20% KSI reduction from Operation Close Pass

[squeaker]

I've no idea of the statistical significance of the West Midlands results quoted by the ETA, but it does sound encouraging, if for no other reason than real on-the-street policing happening A cost / benefit analysis would be useful.

Might be something to beat your local police commissioner over the head with?

[thirdcrank]

Almost 200 offenders have been pulled over during close-pass operations. In 13 cases the standard of driving was so poor that drivers were prosecuted. Another 350 others were fined and received penalty points after officers reviewed helmet footage provided by cyclists.
(My emphasis)

IMO that 350 figure is remarkable, especially if it refers only to the WMP over a year. I read a lot more about people being fobbed off than making a report which led to a prosecution. If this bit has been receiving local publicity, knowing that just about any rider might have a camera AND they would be taken seriously must have had a big effect.

I'm a bit disappointed we never seem to hear anything from local riders about this. It might only be anecdotal but it would interest me.

====================================================================
PS It occurred to me to look for something from the horse's mouth and here's the blog which has been linked before on the mat thread
https://trafficwmp.wordpress.com/catego ... r-cycling/

I found the account of the use of third party camera footage interesting.

[horizon]

knowing that just about any rider might have a camera AND they would be taken seriously must have had a big effect.

Just like hidden speed cameras in fact. You don't need them everywhere, it's the not knowing that counts. I'm now feeling guilty I don't have a camera on the bike.

[mercalia]

I hope it comes to london. The picture of the "close pass" in the article is a "if only it was that bad" more often worse than that. Some of the trouble is those large US type cars that have no -place on our roads?

[Richard D]

I'm calling "[rude word removed]" on this stat.

Firstly because I cycle in the West Mids, and I've detected NO reduction in the number of close passes I endure at all. Instead, I have noted an INCREASE in the number of drivers saying "get out of my way, why are you in the middle of the road, you're only a bike {FFE - family-friendly edit }!"

And secondly because they haven't been collecting stats on the causes of KSIs sufficiently accurately to say whether or not a close pass was a causative or contributing factor.

[The utility cyclist]

So only get a prosecution if you have clearly visible video evidence to identify driver/vehicle and the offence is absolutely the worst and most of those will be due to it being a police officer. meanwhile back in the real world actually being killed gets the assailant let off completely or a slap on the wrist IF the police even bother to take the case to the CPS (remember Michael Mason! )

Close passes are happening by the hundreds of thousands every single day up and down dale, people on bikes are being seriously injured by motorists at least five times every single day plus minor injuries numbering 40 a day, that's even if you only take 50% of the number being at fault motorists which we know is well below the real figure.
Statistically it is insignificant, no numbers are quoted and for when so there is no ability to compare, there are no figures for cycling uptake over the same period. Seeing as some areas have seen downward trends in cycling and others big increases (so that there has only being a small 10% increase in cycling over the whole country with respect to miles covered not actual people cycling) there is no way to know if this is an actual downward trend in KSIs. And with all due respect the close pass initiative rolled out, it's half assed (it's not law), the distances are too small, it's more like 1.1metre not 1.5 because the distance is measured from the centre of the wheel which is ludicrous, there's also the stupid 75cm measure from the curb which should never have being included by CUK, that is why I did not support it. Without policing it is utterly meaningless and so far I've had zero help from police even when struck/injured with not a single prosecution, they even went so far as to not investigate video footage from a bus that tried to mow me down. it has not made any difference whatsoever in most people's personal experience.

We know that injuries of people on bikes are still going up by more than increases in cycling and since the 2005-09 average it's gone up by a shocking amount, particularly when you view those stats compared to pedestrians.

And if you think that motorists will change their stance/attitude to driving/vulnerable road users because they might think there's a camera being worn, sorry but you're wrong. just like speed cameras it makes sod all difference where/when it matters.

A small handful of prosecutions over a year means nothing, 16 prosecutions just tells you all you need to know at how weak the law/justice system is, we know full well that a close pass is not 'careless', it risks the life of a human being, by definition it can only ever be dangerous by the very nature of what we know are the outcomes all too often and the potential harm caused. At the very least even if no contact it is a common assault just as if I were to swing a sledgehammer near a constables face whilst walking down the street toward or from behind them.

Let's see some actual complete facts not just one outlier figure that says absolutely nothing, particularly when the 'operation' will be stopped and normal service will resume.
When police start to take notice/act upon non video footage incidents then we might say that things could change, frankly I won't hold my breath. But I'm sure plod will happily spend time telling people on bikes to wear high visibility garments/helmets, year in year out because that clearly is what will keep people from being killed/hurt

[thirdcrank]

Re the stats such as the KSI, I don't think I've ever hidden my scepticism and the last time I looked the stats19 data weren't recognised as adequate by the Office for National Statistics.

I'm also cautious about people marking their own homework, but I do get the impression that the small group of people apparently committed to this in WMP are making a big effort. Re the prosecutions using third party video footage, let's remember that it's not so long ago we had the then national police lead on traffic policing telling the Parliamentary cycling charade it was a non-starter and from fob-offs reported on here, that's been used as the excuse all over the country. If I've understood it correctly, 350 prosecutions over two years based on third part footage is a very high figure bearing in mind the need to check the footage, identify and interview the driver and then prepare a file of evidence which passes both CPS tests. I wasn't born yesterday, but if this is correct, they've reached a point where processing and using third party footage is routine, not some five minute wonder.

I welcome posts from locals like Richard D to keep things in perspective.

This all ties into the wider picture with the mats. Let's say that the enthusiasm of these West Midlands officer has not been infectious at the national level.

[Psamathe]

Without more information the 20% could be "noise" or truly significant e.g. if KSI's were 10 (previous year) and are now 8 (this year) then what about preceding years (was the 10 last year a bad blip?), was this year an unrelated good "blip" e.g. long term roadworks needing strict speed reduction at an accident black spot. But if for the last 10 years KSIs had been 1000 and suddenly now down to 800 then might be more significant.

And I get the feeling that have fallen for the classic error in that they have assumed a correlation proves a causal relationship - which it does not. And if it is the Police who are associating the questionable 20% with "Operation Close Pass" then they have to provide evidence of that causal relationship which the KSI reduction (if valid) does not. And failing to demonstrate that causal relationship makes one question whoever is making these assertions and make one suspect it is more the creation of a PR department than a valid statistic.

Ian

[Wanlock Dod]

I've seen the claim made quite a few times, but never by anybody that was prepared to try to justify it with any data. The initiative ought to have been going on for long enough now that there would be some data, but I'm not sure that would have been the case the first time I heard the claim made.

[Steady rider]

If anyone has the details handy of the best value for money camera to buy and running costs? Handlebar fitted type. That could be useful to know.

[thirdcrank]

See also this thread
viewtopic.php?p=1248982#p1248982