reohn2 wrote:In 24 hours:- A truck every 4minutes at Dover = 360 Every 80 minutes = 18 Backlog = 342 per day
Not quite. It currently takes 4 minutes to do a customs check on a truck for intra EU transit. Out of the EU on the 29th with no formal agreement in place it will take 80 minutes per truck. 10,000 trucks a day leaving British ports. I've already done the math above. The EU will impose the strictest 'Third Country' checks, which in terms of scrutiny I would rate as 'comprehensive'. Hence the time required.
And that's assuming the French and the Dutch authorities don't try and aggravate things the other side (which in all likelihood they will). And it's also not taking into the account the fact the Gilets Jaunes movement might not take advantage of the situation at French ports. A blockade for example, given the chaos existing in Britain would be very easy to put in place.
Unspeakable chaos doesn't even touch the sides.
You initially said Dover Is there really 10,000 trucks a day leaving UK ports?
Canuk wrote: Not quite. It currently takes 4 minutes to do a customs check on a truck for intra EU transit. Out of the EU on the 29th with no formal agreement in place it will take 80 minutes per truck. 10,000 trucks a day leaving British ports. I've already done the math above. The EU will impose the strictest 'Third Country' checks, which in terms of scrutiny I would rate as 'comprehensive'. Hence the time required.
And that's assuming the French and the Dutch authorities don't try and aggravate things the other side (which in all likelihood they will). And it's also not taking into the account the fact the Gilets Jaunes movement might not take advantage of the situation at French ports. A blockade for example, given the chaos existing in Britain would be very easy to put in place.
Unspeakable chaos doesn't even touch the sides.
You initially said Dover Is there really 10,000 trucks a day leaving UK ports?
Yes. There is.
Got a link?
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"All we are not stares back at what we are"
W H Auden
Canuk wrote:with no formal agreement in place it will take 80 minutes per truck. 1
Port of Dover are saying it'll take 20 minutes, only a quarter of the chaos you predict.
Port of Dover are going to try and paint it in the best colours possible.
Why would they do that? Wouldn't it be in their best interests to overplay it, I'm assuming resources and hence profits will follow workload. But it wasn't an estimate, it was in answer to the question posed by a parliamentary committee about how long it takes to process a non EU lorry arriving in Dover. Anyway, why settle for 80 minutes, there's other stories going around that it'll take 8 days.
"Port Of Dover 2017 Coaches 79,368 - not a huge number but considerable potential for delays if full border controls imposed. Road Haulage Vehicles 2,180,611" Probably not spread evenly across 7 days per week, so between 7 - 10,000 per day.
djnotts wrote:"Port Of Dover 2017 Coaches 79,368 - not a huge number but considerable potential for delays if full border controls imposed. Road Haulage Vehicles 2,180,611" Probably not spread evenly across 7 days per week, so between 7 - 10,000 per day.
And how many HGVs in today's trials......
79. I see trouble ahead...
Only 80 days left till E-Day, and not a dish washed nor a trade agreement ratified.
Last edited by Canuk on 7 Jan 2019, 10:00pm, edited 1 time in total.
Canuk wrote:Only 80 days left till E-Day, and not a dish washed nor a trade agreement ratified.
To be fair, there never was going to be a trade deal, ratified or otherwise, at this stage.
The current deal on the table is just the terms of our (ordered) legal departure from the EU plus breathing space for the proper negotiations to actually begin & a framework for negotiating the actual deal (trade, etc.) some way down the line.
Former member of the Cult of the Polystyrene Head Carbuncle.
PH wrote:Port of Dover are saying it'll take 20 minutes, only a quarter of the chaos you predict.
Port of Dover are going to try and paint it in the best colours possible.
Why would they do that? Wouldn't it be in their best interests to overplay it, I'm assuming resources and hence profits will follow workload.
I don't see any basis for that assumption. I'd expect resources would go to opening/reopening/enlarging other ports if it looked like Dover couldn't cope. The govt has recently signed contingency contracts for several other ports and more could follow.
Anyway, it's probably somewhere between 20 minutes and 8 days, while the Hauts de France region has been predicting a delay of just 2 minutes will cause a backlog of thousands of lorries at Calais that they need to prepare for: https://www.thelocal.fr/20181109/hauts- ... s-to-lille
MJR, mostly pedalling 3-speed roadsters. KL+West Norfolk BUG incl social easy rides http://www.klwnbug.co.uk All the above is CC-By-SA and no other implied copyright license to Cycle magazine.
Does anyone believe May will 'do a Churchill', ie put the country first, before self and party politics to save Britain rolling over the cliff edge on the 29th?
If she doesn't (and I have my doubts) the phrase 'uncharted territory' will sound like a nirvana compared to what comes next. The weeks are fast eating up (only 11 left to go), and this perpetual Groundhog day will soon be at and end, one way or t'other.
Canuk wrote:Does anyone believe May will 'do a Churchill', ie put the country first, before self and party politics to save Britain rolling over the cliff edge on the 29th?
If she doesn't (and I have my doubts) the phrase 'uncharted territory' will sound like a nirvana compared to what comes next. The weeks are fast eating up (only 11 left to go), and this perpetual Groundhog day will soon be at and end, one way or t'other.
I've seen nothing to suggest she would. One track mind, 'My deal or no deal'. I just wish we had a credible opposition in the UK. Just heard David Davis on radio 4. Talking utter twaddle, basically the EU is going to cave in! How he was given the job to negotiate with the EU I just cant imagine
Canuk wrote:Does anyone believe May will 'do a Churchill', ie put the country first, before self and party politics to save Britain rolling over the cliff edge on the 29th?
If she doesn't (and I have my doubts) the phrase 'uncharted territory' will sound like a nirvana compared to what comes next. The weeks are fast eating up (only 11 left to go), and this perpetual Groundhog day will soon be at and end, one way or t'other.
Depends on what you mean by "the country". She is stuck in the argument that "the country" refers to a 17m slice of the electorate that voted a certain way in 2016, regardless of what their opinion is in 2019 - and she deems this to be the only sector of "the country" that needs to be "put first".
And Churchill is way over-hyped IMO. No way would he have "won" WW2 single-handed - he needed the Russians and the Americans to bring that about. It's often alleged that he had a serious drink problem - though that's generally hushed up. And wasn't it he who tried to call a referendum in 1945 - to perpetuate his National Government and keep Attlee out (unsuccessfully)?
Suppose that this room is a lift. The support breaks and down we go with ever-increasing velocity. Let us pass the time by performing physical experiments... --- Arthur Eddington (creator of the Eddington Number).
Canuk wrote:Does anyone believe May will 'do a Churchill', ie put the country first, before self and party politics to save Britain rolling over the cliff edge on the 29th?
If she doesn't (and I have my doubts) the phrase 'uncharted territory' will sound like a nirvana compared to what comes next. The weeks are fast eating up (only 11 left to go), and this perpetual Groundhog day will soon be at and end, one way or t'other.
I've seen nothing to suggest she would. One track mind, 'My deal or no deal'. I just wish we had a credible opposition in the UK. Just heard David Davis on radio 4. Talking utter twaddle, basically the EU is going to cave in! How he was given the job to negotiate with the EU I just cant imagine
Unfortunately that is where we are
EU has stated no further negotiation Therefore there is only one deal The other option is no deal
Sensible options like delay are subject to the rabid attentions of the Pro-Brexit extreme who are more and more intent on closing down any democratic debate with increasing aggression
Oldjohnw wrote:Bottom line: Brexit and no dividing border in Ireland are mutually exclusive. You can't be both in and out simultaneously, unless Ireland is United.
+1
Everything that has happened since the referendum has been an attempt to avoid this hardest of questions.
I hope May has the balls to stop the wagons going over the cliff edge AND put country before party. It would be a tragedy to watch her go down with the ship.
It seems clear that the EU are as much influenced by the unprospect of a no deal situation as Parliament are. I don't think there's any grand game of chess or brinkmanship going on here. It's too late for that. They've clearly stated that this is the deal, the only deal and there won't be any unreasonable renegotiation. So, 'take it or leave it', though we know you absolutely cannot afford to leave it, so just be a good doggy and roll over and take it.
That's where it's at. 11 weeks to go. Which will zip by very quick indeed. It seems some still believe she has the word 'DUTY' stitched into her trouser suits. Maybe she will surprise us all yet. The words 'uncharted territory' might not be so ominous after all.
Oldjohnw wrote:Bottom line: Brexit and no dividing border in Ireland are mutually exclusive. You can't be both in and out simultaneously, unless Ireland is United.
+1
Everything that has happened since the referendum has been an attempt to avoid this hardest of questions.
It seems to be getting more and more "Schrödinger" at every turn. You know - we are simultaneously both "in" and "out" of the EU, there is simultaneously both a "hard" and a "soft" Irish border ... and it can't be resolved until we open the box....
...and I give you one guess who's playing the role of the poor old moggie, in all this!
Suppose that this room is a lift. The support breaks and down we go with ever-increasing velocity. Let us pass the time by performing physical experiments... --- Arthur Eddington (creator of the Eddington Number).
