2 metre rule

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Syd
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Re: 2 metre rule

Postby Syd » 21 Jun 2020, 9:25am

mjr wrote:
Syd wrote:COVID-19 has a low infectious load compared to flu, for example, and as low as 20 virus particles can cause infection.

Where's that from, please? The numbers I'd seen were around 500-1000. Is 20 just the absolute theoretical minimum?

It was given by virologist Dr Chris Smith during a Q&A session. I can find any footage at the moment.

Jdsk
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Re: 2 metre rule

Postby Jdsk » 21 Jun 2020, 9:32am

Syd wrote:
mjr wrote:
Syd wrote:COVID-19 has a low infectious load compared to flu, for example, and as low as 20 virus particles can cause infection.

Where's that from, please? The numbers I'd seen were around 500-1000. Is 20 just the absolute theoretical minimum?

It was given by virologist Dr Chris Smith during a Q&A session. I can find any footage at the moment.

I don't think that it's known.

There's a page from the Science Media Centre from 24 March, but that's a long time ago in the modern world:
https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-questions-about-covid-19-and-viral-load/
(I've written to them suggesting an update.)

I'll have a look.

Jonathan

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Syd
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Re: 2 metre rule

Postby Syd » 21 Jun 2020, 10:17am

Jdsk wrote:
Syd wrote:
mjr wrote:Where's that from, please? The numbers I'd seen were around 500-1000. Is 20 just the absolute theoretical minimum?

It was given by virologist Dr Chris Smith during a Q&A session. I can find any footage at the moment.

I don't think that it's known.

There's a page from the Science Media Centre from 24 March, but that's a long time ago in the modern world:
https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-questions-about-covid-19-and-viral-load/
(I've written to them suggesting an update.)

I'll have a look.

Jonathan

The figure given by Dr Smith was in the past 10 days. Just can’t recall exactly when. All the days seem the same at the moment

Jdsk
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Re: 2 metre rule

Postby Jdsk » 21 Jun 2020, 10:29am

Is that Chris Smith from Cambridge?
https://www.thenakedscientists.com/users/chris-smith

Jonathan

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Syd
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Re: 2 metre rule

Postby Syd » 21 Jun 2020, 11:12am

Jdsk wrote:Is that Chris Smith from Cambridge?
https://www.thenakedscientists.com/users/chris-smith

Jonathan

Yep

Jdsk
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Re: 2 metre rule

Postby Jdsk » 21 Jun 2020, 11:27am

Thanks. I hadn't heard of him, but that's some good work on public understanding.

I can't find anything more recent on minimum infective dose.

Jonathan

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Cunobelin
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Re: 2 metre rule

Postby Cunobelin » 21 Jun 2020, 11:41am

I see that despite there being no evidence that antibodies confer immunity and that the level of antibodies subsides in many cases to an undetectable level, Prit Patel is again touting the disproven and irresponsible possibility of "Immunity Passports"

Marcus Aurelius
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Re: 2 metre rule

Postby Marcus Aurelius » 21 Jun 2020, 3:02pm

Cunobelin wrote:I see that despite there being no evidence that antibodies confer immunity and that the level of antibodies subsides in many cases to an undetectable level, Prit Patel is again touting the disproven and irresponsible possibility of "Immunity Passports"


I agree, it’s absolute folly to assume that antibodies do in fact confer immunity. The SARS-CoV-2 virus is an absolute bugger of a thing, I’m sure there’s a thousand things we don’t know about it yet, that are going to be significant in the future.

Marcus Aurelius
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Re: 2 metre rule

Postby Marcus Aurelius » 21 Jun 2020, 3:12pm

There’s an Italian medic named Professor Bassetti, who thinks the virus is weakening, to the point where it may just fizzle out by itself. His optimism isn’t widely shared, but what he says does seem to pass the ‘duck test’ as far as proof of the pudding being in the eating is concerned.

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Cunobelin
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Re: 2 metre rule

Postby Cunobelin » 21 Jun 2020, 6:17pm

Marcus Aurelius wrote:
Cunobelin wrote:I see that despite there being no evidence that antibodies confer immunity and that the level of antibodies subsides in many cases to an undetectable level, Prit Patel is again touting the disproven and irresponsible possibility of "Immunity Passports"


I agree, it’s absolute folly to assume that antibodies do in fact confer immunity. The SARS-CoV-2 virus is an absolute bugger of a thing, I’m sure there’s a thousand things we don’t know about it yet, that are going to be significant in the future.


There is recent evidence that antibody levels fall... and rapidly

Antibody levels fall quickly

Jdsk
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Re: 2 metre rule

Postby Jdsk » 21 Jun 2020, 6:26pm

Marcus Aurelius wrote:There’s an Italian medic named Professor Bassetti, who thinks the virus is weakening, to the point where it may just fizzle out by itself. His optimism isn’t widely shared, but what he says does seem to pass the ‘duck test’ as far as proof of the pudding being in the eating is concerned.

Has he published why he thinks this?

Thanks

Jonathan

Marcus Aurelius
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Re: 2 metre rule

Postby Marcus Aurelius » 21 Jun 2020, 9:33pm

Jdsk wrote:
Marcus Aurelius wrote:There’s an Italian medic named Professor Bassetti, who thinks the virus is weakening, to the point where it may just fizzle out by itself. His optimism isn’t widely shared, but what he says does seem to pass the ‘duck test’ as far as proof of the pudding being in the eating is concerned.

Has he published why he thinks this?

Thanks

Jonathan

I don’t know if he’s published anything yet.

Pebble
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Re: 2 metre rule

Postby Pebble » 22 Jun 2020, 9:50am

If I have to pass a cyclist or jogger coming the other way, I'm still closing one eye and holding my breath for as long as possible, can't be too careful with covid

Jdsk
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Re: 2 metre rule

Postby Jdsk » 22 Jun 2020, 9:51am

I turn away and hold my breath. Hadn't thought about the eye...

Jonathan

Jdsk
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Re: 2 metre rule

Postby Jdsk » 22 Jun 2020, 9:51am

Marcus Aurelius wrote:
Jdsk wrote:
Marcus Aurelius wrote:There’s an Italian medic named Professor Bassetti, who thinks the virus is weakening, to the point where it may just fizzle out by itself. His optimism isn’t widely shared, but what he says does seem to pass the ‘duck test’ as far as proof of the pudding being in the eating is concerned.

Has he published why he thinks this?

Thanks

Jonathan

I don’t know if he’s published anything yet.

Thanks

Jonathan