trade will keep their turnovers healthy once bike demand does fall away.
djnotts
Posts: 3024
Joined: 26 May 2008, 12:51pm
Location: Nottingham

Re: Has cycling's 'new golden age' been and gone?

Post by djnotts »

audaxjk wrote: 11 Jun 2021, 4:04pm In the Midlands I’ve noticed a lot more leisure cyclists out and about, all kinds, young/old, Lycra/non Lycra, big groups, racing/non racing bikes, e-bikes & more people from ethnic backgrounds which is great ....

The one down side is that motorists seem even less tolerant/patient than before lockdown. I think the increase in cyclists is starting to annoy some drivers above their pre-Covid level of tolerance which wasn’t great in itself!
Very much the same in this part of the Midlands (Nottingham and parts of Leics and Derbyshire).

Local CTC Saturday Easy Rides (25-35 miles) up in numbers (in good weather!), including new comers and those who usually only do the longer Sunday outings. Seen many other groups out, pure roadies all on new carbon to very mixed bunches to families with children of all ages.

I cycle near every day and large numbers of small groups of older/retired folk out.

Judging by amount of completely uncalled for abuse received on Saturday Rides, drivers really don't like sharing roads. And some truly dangerous driving, passing us fast on very narrow roads on blind bends. Probably reason why some seemingly keen first timers don't continue.

I am not a particularly nervous rider but increasingly heading off-tarmac for my daily solo rides.
User avatar
LinusR
Posts: 472
Joined: 24 May 2017, 7:27pm
Location: London
Contact:

Re: Has cycling's 'new golden age' been and gone?

Post by LinusR »

djnotts wrote: 15 Jun 2021, 8:02am I am not a particularly nervous rider but increasingly heading off-tarmac for my daily solo rides.
Yeah, me as well. I only took up off-road riding in a big way five years' ago. One thing I really appreciate as I get older and want to relax and enjoy myself is the complete absence of motor traffic.

The comments about increase in leisure riding seem to be backed up by the statistics. When I lead a group ride I only go on the most quiet country lanes -- routes that I have learned from other riders in the past 25 years -- where drivers are few and far between.

Many of the drivers I think are less patient because there is actually more motor traffic on the road. Except they can't bully other drivers out of the way, only pedestrians, cyclists and horse riders.
Bmblbzzz
Posts: 6249
Joined: 18 May 2012, 7:56pm
Location: From here to there.

Re: Has cycling's 'new golden age' been and gone?

Post by Bmblbzzz »

I also find I place more value on quiet roads than battling with main road traffic nowadays, partly because I'm not as fast (well, I was never actually fast but now I'm just slow) but mostly it's just attitude change. However, I disagree that drivers are less patient now than before the pandemic – I'm finding exactly the opposite.
Stevek76
Posts: 2084
Joined: 28 Jul 2015, 11:23am

Re: Has cycling's 'new golden age' been and gone?

Post by Stevek76 »

Bullseye wrote: 10 Jun 2021, 12:36pm I'm very surprised Camdens figures don't match those of Hackney.
While hackney never had an LTN implemented in a coordinated manner until now it has numerous modal filters put in over decades that amount to much the same end result for large parts of the borough. It also has been steadily ratcheting down parking supply over the years.

It could likely be higher had earlier council leaders not been hostile to good quality cycle tracks on main roads.
The contents of this post, unless otherwise stated, are opinions of the author and may actually be complete codswallop
Post Reply