CYCLISTS ARE OWN BIGGEST DANGER

stewartpratt
Posts: 2566
Joined: 27 Dec 2007, 5:12pm

Re: CYCLISTS ARE OWN BIGGEST DANGER

Postby stewartpratt » 11 Feb 2015, 7:37am

fluffybunnyuk wrote:Composite Risk Index = Impact of Risk event x Probability of Occurrence

Human error 1(assume lowest loss)*18 =18
Mechanical 3(assume low loss)*2=6
Hit by car 25(assuming that all impacts are immediately fatal/highest loss)*0=0

Your welcome to check my maths. This still says human error significantly then mechanical then car.
I'm about done with this topic, theres no point explaining to a brick wall.
I was taught that good risk management will save my life most likely one day(flying). Therefore I use it regularly, and may I say it does just that.


So, in your book eight mechanical defects are cumulatively as bad as being wiped off the face of the planet, and you consider it impossible to be hit by a car.

And you wonder why the only thing listening to you is a brick wall? :)

Vorpal
Moderator
Posts: 17321
Joined: 19 Jan 2009, 3:34pm
Location: Not there ;)

Re: CYCLISTS ARE OWN BIGGEST DANGER

Postby Vorpal » 11 Feb 2015, 8:52am

You are confusing risk with severity of consequences. I agree with fluffybunny that the highest technical risk to a cyclist is likely to be human error, even if her analysis is not necessarily applicable to a population of cyclists.

However, an evaluation such as the one she has done cannot include risk perception or fear of danger. It cannot include intimidation factor, or the near misses and other scary incidents that occur on roads in the UK on a frequent basis for those who cycle daily.

These are all things that can be included in 'danger', which is a vague and imposing word, unlike risk, which has been clearly and specifically defined by numerous standards organisations.

edited to correct 'human error'
“In some ways, it is easier to be a dissident, for then one is without responsibility.”
― Nelson Mandela, Long Walk to Freedom

fluffybunnyuk
Posts: 450
Joined: 1 Sep 2013, 10:58pm
Contact:

Re: CYCLISTS ARE OWN BIGGEST DANGER

Postby fluffybunnyuk » 11 Feb 2015, 8:55am

No i'm saying the biggest risk to a cyclist of an incident regardless of the magnitude is human error, followed by equipment malfunction.

We really need to stop with the paranoia about being hit by a car. Cycling is a relatively safe activity. Yes unfortunately accidents occur, and yes there are alot of people making bad decisions while in charge of a motorised vehicle. However just to check this I will record tomorrow on a cycle into london, and back how many cases of human error i see by a cyclist, how many of equipment malfunction, and how many cyclists i see being hit by a car. If the posts on here by others are to be believed I should see carnage on the road with cars hitting cyclists more than every 10minutes. I think that scenario unlikely, but good data being the source of all hypothesis means I should check anyway.

I'm happy to predict approx 90%+ of the result will be human error. I might see maybe 1 or 3 equipment issues. And if im unlucky 1 cyclist being hit, or side swiped by a car.
So lets see...

EDIT: haha vorpal posted before i could...

However, an evaluation such as the one she has done cannot include risk perception or fear of danger. It cannot include intimidation factor, or the near misses and other scary incidents that occur on roads in the UK on a frequent basis for those who cycle daily.

These are all things that can be included in 'danger', which is a vague and imposing word, unlike risk, which has been clearly and specifically defined by numerous standards organisations.


yes,yes,and yes.

stewartpratt
Posts: 2566
Joined: 27 Dec 2007, 5:12pm

Re: CYCLISTS ARE OWN BIGGEST DANGER

Postby stewartpratt » 11 Feb 2015, 9:09am

You're just not getting this probability vs risk thing, are you?

The probability of it raining this year has almost nothing whatsoever to do with the risk of me drowning.

I'm not worried about rain.

fluffybunnyuk
Posts: 450
Joined: 1 Sep 2013, 10:58pm
Contact:

Re: CYCLISTS ARE OWN BIGGEST DANGER

Postby fluffybunnyuk » 11 Feb 2015, 9:22am

Oh and do i practice what I preach...of course not I'm human, and get caught up in the moment. Flicking fingers at car drivers who try and squeeze past me when im in primary is a pet hobby.
It is interesting to note I posted on wanting to improve my cycling skills or a refresher from someone more experienced, and I had only 1 reply. With aeroplanes good management means a regular review of skills, and continual assessment of risk. I try hard to keep a log of incidents, and try to learn from them how to avoid incident in the future on the road.
Most of my log contains dumb things I did for one reason or another (another hobby is self-justification for my actions on the road), and I wish it wasnt so.

kwackers
Posts: 13768
Joined: 4 Jun 2008, 9:29pm
Location: Warrington

Re: CYCLISTS ARE OWN BIGGEST DANGER

Postby kwackers » 11 Feb 2015, 9:26am

fluffybunnyuk wrote:Oh and do i practice what I preach...of course not I'm human, and get caught up in the moment. Flicking fingers at car drivers who try and squeeze past me when im in primary is a pet hobby.
It is interesting to note I posted on wanting to improve my cycling skills or a refresher from someone more experienced, and I had only 1 reply. With aeroplanes good management means a regular review of skills, and continual assessment of risk. I try hard to keep a log of incidents, and try to learn from them how to avoid incident in the future on the road.
Most of my log contains dumb things I did for one reason or another (another hobby is self-justification for my actions on the road), and I wish it wasnt so.

I think the basic problem is your message is confusing. I've no idea what point you're trying to make.
A few posts back you were claiming people should have more punctures or chains coming off than being hit by a car, now your saying the biggest risk is human error - which presumably includes the drivers of the cars that hit you!

fluffybunnyuk
Posts: 450
Joined: 1 Sep 2013, 10:58pm
Contact:

Re: CYCLISTS ARE OWN BIGGEST DANGER

Postby fluffybunnyuk » 11 Feb 2015, 9:27am

You're just not getting this probability vs risk thing, are you?

The probability of it raining this year has almost nothing whatsoever to do with the risk of me drowning.

I'm not worried about rain.


*sigh* rain is a risk factor. you may not drown, but it may be the first thing in a chain of events. You may end up not braking as quick as you intended, this may lead you to sliding into a car.
Are you really not worried about rain? I worry about rain especially when I go over painted lines, or round corners, or consider braking times. But then I like to reduce my risk...

fluffybunnyuk
Posts: 450
Joined: 1 Sep 2013, 10:58pm
Contact:

Re: CYCLISTS ARE OWN BIGGEST DANGER

Postby fluffybunnyuk » 11 Feb 2015, 9:30am

I think the basic problem is your message is confusing. I've no idea what point you're trying to make.
A few posts back you were claiming people should have more punctures or chains coming off than being hit by a car, now your saying the biggest risk is human error - which presumably includes the drivers of the cars that hit you!

No i'm saying the biggest risk to a cyclist of an incident regardless of the magnitude is human error, followed by equipment malfunction.


Which bit of that is confusing you?

kwackers
Posts: 13768
Joined: 4 Jun 2008, 9:29pm
Location: Warrington

Re: CYCLISTS ARE OWN BIGGEST DANGER

Postby kwackers » 11 Feb 2015, 9:32am

fluffybunnyuk wrote:Which bit of that is confusing you?

The contradiction.

If the biggest risk is human error followed by equipment malfunction then I should expect more accidents due to poor driving than mechanical failure (which is what I've found).
But earlier you claimed exactly the opposite.
(Perhaps I've misread something??)

stewartpratt
Posts: 2566
Joined: 27 Dec 2007, 5:12pm

Re: CYCLISTS ARE OWN BIGGEST DANGER

Postby stewartpratt » 11 Feb 2015, 9:34am

fluffybunnyuk wrote:*sigh* rain is a risk factor. you may not drown, but it may be the first thing in a chain of events. You may end up not braking as quick as you intended, this may lead you to sliding into a car.
Are you really not worried about rain? I worry about rain especially when I go over painted lines, or round corners, or consider braking times. But then I like to reduce my risk...


I meant it as an entirely separate metaphor. I did once go face-first into a stream while mountain biking but generally I don't consider drowning to be a cycling risk ;)

fluffybunnyuk
Posts: 450
Joined: 1 Sep 2013, 10:58pm
Contact:

Re: CYCLISTS ARE OWN BIGGEST DANGER

Postby fluffybunnyuk » 11 Feb 2015, 9:37am

i'm sure you have . my thesis was generally that human error is the biggest cause of incident in transportation, then mechanical. Contact with another vehicle comes way down the list, and is often caused by the first 2.

p.s. I've never had a thread before that creates outrage i'm rather happy... :lol:


I meant it as an entirely separate metaphor. I did once go face-first into a stream while mountain biking but generally I don't consider drowning to be a cycling risk ;)


human error :D "CYCLISTS ARE OWN BIGGEST DANGER"
Last edited by fluffybunnyuk on 11 Feb 2015, 9:40am, edited 1 time in total.

Vorpal
Moderator
Posts: 17321
Joined: 19 Jan 2009, 3:34pm
Location: Not there ;)

Re: CYCLISTS ARE OWN BIGGEST DANGER

Postby Vorpal » 11 Feb 2015, 9:40am

stewartpratt wrote:You're just not getting this probability vs risk thing, are you?

The probability of it raining this year has almost nothing whatsoever to do with the risk of me drowning.

I'm not worried about rain.

I have trouble seeing how your analogy applies. Having a mechanical may have very little to do with getting hit by a car, but both are risks involved with cycling. (so is rain)

Risk has a tecnical defintion. The definition is
Risk = Impact of Risk event x Probability of Occurrence

Impact of risk event can include various things, but it is typically representative of the severity of consequences (e.g. delay, minor injury, death & destruction, etc.). The probability of occurrence includes things such as the likelihood of exposure (whether someone is present when a hazard occurs), the probability of an event occurring, etc.

Other risks can be evaluated in this manner. Those are just the ones that fluffybunny selected to demonstrate her analysis.

p.s. I think fluffybunny was playing devil's advocate, and saying that if you look at the definition of risk, a case could be made for cyclists being the biggest danger to themselves. :lol:

p.p.s. several posts have been made since I began writing this, so it is already a bit dated :lol: :lol:
“In some ways, it is easier to be a dissident, for then one is without responsibility.”
― Nelson Mandela, Long Walk to Freedom

stewartpratt
Posts: 2566
Joined: 27 Dec 2007, 5:12pm

Re: CYCLISTS ARE OWN BIGGEST DANGER

Postby stewartpratt » 11 Feb 2015, 9:42am

A question:

If mechanical failure is a greater risk than collision with a motor vehicle, why are there so many campaign groups demanding dedicated infrastructure and so few demanding puncture-proof tyres?

And a bonus question:

How many of the pedal cyclist KSIs in any given year were due to mechanical failure of the pedal cycle? (The records are out there if you need to look them up.) ;)

fluffybunnyuk
Posts: 450
Joined: 1 Sep 2013, 10:58pm
Contact:

Re: CYCLISTS ARE OWN BIGGEST DANGER

Postby fluffybunnyuk » 11 Feb 2015, 9:42am

yeah i'm struggling to keep up. so i'll be back on at 6pm to answer the wall of outrage :mrgreen:

stewartpratt
Posts: 2566
Joined: 27 Dec 2007, 5:12pm

Re: CYCLISTS ARE OWN BIGGEST DANGER

Postby stewartpratt » 11 Feb 2015, 9:50am

Vorpal wrote:I have trouble seeing how your analogy applies. Having a mechanical may have very little to do with getting hit by a car, but both are risks involved with cycling.


The point is that the consequences, in terms of injury to me, of either being rained on or having a mechanical are negligible. Mechanicals happen occasionally, rain happens a lot, but neither are things that I worry about (OK, I occasionally entertain the thought of a carbon fork failure at speed, but I'm happy to consider that specific failure to have very low probability; the only one I don't consider to be extremely rare would be a puncture.)

Being hit by a motor vehicle is extremely rare. But I worry about it because should it happen the consequences will likely be catastrophic: at best a visit to hospital and at worst my kids not having a dad anymore.

Rain I don't worry about. Drowning I try to avoid by generally not sharing space with water.

Punctures I don't worry about. Motor vehicle collisions I would like to avoid by not sharing space with motor vehicles.