1.2 million E bikes sold in Germany

[The utility cyclist]

Well the official data I've seen (ZIV) says it was 980,000 e cycle sales for 2018 but whatever, I've yet to see any data showing a movement from passenger car drivers to e-bikes, looking at the raw data of car sales in Germany it looks like there's no let up in car sales at least, it's been increasing steadily since 2013.
2013 - 2,952,431
2014 - 3,036,773
2015 - 3,206,442
2016 - 3,361,307
2017 - 3,441,262
2018 - 3,435,778
So the 980k/1.2m e-bike sales are clearly not impinging on car sales in the slightest, which pretty much tells you all you need to know, e-bikes aren't replacing cars/people driving to work despite the noise of what Germany wants to do which sounds great on paper. https://www.bmvi.de/SharedDocs/EN/Dossi ... oming.html

Another graph I saw showed that cycling was rising and car use dropping, this correlated with lower car sales for same period, cycling journeys went up by 17% between 2002 and 2008 https://nationaler-radverkehrsplan.de/s ... e-a-01.pdf
So when I read this statement ...
"In 2002, cycle traffic accounted for 25 million journeys per day, and by 2017 this figure had risen to 28 million journeys per day (plus 13 percent)." https://nationaler-radverkehrsplan.de/e ... nd-walking I thought hang on a minute, cycling had gone up between '02 and '08, so it's actually fallen significantly between '08 and '17, a period when e-bike sales were beginning to really take off, especially in the last half dozen years or so.
So despite all the e-bike sales this has not even brought cycling journeys in germany back to the level they were shown as in 2008!

regarding access financially, average bike sale value per bicycle (incl. e-bikes) In 2018 was 756 euros across all sales channels (source ZIV https://nationaler-radverkehrsplan.de/e ... -5-percent) I haven't been bothered to find out how much an average price is but when you can buy a half decent hybrid for less than £400 in Germany with hub dynamo guards and rack there's certainly a big differential between the cost of an e-bike and something that's perfectly usable sans engine.
https://www.bikester.co.uk/vermont-bren ... 86122.html

[kwackers]

So the 980k/1.2m e-bike sales are clearly not impinging on car sales in the slightest, which pretty much tells you all you need to know, e-bikes aren't replacing cars/people driving to work despite the noise of what Germany wants to do which sounds great on paper

Your assumption seems to be based on the premise that buying a car automatically means car use as opposed to ebike (or even bike) use.

Why do you think that's true?
I have a car, my ebike (and normal bike) replaces a lot of the journeys - in fact the ebike makes a commute possible that I would either do by train or by car.
My car use has thus gone down - but I still own one and am going for a test drive to check out another today because it needs replacing.
When I buy a new car though it won't mean anything other than I've replaced my car.

What's more interesting is how cars are sold these days. Most are 3 year "rentals", folk simply get a new one at the end or their lease period. I suspect a lot of folk stretched their leases during the recession to 4 or even 5 years and are falling back into the 3 year leases which could explain rising car sales.

Do ebikes replace cars?
Obviously not, mine doesn't replace my car.

Do ebike journeys replace car journeys?
That's the real question and a lot more difficult to quantify other than by anecdote.

[Oldjohnw]

My car doesn't replace my ebike or vice versa. Horses for courses.

[The utility cyclist]

So the 980k/1.2m e-bike sales are clearly not impinging on car sales in the slightest, which pretty much tells you all you need to know, e-bikes aren't replacing cars/people driving to work despite the noise of what Germany wants to do which sounds great on paper

Your assumption seems to be based on the premise that buying a car automatically means car use as opposed to ebike (or even bike) use.

Why do you think that's true?
I have a car, my ebike (and normal bike) replaces a lot of the journeys - in fact the ebike makes a commute possible that I would either do by train or by car.
My car use has thus gone down - but I still own one and am going for a test drive to check out another today because it needs replacing.
When I buy a new car though it won't mean anything other than I've replaced my car.

What's more interesting is how cars are sold these days. Most are 3 year "rentals", folk simply get a new one at the end or their lease period. I suspect a lot of folk stretched their leases during the recession to 4 or even 5 years and are falling back into the 3 year leases which could explain rising car sales.

Do ebikes replace cars?
Obviously not, mine doesn't replace my car.

Do ebike journeys replace car journeys?
That's the real question and a lot more difficult to quantify other than by anecdote.

Clearly not as bike journeys have decreased since they've become popular, you did read the data the German's produced, from 2008 cycle journeys have gone down, they went up 17% 02-08, then overall 02-17 by 13% which means a drop jn cycle journeys for that 08-17 period, it's pretty clear they are linked

[The utility cyclist]

My car doesn't replace my ebike or vice versa. Horsa ft courses.

But in Germany bike journeys have reduced as e-bikes started selling in greater numbers which corresponded to increased car sales, not for you but clearly more German's are buying cars and making fewer cycle trips despite the increases in e-bike sales

[bigjim]

I think one concern is the value of E Bikes. Round here an unlocked bike is gone within minutes if it's worth anything and a locked one not much longer, unless it's in plain sight. I use a £30 MTB for a local shopping trip if I don't walk. I wouldn't consider leaving a £1000 E-Bike out of my sight. An E bike is worth more than my car! Saying all that, I had a go on my mechanics new £2500 Focus E-Bike. First time I'd ever been on one. It was brilliant! Such fun! I think I'll hire one next time I'n in Mallorca. Just for the fun.

[Sweep]

I think one concern is the value of E Bikes. Round here an unlocked bike is gone within minutes if it's worth anything and a locked one not much longer, unless it's in plain sight. I use a £30 MTB for a local shopping trip if I don't walk. I wouldn't consider leaving a £1000 E-Bike out of my sight. An E bike is worth more than my car! Saying all that, I had a go on my mechanics new £2500 Focus E-Bike. First time I'd ever been on one. It was brilliant! Such fun! I think I'll hire one next time I'n in Mallorca. Just for the fun.

Yes I see thefts of these things becoming a big thing.

Expect to see lots of stories in the news.

(could it even lead to a reduction in "push bike" thefts?)

I ride round London a lot and use a very nice riding bike - 2 locks, one a bit of a bluff - don't have any great fear of theft as there are a lot of far nicer looking bikes around London than this 90s steel Ridgeback - though they very possibly don't ride anywhere near as well.

Or have Colin's wheels.

apologies for thread drift picking up on theft point.

[kwackers]

Clearly not as bike journeys have decreased since they've become popular, you did read the data the German's produced, from 2008 cycle journeys have gone down, they went up 17% 52-08, then overall 02-17 by 13% which means a drop jn cycle journeys for that 08-17 period, it's pretty clear they are linked

I guess we pick out what we want to read in order to prove our point.
The bit that interested me was that typical journeys by ebike were almost twice as far as by normal bike.
So whilst the number of journeys 'only' increased by 13% the mileage increased by 37%.
Which is not too surprising imo, most folk are going to buy an ebike to do a journey they consider too far to do by bicycle.

[The utility cyclist]

Clearly not as bike journeys have decreased since they've become popular, you did read the data the German's produced, from 2008 cycle journeys have gone down, they went up 17% 52-08, then overall 02-17 by 13% which means a drop jn cycle journeys for that 08-17 period, it's pretty clear they are linked

I guess we pick out what we want to read in order to prove our point.
The bit that interested me was that typical journeys by ebike were almost twice as far as by normal bike.
So whilst the number of journeys 'only' increased by 13% the mileage increased by 37%.
Which is not too surprising imo, most folk are going to buy an ebike to do a journey they consider too far to do by bicycle.

Modal share didn't go up did it, it's gone down. Miles travelled by bike in UK has gone up since the mid 00s, trips haven't nor has modal share.
You do know what modal share means right and that trip numbers are far more important than miles which include leisure miles often by sporting types.?

[kwackers]

Modal share didn't go up did it, it's gone down. Miles travelled by bike in UK has gone up since the mid 00s, trips haven't nor has modal share.
You do know what modal share means right and that trip numbers are far more important than miles which include leisure miles often by sporting types.?

Of course I know what it means, what I'm struggling with is what point you're trying to make.

My cycling mileage has gone up from around 1-2,000 a year to 10,000.
It did so because of my ebike, that to me is a positive. The German studies seem to suggest something similar.
I haven't replaced a bike with an ebike, my "modal" share was one, it's still one. My car mileage has dropped - albeit not by the same as my cycling mileage has risen because a lot of those miles replace public transport but my best guestimate is 1-2,000 car miles replaced.

And obviously as we've seen many times trying to get actual numbers on cycling use and mileage is an inexact science at best.
I'm reminded of the way we determine hedgehog numbers - by counting the number of dead ones we see. The assumption being that hedgehogs behave the same now as they always have.
(Slight aside there but I find that amusing... )

[horizon]

My impression on my recent trip to London was that e-bikes (largely hire bikes, BTW) were being ridden by young people who (a) wouldn't have car in London and (b) don't like the idea of having to pedal too much. I know it's just an impression but impressions can be, you know, quite strong. I noticed OTOH that people who seemed very fast and confident, took "risks" and generally got ahead of me were riding ordinary bikes.

There is a whole cohort of young people whose idea of physical exertion either takes place in a gym or stops at what can be controlled from their smart phone. Throw in a generation raised on dishwashers, lifts to school, cheap flights, escalators and home delivery of hot meals and you have an audience eager for a powered bike. They seem a bit wobbly on them but at least the bikes have a motor and some electronics - familiar territory. I reckon that these young people are switching from public transport (not cars) to hired e-bikes - the roads in London are full of them. And they don't even have to pump up the tyres (that kind of sweat belongs in a gym).

If e-bikes didn't exist and London wasn't fairly anti-car (congestion charge, no new motorways, limited parking etc), these young people would be driving. As it is, they have an excellent public transport system. But e-bikes go one (or more ) better: they are vastly nicer than struggling with the Tube or waiting for crowded buses.

So my conclusion is that e-bikes are taking non-cyclists off public transport, not directly out of cars or off ordinary bikes. I personally don't find that a bad thing. I have been told however by expert witnesses that, come a rainy morning, all bike use falls off dramatically as cyclists of all types head for public transport.

[The utility cyclist]

Modal share didn't go up did it, it's gone down. Miles travelled by bike in UK has gone up since the mid 00s, trips haven't nor has modal share.
You do know what modal share means right and that trip numbers are far more important than miles which include leisure miles often by sporting types.?

Of course I know what it means, what I'm struggling with is what point you're trying to make.

My cycling mileage has gone up from around 1-2,000 a year to 10,000.
It did so because of my ebike, that to me is a positive. The German studies seem to suggest something similar.
I haven't replaced a bike with an ebike, my "modal" share was one, it's still one. My car mileage has dropped - albeit not by the same as my cycling mileage has risen because a lot of those miles replace public transport but my best guestimate is 1-2,000 car miles replaced.

And obviously as we've seen many times trying to get actual numbers on cycling use and mileage is an inexact science at best.
I'm reminded of the way we determine hedgehog numbers - by counting the number of dead ones we see. The assumption being that hedgehogs behave the same now as they always have.
(Slight aside there but I find that amusing... )

I already said it, e-bikes do not increase cycling, so far in Germany since e-bike sales have soared, cycling has gone backwards in terms of trips and modal share, in NL there's been ZERO increase in cycling despite equally impressive e-bike sales.

[Oldjohnw]

My cycling has gone from zero to 2000 miles. Is that increasing or decreasing? My car mileage has dropped by about 7 or 8 hundred out of about 4000.

[kwackers]

I already said it, e-bikes do not increase cycling, so far in Germany since e-bike sales have soared, cycling has gone backwards in terms of trips and modal share, in NL there's been ZERO increase in cycling despite equally impressive e-bike sales.

37% increase in mileage, a third more miles covered by bicycles. Sounds like an increase to me.
So I'm good with that.

[MikeF]

UK Government subsidies for electric vehicles.. Mopeds yes "The grant will pay for 20% of the purchase price for these vehicles, up to a maximum of £1,500. These vehicles have no CO2 emissions and can travel at least 50km (31 miles) between charges:..." Cycles no. The government just doesn't "get it"