Mick F wrote:Spring is called spring coz stuff springs into life after the winter sleep. The USA call autumn - fall - because that's when the leaves fall.
Spring and autumn are movable feasts. They can be early or late. They can start, then stall, then start again. You cannot set your watch by them nor rely on a calendar. They vary with where you are. Your springs and autumns can be before or after mine or even at the same time.
From an ecological perspective spring is getting earlier known as phenology. Here in Cumbria it is 0.4 days per year since 1950 on average, obviously some years will have bigger changes in each direction. This is based on various indicator organisms.
I keep a diary with respect to when we can first pick our daffs up in the wood. Exposed up there, and no warm south-facing slopes either. All growing wild left over from when the valley was famous for soft fruit and flowers.
They'll be ready for picking when the heads start to bend, and it'll be a few days yet, so it'll be early February. Record so far since living here:
2016 - 29th Jan 2004 - 5th Feb 2005 - 8th Feb 2008 - 9th Feb 2018 - 9th Feb 2007 - 10th Feb 2013 - 13th Feb 2002 - 16th Feb 2012 - 17th Feb 2017 - 19th Feb 2000 - 21st Feb 2001 - 22nd Feb 2003 - 23rd Feb 1998 - 24th Feb 2011 - 26th Feb 2009 - 26th Feb 1999 - 27th Feb 2014 - 2nd Mar 2015 - 6th Mar 2006 - 10th Mar 2010 - 16th Mar
Sort them by year, and list it as 'days into the year' - then give it a scatter plot and see if there is any patter.
A shortcut has to be a challenge, otherwise it would just be the way.No situation is so dire that panic cannot make it worse. There are two kinds of people in this world: those can extrapolate from incomplete data.
[XAP]Bob wrote:Sort them by year, and list it as 'days into the year' - then give it a scatter plot and see if there is any patter.
Do your own scatter plot. Re-arranged them on a spread sheet.Daffs2.jpg
The MickF Daffodil Index indicator of spring suggests it is getting earlier 0.2 days per year over this time period. However, the relationship is not statistically significant!
I work with someone who does this for Royal Botanic Garden Edinburgh (I think). There is a family that have kept records for over 100 years on when various flowers come into bud. He uses a penalised regression to estimate the effects of climate change on when they open. In short I think that 20 years isn't long enough, given the large amount of variability inherent in the weather, to find anything statistically significant at the 5% level. Including other measurements such as soil temperature might help, but conversely might just show that flowering has a strong association with soil temperature.
We have loads of bluebells in the wood, but although they are showing above ground, it's usually April/May before they flower.
Off into the wood again shortly. I'll check on our statistically insignificant daffs! We moved here in April 1997, so 1998 was the first year for our daffs.
Mick F wrote:We have loads of bluebells in the wood, but although they are showing above ground, it's usually April/May before they flower.
Off into the wood again shortly. I'll check on our statistically insignificant daffs! We moved here in April 1997, so 1998 was the first year for our daffs.
I've got two dozen chili seeds sitting in an incubator in the kitchen. Looking outside this morning at the ½ inch layer of ice on top of the car... it'll be a while before we move them outside. Our weather station says that this morning was the coldest of the year so far.
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drossall wrote:I'm still giving thanks for what seems like a pretty mild winter (in the south east).
I may yet regret saying that of course
Bit parky out, bit of snow on the ground in the last 36 hrs.....is it your fault then...?..
BTW a lot of natural events don't depend on averages so much as (say) extremes or other peculiar events, eg you might need a week or so above or below a certain temperature, in combination with a certain amount of daylight in order to trigger a certain behaviour. The chances of these trigger events increase with (say) average temperatures, but they are still not guaranteed.
I was up and about just before 6am. First thing I did was to go outside and see the frost by the light of the outside lights. Temp was +1degC By 7.30, it was raining and the temp was up to +3degC. Rain gone now, and it's +4degC and cloudy, but I understand that the temp will drop quite a bit by lunchtime and we may get some snow this afternoon. I remain to be convinced.
BTW, the daffs have another few days yet before they drop their heads. Could even be a week if the temp stays low.
Mick F wrote:I was up and about just before 6am. First thing I did was to go outside and see the frost by the light of the outside lights. Temp was +1degC By 7.30, it was raining and the temp was up to +3degC. Rain gone now, and it's +4degC and cloudy, but I understand that the temp will drop quite a bit by lunchtime and we may get some snow this afternoon. I remain to be convinced.
BTW, the daffs have another few days yet before they drop their heads. Could even be a week if the temp stays low.
Currently 0.8°C here, and the sun is shining. But the sky is clear, so I expect it to be below freezing by four PM.
My wife knows that I'm not driving to get her this evening.
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