Truly Weird... a Fausto Coppi coincidence
Truly Weird... a Fausto Coppi coincidence
There is a nine minute podder on BBC about Fausto Coppi. Started to listen to it as set off for dog walk this morning. Was passed by ony 1 cyclist who was riding a Fausto Coppi. The Yellow version ridden by Luc Leblanc, Axel Merckx etc. Sure you have not been able to buy those in UK for 15-20 years.
Very strange!
Very strange!
Last edited by DAV_1965 on 25 May 2020, 7:38am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Truly Weird...
Confirmation bias
Entertainer, juvenile, curmudgeon, PoB, 30120
Cycling-of course, but it is far better on a Gillott
We love safety cameras, we hate bullies
Cycling-of course, but it is far better on a Gillott
We love safety cameras, we hate bullies
Re: Truly Weird...
A remarkable coincidence, certainly. But the fact is that if you live long enough you will encounter lots of remarkable coincidences because they do happen occasionally. It would be strange if they didn't.
Re: Truly Weird...
Cyril Haearn wrote:Confirmation bias
It would only be confirmation bias if the OP had used this observation to support a specific hypothesis (e.g. 'God is trying to give me a message') whilst failing to give equal consideration to the trillions of other potential coincidences which haven't happened.
Despite the fact that spooky happenings like this are entirely explicable via statistics, it's surely still worthy of telling the world about though isn't it? Like hitting a hole in one.
Re: Truly Weird...
Maybe the cyclist heard the same podcast the day before and decided to dig the bike out of the back of the garage and take it for a spin.
Re: Truly Weird... a Fausto Coppi coincidence
I should have ran after him for a joint, Northumberland, roadside, homage to il Campionissimo
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Re: Truly Weird... a Fausto Coppi coincidence
DAV_1965 wrote:I should have ran after him for a joint, Northumberland, roadside, homage to il Campionissimo
What's a joint? Is that really what you meant to say
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Re: Truly Weird... a Fausto Coppi coincidence
Many years ago, on holiday our daughter then about 5, wanted a go on the swings in the town park - this happened and we all joined in, much to teh amusement of a local lady who chatted and wished us a good holiday. The next day (about 20 miles away) we met her again whilst walking down a street. We bought a lottery ticket - we still lost
Re: Truly Weird...
DevonDamo wrote:Cyril Haearn wrote:Confirmation bias
It would only be confirmation bias if the OP had used this observation to support a specific hypothesis (e.g. 'God is trying to give me a message') whilst failing to give equal consideration to the trillions of other potential coincidences which haven't happened.
Despite the fact that spooky happenings like this are entirely explicable via statistics, it's surely still worthy of telling the world about though isn't it? Like hitting a hole in one.
No - he wouldn’t have mentioned that he didn’t see an FC.
The other thing is to wonder how many people had listened to the podcast and seen a bike, the likelihood that one of them saw an FC is actually not insignificant.
A shortcut has to be a challenge, otherwise it would just be the way. No situation is so dire that panic cannot make it worse.
There are two kinds of people in this world: those can extrapolate from incomplete data.
There are two kinds of people in this world: those can extrapolate from incomplete data.
Re: Truly Weird... a Fausto Coppi coincidence
The other way of looking at it is, if you where a chap that happened to own a Fausto Coppi and you went out for a ride on it passing maybe hundreds of people on the way, The likelihood of one of them having listened to the podcast isn't that surprising. Still a coincidence, but not as amazing as it may seem at first glance.
Cheers
J Bro
J Bro
Re: Truly Weird...
[XAP]Bob wrote:No - he wouldn’t have mentioned that he didn’t see an FC.
The other thing is to wonder how many people had listened to the podcast and seen a bike, the likelihood that one of them saw an FC is actually not insignificant.
Could you elaborate on your first sentence here? Are you saying that you agree or disagree that the OP's experience is an example of confirmation bias, and why? (I'm interested in anything to do with decision-making and biases etc. as I sometimes have to deal with it as part of my job.)
Re: Truly Weird... a Fausto Coppi coincidence
In the sense that it wasn’t an interpretation suited to prior beliefs it isn’t CB
It is an example of people picking up on rare events - despite the fact that they are common enough to happen quite regularly somewhere..
It is an example of people picking up on rare events - despite the fact that they are common enough to happen quite regularly somewhere..
A shortcut has to be a challenge, otherwise it would just be the way. No situation is so dire that panic cannot make it worse.
There are two kinds of people in this world: those can extrapolate from incomplete data.
There are two kinds of people in this world: those can extrapolate from incomplete data.
Re: Truly Weird... a Fausto Coppi coincidence
[XAP]Bob wrote:In the sense that it wasn’t an interpretation suited to prior beliefs it isn’t CB
It is an example of people picking up on rare events - despite the fact that they are common enough to happen quite regularly somewhere..
Got it - thanks. I wasn't sure whether you were saying it was or it wasn't confirmation bias. I agree: it was just someone spotting and remarking upon an unusual event.
Re: Truly Weird... a Fausto Coppi coincidence
DevonDamo wrote:[XAP]Bob wrote:In the sense that it wasn’t an interpretation suited to prior beliefs it isn’t CB
It is an example of people picking up on rare events - despite the fact that they are common enough to happen quite regularly somewhere..
Got it - thanks. I wasn't sure whether you were saying it was or it wasn't confirmation bias. I agree: it was just someone spotting and remarking upon an unusual event.
Which isn't actually that unusual... it just seems that way when you only roll the dice once.
A shortcut has to be a challenge, otherwise it would just be the way. No situation is so dire that panic cannot make it worse.
There are two kinds of people in this world: those can extrapolate from incomplete data.
There are two kinds of people in this world: those can extrapolate from incomplete data.