Cyclists killed during 'lockdown'

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thelawnet
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Cyclists killed during 'lockdown'

Postby thelawnet » 15 Apr 2020, 12:58pm

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11401111/ ... ed-london/ - Rachel Brown, 25, killed in Worcester Park, 7 april, A24, 2 vehicle collision

https://uknip.co.uk/2020/04/15/driver-a ... collision/ - male cyclist 50s, A244/A308, Staines, Mercedes CLK coupe, 13 April

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wale ... r-18090854 Paul Heenan, 40, Ebbw Vale, Peugeot 108, 10 April

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... lesey.html Robert Holmes, 36, Menai Suspension Bridge , 9 April

https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey ... n-18074418 Male cyclist, 60s, killed by van. Compton, Guildford

https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/no ... s-18077993 Male cyclist, 65, North Shields, killed by car. 8 April

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news ... 80095.html Moira, County Down, 26 March, male cyclist, Seat Leon

http://camdennewjournal.com/article/cyc ... uston-road Euston Road, 26 yo male, collision with motorbike

https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/m ... r-18049808 Simon Morgan, 57, Balsall Common, April 3

https://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/news/c ... y-17988527 25 March, 'elderly' male, van

There are around 100 fatailities per year on average, so at least 10 in 3 weeks on quieter roads seems disproportionate.

kwackers
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Re: Cyclists killed during 'lockdown'

Postby kwackers » 15 Apr 2020, 1:49pm

Quieter but faster traffic.

TBH I always felt safer on the dual carriageways cycling into Liverpool town centre during the rush hour than I do cycling along country lanes.
Quiet != safe.

Mike Sales
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Re: Cyclists killed during 'lockdown'

Postby Mike Sales » 15 Apr 2020, 1:59pm

In the Thirties many fewer drivers killed ten times as many as today, though this was in part because there were many more vulnerable road users.
John Adams's Risk has a striking graph of road death rates in Germany pre and post war. Immediately after the war many fewer drivers had a much higher death rate than pre-war. The rate was similar to the rather earlier pre-war death rate produced by a similar number of vehicles.

Marcus Aurelius
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Re: Cyclists killed during 'lockdown'

Postby Marcus Aurelius » 15 Apr 2020, 2:19pm

The roads aren’t that less busy round my way, than they usually are, especially at times people seem to presume they’re less likely to get caught. Any reduction in numbers is outweighed by some of the speeds I’ve seen. Add in the increase of new / novice riders, that have appeared of late, and it’s perhaps not surprising that the disproportionality, you have reported, exists.

Psamathe
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Re: Cyclists killed during 'lockdown'

Postby Psamathe » 15 Apr 2020, 2:24pm

Roads pretty much the same as usual round me. I'm normally on single track lanes but the other day on one where I might rarely meet one car I had to stop for 4 and one stopped for me (so much busier). sun evening (after a day when supermarkets were closed) still reasonable traffic (though 17:00-18:00 maybe carers heading home after helping evening meal for those they help?) - but still reasonable number of cars on B roads.

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ossie
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Re: Cyclists killed during 'lockdown'

Postby ossie » 15 Apr 2020, 6:15pm

Thats sad reading those cases. I lost a close relative last year, wiped out through no fault of their own.

That said there are plenty of inexperienced cyclists out, good weather encouraging it and some motorists driving like lunatics thinking the Police must have all been furloughed off. I've also seen plenty of lunatic cycling.

I've just done a 40 miler. On a 'fast' country lane a mother and her two kids (must have been 8-10) on bikes wobbling all over the place entered a sharp downhill bend in the middle of the road. A van comes around the corner, theres a scream and luckily by the skin of their teeth it misses them.

I've seen people on bikes with families who have absolutely no road sense, on roads I would never take a child of mine down. They must think they're back in the Dordoigne or Provence on quiet country lanes.

I've been scalped on up hills by old folk on e bikes more intent on the overtake than what's ahead of them and with no idea how to safely negotiate a descent. I've seen whole families walking their cycles up steep hills, so clearly unfamiliar with the route.

Around my area its gone absolutely manic with cyclists which is a good thing of course, I just wish some would wise up and likewise motorists would slow down and not treat the quieter roads like race tracks.

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mjr
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Re: Cyclists killed during 'lockdown'

Postby mjr » 15 Apr 2020, 6:42pm

thelawnet wrote:There are around 100 fatailities per year on average, so at least 10 in 3 weeks on quieter roads seems disproportionate.

It's high, but not significantly so yet. Here's a quick and dirty statistical test assuming everything else is ordinary:

> poisson.test(10,3,100/52,conf.level=0.9)

Exact Poisson test

data: 10 time base: 3
number of events = 10, time base = 3, p-value = 0.09009
alternative hypothesis: true event rate is not equal to 1.923077
90 percent confidence interval:
1.808469 5.654073
sample estimates:
event rate
3.333333

The 90 percent confidence interval (which I used because this is arguably social science and that's what I'm used to) includes the expected rate of 1.923077 per base time unit (a week), so this isn't quite far enough out to say the observed rate is significantly different from 100 deaths per 52 weeks at a 90% confidence level.

It's a bit close to the edge, though. Maybe someone has a good argument why I should use a different test, but many event rates are close enough to Poisson distribution.
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gbnz
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Re: Cyclists killed during 'lockdown'

Postby gbnz » 15 Apr 2020, 6:59pm

ossie wrote:
Around my area its gone absolutely manic with cyclists which is a good thing of course, I just wish some would wise up and likewise motorists would slow down and not treat the quieter roads like race tracks.


+ 1. I'd normally see perhaps 1, 2 at the most on a 45 mile round to town. Must have been a good 40-50 out today (NB. It's been fairly consistent over the last couple of weeks)

Though the road biker who decided to overtake a double decker bus on a downhill stetch, after it had slowed for a 90 degree bend, on a heavily overshaded country road was a bit stupid. ThoughI was quite happy with my wave of thanks from the council bin wagon, after realizing they didn't have a chance to overtake for the next mile or so, so pulled up onto the grass verge :wink:

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mjr
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Re: Cyclists killed during 'lockdown'

Postby mjr » 15 Apr 2020, 7:11pm

gbnz wrote:Though the road biker who decided to overtake a double decker bus on a downhill stetch, after it had slowed for a 90 degree bend, on a heavily overshaded country road was a bit stupid.

Sounds it. I guess as more people are on bikes, there's more chance of seeing an idiot on a bike.

Another thing that may mean an increase in crashes is that more of the remaining motorists are probably idiots who shouldn't really be out, driving like idiots, with less restraint because of fewer non-idiots driving in front of them.

As you report a 2000ish% increase in number of cyclists, I wonder if the amount of cycling has increased so much that even the 75% increase in deaths that started this topic is actually a reduction in the death rate?

Personally, the high idiot-motorist proportion means I'm currently preferring to ride more on bits of the highway where motorists shouldn't be (cycleways) and highways and bridleways either not available to them or unattractive to them, but I know that's controversial with some on here.
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Marcus Aurelius
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Re: Cyclists killed during 'lockdown'

Postby Marcus Aurelius » 15 Apr 2020, 7:14pm

I got squeezed by a close passing motorist who thought it was great idea to overtake me as I reached a traffic island, despite me moving towards the island in plenty of time for them to have got the message, that the pass was never on, on my commute to work tonight. It must be a sign of the times, that the first thing I thought was ‘I wonder what that pillock is even doing on the road’ rather than ‘astonishing did that clown think they were doing trying to squeeze past there’. I could have got closer to the island to completely prevent the idiot pass, but that could have been interpreted as a deliberate block ( Sky fairy forbid ) and the vast majority of motorists wouldn’t have tried to squeeze through the gap I did leave. There was a mahoosive pot hole by the island anyway, which wouldn’t have been wise to risk riding over on a bike, so I thought it wise to not ride any closer to the island than I did. I hope it damaged the stupid driver’s car.

Marcus Aurelius
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Re: Cyclists killed during 'lockdown'

Postby Marcus Aurelius » 15 Apr 2020, 7:24pm

mjr wrote:Personally, the high idiot-motorist proportion means I'm currently preferring to ride more on bits of the highway where motorists shouldn't be (cycleways) and highways and bridleways either not available to them or unattractive to them, but I know that's controversial with some on here.


The problem then, is that you get a lot of people out walking their dog(s) for the hundredth time that day, who have completely misinterpreted the 2m spacing rule, on the infrastructure, or don’t know what 2m actually looks like. An expert who was interviewed on the daily BBC ‘Coronavirus update’ programme a couple of days ago, clarified the rule. It was initially 3 feet ( just under a meter ) as recommended by the W.H.O. Then that was misinterpreted as 3 feet each ( leading to the 2 meter guidance ). Then that was further misinterpreted by lots of people to mean that it applied to static extended proximity, and fleeting passing proximity equally. She clarified that in her expert medical opinion, a fleeting pass, doesn’t qualify, only extended static proximity ( standing within 6 feet of someone for more than a couple of minutes ) does. Yet another case of people making new rules up in their head / misinterpreting the rules.

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Paulatic
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Re: Cyclists killed during 'lockdown'

Postby Paulatic » 15 Apr 2020, 7:29pm

A lot more cyclists around on my ride today and of course some are inexperienced or not thinking because there is little traffic. Observed a lady negotiating a roundabout following the circuitous cycle path I was in the road. As is the manner of those paths it throws you out at right angles to the carriageway she wanted. She didn’t stop just got her full bike onto the lane and then you could see it dawn on her there might be traffic. She stopped and thankfully the car coming along stopped. I was nearly a witness :oops:
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Postboxer
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Re: Cyclists killed during 'lockdown'

Postby Postboxer » 15 Apr 2020, 7:49pm

There may also be a lot of frequent cyclists who now have a lot more free time, so are going out every day rather than only on weekends, or people who do short commutes but now have all day to go for a longer ride into different areas.

roubaixtuesday
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Re: Cyclists killed during 'lockdown'

Postby roubaixtuesday » 15 Apr 2020, 8:46pm

That's a shocking death toll, even with the rightful statistical caution from mjr.

RIP.

My experience has been a perception of steadily increasing speed and recklessness from drivers whilst this has gone on.

Govt should be educating, and plod enforcing motorways behaviour.

andrewwillans49
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Re: Cyclists killed during 'lockdown'

Postby andrewwillans49 » 16 Apr 2020, 6:28am

Cyclists killed anytime is very sad let alone during lock down. FWIW, when cycling on minor roads I always pull over to let motorised traffic pass. I ride the same few 30 mile circular routes and know the danger points and am particularly alert on blind bends, to some extent assume a tractor is coming towards me.
Each death is a personal tragedy, and the incident is unique to that case. Of course there are careless and reckless drivers, as there are cyclists. A cyclist is always going to come off badly in a collision with a car or other motor vehicle. My advice, yield to cars every time, even if you've right of way, and get over "I have right of way mentality".
Here in my area, we have the Letchworth Greenway. It's a 13mile circular route 90% off road, mixed usage. Cyclists, walkers, dog walkers, joggers, all on this shared space. Some observe 2M distancing many don't. I find cyclists the least considerate by a long way. I generally avoid this route.
Pick your battles, stay safe everone.