Is electric the end of the bike as we know it

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horizon
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Re: Is electric the end of the bike as we know it

Postby horizon » 14 Aug 2019, 6:53pm

As everyone knows, I've posted at length on this subject. Fundamentally:

1. I do believe they will become very popular.
2. I do believe that they have a disadvantage for reasonably healthy people in that they require less effort (but that's a health issue not a transport issue).

Having said that, no-one really knows quite where the line will stabilise. I did claim that within five years, a non-powered bicycle will be as quaint as someone using a candle to light their way. I'm happy to row back on that because:

(a) They are still expensive
(b) They still have limits in terms of hills+luggage+distance+speed+charging.
(c) They are still heavy

Usually when a new technology takes over, it is cheaper, lighter, smaller and easier or whatever. Aluminium did tick those boxes, but electric bikes haven't done that. I think we are still waiting for another breakthrough in technology, probably the battery.
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reohn2
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Re: Is electric the end of the bike as we know it

Postby reohn2 » 14 Aug 2019, 7:32pm

horizon wrote:.......... I think we are still waiting for another breakthrough in technology, probably the battery.

Or perhaps better cycling facilities.
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The utility cyclist
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Re: Is electric the end of the bike as we know it

Postby The utility cyclist » 15 Aug 2019, 1:28am

reohn2 wrote:No.
EDIT:- And furthermore as e-bike use increases as it surely will and as a matter of course increasing overall bike use,infrastructure will need to increase as a result and there'll follow a critical mass that government both local and national will not be able to ignore.
I see the e-bike as a saviour of cycling not a curse,of course there'll be some downsides but nowhere near as much as there is now.


What will e-bikes increase cycling to as a % of transportation, say in the next 5 years, 10 years or 20? I'll make a charitable wager that e-cycling will not increase cycling as a whole in any significant way over the next 10 years at least, just as it hasn't in Netherlands. We've not seen any journey increase since the mid 00s in the UK so it's still about the same number of journeys/modal share, just like the Dutch haven't seen any increase in modal share despite some of the older groups buying e-bikes in excess of 45% of all bikes sold (and that was 2016 figures so expect some of the groups to be higher still).
What makes you think e-bikes will increase the modal share in any meaningful way?

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Re: Is electric the end of the bike as we know it

Postby brynpoeth » 15 Aug 2019, 5:08am

A while ago the *revenue* in cycle shops in NL reached 50% for e-bik€$
E-bikes sell for x times more than real bikes, so many more machines without motors were sold than with
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Cunobelin
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Re: Is electric the end of the bike as we know it

Postby Cunobelin » 15 Aug 2019, 6:24am

Ivor Tingting wrote:
skyhawk wrote:Will there come a time when all bikes will have motors and buying a non electric bike will be either next to impossible or used only


People's selfishness and ignorance regarding conserving the planet knows no depths. Even if every single forest has been cut down and all we can see is rubbish all around us up to and beyond the horizon and into the seas, landscapes destroyed for mining to dig out the raw materials to make the motors and batteries for these lazEEEE-bikes, people would still buy them as they are just so firkin lazy and selfish.


Covered previously, that was when you claimed to be able to discern people's disabilities, pulmonary and cardiac health with a single glance from a distance, and called disabled people who you judged on these criteria lazy


We had it in our grasp, the humble bicycle, but no the greed and laziness of people had to ruin it. Look what has happened in China. Literally huge mountains of abandoned redundant surplus to requirement bicycles.

For completely different and unconnected reasons. INcluding a massive Government push on car ownership. At the moment in China cycling is undergoing a revival, with an increase in bike sales, especially e=bikes.


The same happened to sail and the clippers when steam ships came in which also died a death when aviation started. Now most of our cargo is moved by huge diesel powered supertankers. Sail died a death a long long long time ago. Traditional cycling ALL YOUR OWN EFFORT will go the same way. People just don't care. It's depressing and upsetting.


You forgot the use of horses and the decline of walking when most cargoes became transferred by horsepower. It was the death of walking?



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Cunobelin
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Re: Is electric the end of the bike as we know it

Postby Cunobelin » 15 Aug 2019, 6:30am

Ivor Tingting wrote:
People's selfishness and ignorance regarding conserving the planet knows no depths. Even if every single forest has been cut down and all we can see is rubbish all around us up to and beyond the horizon and into the seas, landscapes destroyed for mining to dig out the raw materials to make the motors and batteries for these lazEEEE-bikes, people would still buy them as they are just so firkin lazy and selfish.


A superb argument for the banning of ALL bikes when compared to the use of walking

People's selfishness and ignorance regarding conserving the planet knows no depths. Even if every single forest has been cut down and all we can see is rubbish all around us up to and beyond the horizon and into the seas, landscapes destroyed for mining to dig out the raw materials to make bicycles. , People would still buy them as they are just so firkin lazy and selfish to walk.

Oldjohnw
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Re: Is electric the end of the bike as we know it

Postby Oldjohnw » 15 Aug 2019, 6:37am

I do wonder if Mr Tingling rides a carbon bike.
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rfryer
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Re: Is electric the end of the bike as we know it

Postby rfryer » 15 Aug 2019, 6:53am

Oldjohnw wrote:I do wonder if Mr Tingling rides a carbon bike.

No, a hobby horse! :lol: :lol:

reohn2
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Re: Is electric the end of the bike as we know it

Postby reohn2 » 15 Aug 2019, 8:12am

The utility cyclist wrote:What will e-bikes increase cycling to as a % of transportation, say in the next 5 years, 10 years or 20? I'll make a charitable wager that e-cycling will not increase cycling as a whole in any significant way over the next 10 years at least, just as it hasn't in Netherlands.

I wouldn't like to guess the future of cycling(or anything else FTM)but the e-bike certainly make cycling more attractive to current none cyclists,though TBH it will need an increase in quality cycling infrastructure for cycling to really take off in the UK alongside the e-bike.


We've not seen any journey increase since the mid 00s in the UK so it's still about the same number of journeys/modal share, just like the Dutch haven't seen any increase in modal share despite some of the older groups buying e-bikes in excess of 45% of all bikes sold (and that was 2016 figures so expect some of the groups to be higher still)

The Netherlands is a saturated market in the sense that almost everyone cycles,so any increase of the percentage of the population in that country is unlikely,not forgetting NL has a comprehensive cycle network and a positive outlook on cycling,something the UK is well behind the wisdom of as yet,perhaps we'll wake up to it and see sense for once.

What makes you think e-bikes will increase the modal share in any meaningful way?

As I say the future is hard to predict but as restrictions on private motors(certainly ICE powered ones)in larger towns and cities increases the number of people will look to other means of short haul travel,the e-bike is ideally placed as an alternative IMO,call me an optimist if you like but at some point there'll have to be more restrictions on car use in densely populated areas.
Perhaps that's where the growth will be initially,London has seen a large increase in cycling in the past 10 to 15 years despite only partial cycle friendly infrastructure which itself leaves a lot to be desired.

EDITED for typos and clarity
Last edited by reohn2 on 15 Aug 2019, 9:30am, edited 3 times in total.
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Carlton green
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Re: Is electric the end of the bike as we know it

Postby Carlton green » 15 Aug 2019, 8:23am

reohn2 wrote:No.
EDIT:- And furthermore as e-bike use increases as it surely will and as a matter of course increasing overall bike use,infrastructure will need to increase as a result and there'll follow a critical mass that government both local and national will not be able to ignore.
I see the e-bike as a saviour of cycling not a curse,of course there'll be some downsides but nowhere near as much as there is now.


Plus one.

Use of ordinary bikes will still continue and might even grow. Just because an alternative choice becomes available the existing choice doesn’t always become bad or totally displaced, sometimes it’s a case of just having a greater variety of working alternatives to pick from.

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Re: Is electric the end of the bike as we know it

Postby Audax67 » 15 Aug 2019, 1:17pm

Just imagining the horror of an all-eBike future:

- shared paths beset by droves of pedestrians on eBikes who don't know how to switch off their 120-lux headlamps, or don't want to. "I think it's safer," confides Aunt Millie, a former Miss Blue Rinse of Tottenham, to our reporter. Full story p3.

- Paris-Brest-Paris charging stations strung out over 5 km around each control

- Tour de France team cars replaced by trucks carrying half a ton of batteries each

- Thieves leave the bikes and take the batteries. Thousands left immobile a whole kilometre from home.
Have we got time for another cuppa?

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Cunobelin
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Re: Is electric the end of the bike as we know it

Postby Cunobelin » 15 Aug 2019, 7:29pm

Audax67 wrote:Just imagining the horror of an all-eBike future:

- shared paths beset by droves of pedestrians on eBikes who don't know how to switch off their 120-lux headlamps, or don't want to. "I think it's safer," confides Aunt Millie, a former Miss Blue Rinse of Tottenham, to our reporter. Full story p3.

- Paris-Brest-Paris charging stations strung out over 5 km around each control

- Tour de France team cars replaced by trucks carrying half a ton of batteries each

- Thieves leave the bikes and take the batteries. Thousands left immobile a whole kilometre from home.


Which really epitomises the structured, informed and intelligent argument against e-bikes.

Oldjohnw
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Re: Is electric the end of the bike as we know it

Postby Oldjohnw » 15 Aug 2019, 7:46pm

If they are pedestrians they can't be on bikes.
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kwackers
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Re: Is electric the end of the bike as we know it

Postby kwackers » 15 Aug 2019, 10:04pm

Oldjohnw wrote:If they are pedestrians they can't be on bikes.

I think it's meant to be dismissive of the sorts of cyclists we'll end up with.
POB will no longer mean "person on bike" but "pedestrian on bike", the sort of person who dares to call themselves a cyclist whilst doing no cycling and having no experience.
Cycling is an art form and should only be practised by experienced artisans on proper bicycles.

He's right about the 120 lux lights though, bane of my life, although not ebike users but regular cyclists who buy cheap 'n cheerful unfocused Chinese lighthouses off eBay and ride along enjoying the huge circle of light that precedes them whilst the rest of us are pretty much forced to a stop because we can't see where we're going.

whoof
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Re: Is electric the end of the bike as we know it

Postby whoof » 15 Aug 2019, 11:33pm

Two people who formally drove to work have recently converted or are thinking of doing so to e-bikes.
The first has been riding one for four years. After this the battery needed replacing and it went in for a service. It needed new windings for the motor and the total cost of the service was £800! six months later it's now off the road again as water ingress into the control system has killed one of the circuit boards and he's in dispute with the manufacturer. The up side is that currently he's still riding in but on an old Dawes Galaxy.
We have a scheme were you can try an ebike for two weeks for free. A lady tried cycling to work and found the final hill, approximately a mile about 10% she described as almost killing her. Today she came in on a borrowed ebike about 10 miles pedalling on the flat and said she loved it. The only thing that might put her off is the high costs. But again the good news is she hopes to provide some input on the hill to increase her fitness with the possibility to by able to provide the power to get up the hill under her own steam one day. She might not ever get there but the ebike is better than driving.

Personally I can't see the costs of batteries or motors coming down in price very much which makes ebikes as either very expensive or poor quality. This will either deter a lot of people from buying them or of they have a low quality one will put them off as they start to fall to pieces and the costs of repair turn out to be about the same as a new bike.