20% is a large change. It is only if you compare it with the 75% that it appears relatively small. And since you are comparing percentages the decrease in commuting could well be higher than the increase in leisure riding.mjr wrote: ↑8 Dec 2021, 12:13amOnly a 20% decrease in utility cycling (which includes commuting), but a 75% increase in leisure cycling, according to the Active Lives Survey for 2020. Where are you getting the large decrease in commuting from?Pete Owens wrote: ↑7 Dec 2021, 10:38am All that happened last year during lockdown was a large decrease in commuting (thus a decrease in safer urban cycling) and a large increase in recreational cycling (thus a corresponding increase in cyclists on less safe rural roads - resulting in an increase in deaths of cyclists on rural roads).
I suspect there may be urban/rural numbers somewhere in the Road Traffic Estimates but I did not find them yet.
The point remains that the
'Cycle deaths soar on rural roads'
headline is simply a consequence of
'Cyclist numbers soar on rural roads'.
Since both trends (the decrease in commuting and increase in rural cycling) were driven by lockdown regulations, I would expect to see a reversal in the figures for 2021. In a years time the insurance company will then dredge through the collision stats to find the largest percentage change and will produce a press release which will then dutifully appear as a BBC headline:
'Cycle deaths soar on urban roads'