100% Car ownership globally=gridlock?

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james01
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100% Car ownership globally=gridlock?

Postby james01 » 18 Mar 2013, 9:50am

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21805068

I don't think the graphics and commentary make any mention of cycling and walking as sensible solutions to the urban gridlock issue.

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[XAP]Bob
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Re: 100% Car ownership globally=gridlock?

Postby [XAP]Bob » 18 Mar 2013, 9:55am

Despite trying to make cars thinner and shorter they'll never beat the unicycle, or shanks pony.

In a megacity I imagine that cars could easily be redundant for all but the disabled.
A shortcut has to be a challenge, otherwise it would just be the way. No situation is so dire that panic cannot make it worse.
There are two kinds of people in this world: those can extrapolate from incomplete data.

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meic
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Re: 100% Car ownership globally=gridlock?

Postby meic » 18 Mar 2013, 10:02am

It isnt gridlock that I worry about. At the moment most of the cars are centred around rich countries, if the poor countries achieve a similar traffic density (short of gridlock) we will start to have the more serious problems of fuel shortage and pollution to worry about before gridlock.

Just as gridlock will be a limiting factor on car use, affordability will probably kick in as a factor before that is reached especially as biodiesel is competing with our food resources.
Yma o Hyd

Ayesha
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Re: 100% Car ownership globally=gridlock?

Postby Ayesha » 18 Mar 2013, 11:18am

At current rates of oil consumption increase ( approx. 1.5% per year ), the entire global capacity of oil will dry up in thirty five years.
Not increasing on today’s usage will stretch that out to 39 years.
Oil is necessary for more than just motorcars, trucks, buses, trains etc; it keeps industry and manufacturing going.

The motor industry’s long term future plans are to manufacture plug-in all electric vehicles.
Whatever oil reserves are remaining in 2025, will be channelled to electricity generation with carbon-capture. There will be no tolerance for carbon emitting private surface transport vehicles. Other vehicles will be fitted with carbon-capture.

In about ten years, if you are super-wealthy enough to afford the battery for an electric plug-in car, you’ll be OK. Ordinary folks will need to resort to either public or self propelled transport.

Private cars, buses and commercial vehicles will be so technologically advanced, they will detect other road users, automatically attempt to avoid them and deploy exterior air bags if they get too close to the other road user. The cost of replacing the airbags and tear-away panels will be a large enough deterrent to getting close to a slower moving vehicle.
Also, if a car is seen with exterior airbags deployed, everyone will know that was an ‘inconsiderate’ driver.

A ‘close pass’ past a cyclist will be visually signalled until the car’s owner gets the bags and panels replaced !!

No need to worry.

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661-Pete
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Re: 100% Car ownership globally=gridlock?

Postby 661-Pete » 18 Mar 2013, 12:26pm

I tried googling "world's most congested cities" and, not surprisingly, according to this survey, a fair number of cities outside of Europe and the USA figure in the list. Top of the bill is, apparently, Sao Paulo, and also featured are Bangkok, Johannesburg, New Delhi, Mexico City, and Beijing.

Every continent is represented. It seems, it already is a worldwide problem. Although all those countries were once regarded as 'poor' they have of course moved well up the scale...
Suppose that this room is a lift. The support breaks and down we go with ever-increasing velocity.
Let us pass the time by performing physical experiments...
--- Arthur Eddington (creator of the Eddington Number).

Ayesha
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Re: 100% Car ownership globally=gridlock?

Postby Ayesha » 18 Mar 2013, 1:16pm

661-Pete wrote:I tried googling "world's most congested cities" and, not surprisingly, according to this survey, a fair number of cities outside of Europe and the USA figure in the list. Top of the bill is, apparently, Sao Paulo, and also featured are Bangkok, Johannesburg, New Delhi, Mexico City, and Beijing.

Every continent is represented. It seems, it already is a worldwide problem. Although all those countries were once regarded as 'poor' they have of course moved well up the scale...


Strange how Volkswagen have a factory near these locations.

Geriatrix
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Re: 100% Car ownership globally=gridlock?

Postby Geriatrix » 18 Mar 2013, 2:46pm

661-Pete wrote:I tried googling "world's most congested cities" and, not surprisingly, according to this survey, a fair number of cities outside of Europe and the USA figure in the list. Top of the bill is, apparently, Sao Paulo, and also featured are Bangkok, Johannesburg, New Delhi, Mexico City, and Beijing.

Every continent is represented. It seems, it already is a worldwide problem. Although all those countries were once regarded as 'poor' they have of course moved well up the scale...

Many of these developing cities have the additional problem of having no established rail/tube public transport network to take the load off the road.

Having first hand experience of Johannesburg I know that there is an entrenched problem that neither citizens nor government see a bicycle as a feasible form of utility transport. Which is sad because low rainfall and wide roads makes it an ideal candidate to be a cycling heaven.
For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for nature cannot be fooled - Richard Feynman

kwackers
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Re: 100% Car ownership globally=gridlock?

Postby kwackers » 18 Mar 2013, 2:51pm

Geriatrix wrote:Many of these developing cities have the additional problem of having no established rail/tube public transport network to take the load off the road.

Having first hand experience of Johannesburg I know that there is an entrenched problem that neither citizens nor government see a bicycle as a feasible form of utility transport. Which is sad because low rainfall and wide roads makes it an ideal candidate to be a cycling heaven.

I think governments reflect their peoples views and cars are still seen as aspirational.

Not many citizens aspire to owning bikes and even less in developing countries.
(Even in this country it's a 'special' sort of person who chooses a bicycle as a means of transport)

pliptrot
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Re: 100% Car ownership globally=gridlock?

Postby pliptrot » 18 Mar 2013, 2:52pm

Ayesha wrote:At current rates of oil consumption increase ( approx. 1.5% per year ), the entire global capacity of oil will dry up in thirty five years.

Sadly not true. And future electricity generation will be heavily dependent on gas supplies, which will also last far, far longer than most people imagine.

Geriatrix
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Re: 100% Car ownership globally=gridlock?

Postby Geriatrix » 18 Mar 2013, 3:11pm

kwackers wrote:I think governments reflect their peoples views and cars are still seen as aspirational.

Not many citizens aspire to owning bikes and even less in developing countries.
(Even in this country it's a 'special' sort of person who chooses a bicycle as a means of transport)

Unfortunately that's true. Using what little public transport is available is socially viewed as something you do if you can't afford a car. It's also dangerous because it competes with the minibus taxi's for customers and their method of maintaining customer loyalty is to kill people using the competition (I'm not kidding).

Bicycles are socially viewed a little differently because there are a few road warriors that cycle to work for fitness, and it is viewed as a similar activity to running. It's chief drawback is safety. SA roads are genuinely aggressive and dangerous with every second driver being a Clarkson wannabe.
For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for nature cannot be fooled - Richard Feynman

Geriatrix
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Re: 100% Car ownership globally=gridlock?

Postby Geriatrix » 18 Mar 2013, 3:16pm

pliptrot wrote:Sadly not true. And future electricity generation will be heavily dependent on gas supplies, which will also last far, far longer than most people imagine.

The question is will the environment outlast the fossil fuel? The evidence doesn't look good.
For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for nature cannot be fooled - Richard Feynman

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661-Pete
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Re: 100% Car ownership globally=gridlock?

Postby 661-Pete » 18 Mar 2013, 3:23pm

I've never been to South Africa, but I've heard that crime - and fear of crime - are the great deterrent factors to cycling, and public transport use. Middle-class people feel safer in their cars, with the doors locked.

But the saddest state of affairs is what's happening in China. There, as I recall Richard Ballantyne writing in the 1970s, he describes it as "a nation on bicycle wheels". Alas, not so any more! 40 years have wreaked their havoc! Car ownership is the new must-have: anyone still cycling is perceived as a 'loser', and in Oriental culture 'loss of face' is the real no-no. Communist ideals my ****!
Suppose that this room is a lift. The support breaks and down we go with ever-increasing velocity.
Let us pass the time by performing physical experiments...
--- Arthur Eddington (creator of the Eddington Number).

kwackers
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Re: 100% Car ownership globally=gridlock?

Postby kwackers » 18 Mar 2013, 3:33pm

Geriatrix wrote:because there are a few road warriors that cycle to work for fitness, and it is viewed as a similar activity to running.

The 'road warrior' aspect puts people off I think, but don't underestimate the fitness aspect, imo it's pretty much the only thing that bicycles can offer that people want.

Cost for example is mainly irrelevant, most folk can afford to keep a car on the road and use it for even small journeys.
Ditto time, the reality is for most folk they'll put up with increased journey time if they can sit in warmth and comfort whilst listening to the radio.
Green, most folk will find some argument to convince themselves it's irrelevant (for them at least).

It's certainly a case that locally to me I see a *lot* more cyclists and runners than I did 5 years ago. Hopefully this is something that will rub off on folk and change the general perception.
We need *more* folk in ordinary clothing using bikes for everyday stuff.

Geriatrix
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Re: 100% Car ownership globally=gridlock?

Postby Geriatrix » 18 Mar 2013, 3:33pm

661-Pete wrote:Car ownership is the new must-have: anyone still cycling is perceived as a 'loser', and in Oriental culture 'loss of face' is the real no-no. Communist ideals my ****!

I think that in a nutshell describes most developing countries. It's not exactly an alien attitude in the UK either.
For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for nature cannot be fooled - Richard Feynman

reohn2
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Re: 100% Car ownership globally=gridlock?

Postby reohn2 » 18 Mar 2013, 7:12pm

Kwackers
Spot on!
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