Is electric the end of the bike as we know it

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NUKe
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Re: Is electric the end of the bike as we know it

Postby NUKe » 16 Aug 2019, 1:53am

I don’t know why cyclists see ebikes as threat, they are almost a different form of transport, people that ride them would probably have not made that journey by bike.
Last edited by NUKe on 16 Aug 2019, 8:50am, edited 1 time in total.
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Cunobelin
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Re: Is electric the end of the bike as we know it

Postby Cunobelin » 16 Aug 2019, 6:28am

NUKe wrote:I don’t know why cyclists see ebikes as threat, they are almost a different form of transport, people that ride them would probably has not made that journey by bike.



"Cyclists" welcome any form or variation, a few zealots have a personal hatred of electric bikes

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The utility cyclist
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Re: Is electric the end of the bike as we know it

Postby The utility cyclist » 16 Aug 2019, 5:50pm

reohn2 wrote:
The utility cyclist wrote:What will e-bikes increase cycling to as a % of transportation, say in the next 5 years, 10 years or 20? I'll make a charitable wager that e-cycling will not increase cycling as a whole in any significant way over the next 10 years at least, just as it hasn't in Netherlands.

I wouldn't like to guess the future of cycling(or anything else FTM)but the e-bike certainly make cycling more attractive to current none cyclists,though TBH it will need an increase in quality cycling infrastructure for cycling to really take off in the UK alongside the e-bike.


We've not seen any journey increase since the mid 00s in the UK so it's still about the same number of journeys/modal share, just like the Dutch haven't seen any increase in modal share despite some of the older groups buying e-bikes in excess of 45% of all bikes sold (and that was 2016 figures so expect some of the groups to be higher still)

The Netherlands is a saturated market in the sense that almost everyone cycles,so any increase of the percentage of the population in that country is unlikely,not forgetting NL has a comprehensive cycle network and a positive outlook on cycling,something the UK is well behind the wisdom of as yet,perhaps we'll wake up to it and see sense for once.

What makes you think e-bikes will increase the modal share in any meaningful way?

As I say the future is hard to predict but as restrictions on private motors(certainly ICE powered ones)in larger towns and cities increases the number of people will look to other means of short haul travel,the e-bike is ideally placed as an alternative IMO,call me an optimist if you like but at some point there'll have to be more restrictions on car use in densely populated areas.
Perhaps that's where the growth will be initially,London has seen a large increase in cycling in the past 10 to 15 years despite only partial cycle friendly infrastructure which itself leaves a lot to be desired.

EDITED for typos and clarity

Everyone in NL doesn't cycle 74% of all trips are other than by cycle, not even part trips! As per a recent Dutch study it was found that 22% of people travelling and/or commuting would NEVER use a bike for travel.
E-bikes might help in some cases but the stagnation to Dutch cycling is to my mind obvious, it's the infra that is limiting. it is the fact that it's actually more difficult in many places of the country to cycle in nice straight lines without being at threat from continuously crossing motor roads AND importantly not restricting the ability to drive everywhere. There are some towns and small cities where driving is absolutely restricted, these places see very high levels of cycling as a mode of transport, yet elsewhere we actually see much lower rates. Commuting in from the periphery isn't that big either (came from the same study) though some do 13km it's a very small fraction.

If you look at the road network in NL it's actually very inviting, even in small towns it's very easy to get about by car, this is why though the Dutch cycling infra has some advantages it limits its use by its design and want to get people out of the way of motorists, surely you can see that right, if you have fewer people on the roads and easily can drive where you want to then there's little incentive to cycle? Surely you can accept that despite a huge uptake in e-cycles in NL and Germany, this has not had any noticeable effect on the numbers cycling whatsoever, so what you said doesn't ring true, there is as yet no evidence at all that e-cycles increase cycling, just people swapping from normal bikes.

That's not to say that a small number of motorists won't swap but there simply is not enough disincentive to make people change nor enough of the right infra put in place that also acts as a carrot. If its not working in NL where there is plenty of scope for increase so I reject your statement saying they have cycling saturation, then it's not going to work here, we won't have 6% modal share of journeys in 20 years* and personally I think that is a low target!

*unless we have a revolution with regards how people get about on bikes and in cars and move away from the weak segregated infra solution that you and others are calling for.

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Re: Is electric the end of the bike as we know it

Postby reohn2 » 16 Aug 2019, 6:49pm

TUC
If you haven't already I'd recommend you take a trip to NL with a bike,it'll become immediately apparent just how many people do cycle and how good their system is for bike use as a mode of transport and not just as an enthusiast's pursuit.
Motoring isn't banned in NL but it's restricted in towns and cities,that restriction encourages alternative modes of transport.
I get that you aren't in favour of cycling infrastructure and I disagree with you,because IMO unless more decent cycle infrastructure is built in the UK utility cycling levels won't rise much above what they are now.
Last edited by reohn2 on 16 Aug 2019, 7:09pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Is electric the end of the bike as we know it

Postby ThePinkOne » 16 Aug 2019, 6:59pm

E-bikes do seem to have lots of potential for getting car commutors onto (e)-bikes. Something to be celebrated IMO.

If (say) 20% of a workforce switched from cars to e-bike to reach the office/shop, you're heading to the sort of level where things like decent secure cycle parking at workplaces becomes more of a priority. From experience in several workplaces, I think lack of secure cycle parking is a significant barrier (for normal people, not cycling fanatics) to cycling to work; followed by the "getting sweaty so need a shower" barrier- which the e-bike also overcomes.

E-bikes have the advantage of making the cycle journey easier (flattens the hills so it's more like Holland)- they are transport not sport- so people can ride in wearing ordinary clothes and not need a shower on arrival, yet still get to work in a reasonable time. It takes away the barriers for the usual office/shop worker who is not a sport/cycling fan(atic?).

Purists won't like it, but the lungs of people near congested roads will.

Yes, e-bikes can be pricey if they have an problem- but have you seen the cost of parts for cars these days? Compare the cost of running an e-bike to a commmuter car and it's favourable.

Neither the moped nor the motorbike was not the end of the "bike as we know it" and nor do I expect the e-bike to be.

What we really need is a significant e-bike manufacturer to learn from the cars makers and develop/market e-bikes in a comparible way to how small cars are developed/sold- maybe even leasing schemes. Just listen to the car adverts on a commercial radio station- the way they make cars an object of desire- it's very sophisticated (and it works). That's where/how the e-bike needs to be promoted as a car alternative, and of course once people have sunk money into a form of transprt they tend to use it more (like cars).........

TPO

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Re: Is electric the end of the bike as we know it

Postby skyhawk » 17 Aug 2019, 11:53am

whoof wrote:Do you mean in the same way that the invention of the motor boat brought about the end of swimming, sailing and rowing? Or that the advent of the mobility scooter has resulted in no one other than a few extremist ramblers walking?



good point
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Re: Is electric the end of the bike as we know it

Postby Audax67 » 17 Aug 2019, 1:50pm

Cunobelin wrote:
Audax67 wrote:Just imagining the horror of an all-eBike future:

- shared paths beset by droves of pedestrians on eBikes who don't know how to switch off their 120-lux headlamps, or don't want to. "I think it's safer," confides Aunt Millie, a former Miss Blue Rinse of Tottenham, to our reporter. Full story p3.

- Paris-Brest-Paris charging stations strung out over 5 km around each control

- Tour de France team cars replaced by trucks carrying half a ton of batteries each

- Thieves leave the bikes and take the batteries. Thousands left immobile a whole kilometre from home.


Which really epitomises the structured, informed and intelligent argument against e-bikes.


It's not an argument against eBikes, it's simply a reductio-ad-absurdum image of what might happen if, as the thread title suggests, eBikes are the end of the Bike as We Know It.

I.e. it's another way of saying no they're not.
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The utility cyclist
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Re: Is electric the end of the bike as we know it

Postby The utility cyclist » 17 Aug 2019, 3:50pm

NUKe wrote:I don’t know why cyclists see ebikes as threat, they are almost a different form of transport, people that ride them would probably have not made that journey by bike.


They are a greater threat to the safety of everyone including the user, we've read on here the exultation of users being able to go faster, we already know that since e-bikes increased significantly in use/purchases by the older age groups in NL that the deaths increased in those age groups alone whilst all the other groups dropped significantly. The deliberate lies/ignoring of the facts by those in NL and stating that it's nothing to do with e-bikes is disgusting frankly. There are a few reasons why e-bikes give cause to more reckless/dangerous actions deliberate or not and I've mentioned them several times over, but people don't want to acknowledge what we already know to be true.

That's not to say we can't modify matters, lower top speed (12mph is more than suffice), lesser acceleration which to me is the bigger problem, people who need/want electric bikes are more likely to come a cropper with higher speeds than they are used to and the acceleration even more so.

Like the Dutch, stop ignoring the facts re the increased dangers posed by and to e-bike users!
And as I've said, e-bikes are not decreasing motor car use, not in the biggest use country in the world were there is despite some saying there isn't, a scope to convert motorists to cycling, it just has not happened so same level of people on bikes but with more deaths solely based on huge swathes of e-bike users in those groups showing a bucking of the trend of fewer deaths. Thus the danger overall has increased since e-bike purchasing has increased.

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The utility cyclist
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Re: Is electric the end of the bike as we know it

Postby The utility cyclist » 17 Aug 2019, 4:00pm

reohn2 wrote:TUC
If you haven't already I'd recommend you take a trip to NL with a bike,it'll become immediately apparent just how many people do cycle and how good their system is for bike use as a mode of transport and not just as an enthusiast's pursuit.
Motoring isn't banned in NL but it's restricted in towns and cities,that restriction encourages alternative modes of transport.
I get that you aren't in favour of cycling infrastructure and I disagree with you,because IMO unless more decent cycle infrastructure is built in the UK utility cycling levels won't rise much above what they are now.


which of these journeys would you rather take, the blue route or the yellow route? This is from just outside of Amsterdam and is not untypical, were is the incentive for people to cycle in from the periphery when it takes you at least twice as far distance wise and increases the opportunities to get squashed because the route crosses multiple more junctions with killing machines? Do you think this encourages people to cycle rather than drive when the blue route is free for you to use as a car driver and not as a cyclist?

Are you going to deny that cycling from just outside built up areas in NL is very low and not increasing, if so what is your evidence? I've looked at the facts and I've looked at the routes in NL and there's nothing to suggest that I'd be wanting to cycle on the specified lanes to get to my destination, it's inherently slower and increases the conflict areas. Or are you going to also deny that the Dutch have a huge death toll at the junctions between cycle lanes and motor roads, it's at least 60 a year FYI.

But back to the point, e-cycling/bikes haven't increased cycling, there's no evidence of it anywhere.
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Re: Is electric the end of the bike as we know it

Postby amaferanga » 17 Aug 2019, 4:35pm

The utility cyclist wrote:
which of these journeys would you rather take, the blue route or the yellow route? This is from just outside of Amsterdam and is not untypical, were is the incentive for people to cycle in from the periphery when it takes you at least twice as far distance wise and increases the opportunities to get squashed because the route crosses multiple more junctions with killing machines? Do you think this encourages people to cycle rather than drive when the blue route is free for you to use as a car driver and not as a cyclist?

Are you going to deny that cycling from just outside built up areas in NL is very low and not increasing, if so what is your evidence? I've looked at the facts and I've looked at the routes in NL and there's nothing to suggest that I'd be wanting to cycle on the specified lanes to get to my destination, it's inherently slower and increases the conflict areas. Or are you going to also deny that the Dutch have a huge death toll at the junctions between cycle lanes and motor roads, it's at least 60 a year FYI.

But back to the point, e-cycling/bikes haven't increased cycling, there's no evidence of it anywhere.


Have you actually cycled in the Netherlands?

Your yellow route isn't representative of getting around by bike the the Netherlands in my limited experience of cycling there.

I'm honestly perplexed that you think cycling in the Netherlands is so terrible when they've created infrastructure and a culture where anyone who wants to cycle can cycle in safety.

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Re: Is electric the end of the bike as we know it

Postby reohn2 » 17 Aug 2019, 4:37pm

The utility cyclist wrote:which of these journeys would you rather take, the blue route or the yellow route?

The blue route is a motorway :?

Are you going to deny that cycling from just outside built up areas in NL is very low and not increasing

Have you cycled in NL?

if so what is your evidence

I've ridden there,and seen the system and how it works for cyclists.
What's yours?

I've looked at the facts and I've looked at the routes in NL and there's nothing to suggest that I'd be wanting to cycle on the specified lanes to get to my destination, it's inherently slower and increases the conflict areas

Have you ridden there and had experience of cycling in NL?

Or are you going to also deny that the Dutch have a huge death toll at the junctions between cycle lanes and motor roads, it's at least 60 a year FYI.

From how many cycling Kms or if you like how many hours cycled?

100 cyclists are killed in the UK each year and the Kms or hours ridden are far far far less than NL

But back to the point, e-cycling/bikes haven't increased cycling, there's no evidence of it anywhere.

That's a very jaundiced view of e-bikes

In fact you have a very jaundiced view of cycling unless it's done in the prescribed TUC way
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Re: Is electric the end of the bike as we know it

Postby Cunobelin » 17 Aug 2019, 7:39pm

The utility cyclist wrote:
NUKe wrote:I don’t know why cyclists see ebikes as threat, they are almost a different form of transport, people that ride them would probably have not made that journey by bike.


They are a greater threat to the safety of everyone including the user, we've read on here the exultation of users being able to go faster, we already know that since e-bikes increased significantly in use/purchases by the older age groups in NL that the deaths increased in those age groups alone whilst all the other groups dropped significantly. The deliberate lies/ignoring of the facts by those in NL and stating that it's nothing to do with e-bikes is disgusting frankly. There are a few reasons why e-bikes give cause to more reckless/dangerous actions deliberate or not and I've mentioned them several times over, but people don't want to acknowledge what we already know to be true.

That's not to say we can't modify matters, lower top speed (12mph is more than suffice), lesser acceleration which to me is the bigger problem, people who need/want electric bikes are more likely to come a cropper with higher speeds than they are used to and the acceleration even more so.

Like the Dutch, stop ignoring the facts re the increased dangers posed by and to e-bike users!
And as I've said, e-bikes are not decreasing motor car use, not in the biggest use country in the world were there is despite some saying there isn't, a scope to convert motorists to cycling, it just has not happened so same level of people on bikes but with more deaths solely based on huge swathes of e-bike users in those groups showing a bucking of the trend of fewer deaths. Thus the danger overall has increased since e-bike purchasing has increased.



IIRC one of the biggest factors in the deaths was mounting and dismounting from the cycles......they were neither accelerating, of travelling at speed.


Also, the Dutch Cycling Union has a different view:

The Cyclists’ Union notes that it is striking that the casualties on e-bikes remained stable: 57 in 2018. The electric bike is not so dangerous as some portray it. Most people who are killed while cycling are seniors. Two thirds of all cycling fatalities are between the ages of 50 to 85. It is remarkable that the biggest increase was in the age group between 50 and 60 years of age. The number of deaths over 60 remained stable. This is something the Cyclists’ Union would like to have investigated. Saskia Kluit: “People in their fifties are usually fit and they are not part of a risk group. Do they take more risks on racing bikes or have they taken up cycling to work much more? To do something about this increase we need to know more about the crashes.”


Given that the sales of e-bikes have increased, the accidents should have as well, especially as the majority of e-bike sales are to over 65s - outside the age range where the biggest increase has occurred

In fact to quote the Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management;

A recent study has shown that an electric bicycle in itself is no
more dangerous than ordinary bicycles. The increase in the
number of road casualties among e-cyclists can mainly be
attributed to the increase in the number of older cyclists: a group
with a relatively high risk of traffic accidents and relatively
vulnerable in the event of an accident.



Interesting PDF to download
Last edited by Cunobelin on 17 Aug 2019, 9:19pm, edited 3 times in total.

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Re: Is electric the end of the bike as we know it

Postby brynpoeth » 17 Aug 2019, 7:42pm

Problems getting on and orf
Maybe older gents should be encouraged to use girls bikes without crossbars
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Re: Is electric the end of the bike as we know it

Postby NUKe » 18 Aug 2019, 12:07pm

brynpoeth wrote:Problems getting on and orf
Maybe older gents should be encouraged to use girls bikes without crossbars

If you call them bikes with low step through, then they stop being gender specific, and more people will use them.
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Re: Is electric the end of the bike as we know it

Postby reohn2 » 18 Aug 2019, 1:54pm

I think it's important to understand just how man people in NL cycle well into their 80's and even 90's,which in turn a fall for such elderly people more often may lead death or serious injury,that a young person may just shrug off.
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