** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

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[XAP]Bob
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby [XAP]Bob » 19 May 2019, 7:49am

The opinion poll in 2016 had two options ‘leave’ or ‘stay’

The stay option was well defined.
The leave option was whatever anyone said it was.
Notably no one was talking about WTO before the poll was taken, they were all saying how we’d retain access to the free market, travel around the eu, have unicorns in all our gardens and start defecating rainbows.

The largest vote was clearly for remaining in the EU...
The split of ‘leave’ options (many or most of which were and are complete fantasy) needs exposing to demonstrate this.
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Lance Dopestrong
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby Lance Dopestrong » 19 May 2019, 8:14am

You generalise so much there that you venture into inaccuracy - Boris was one of the loudest mouths, and he was pretty hot for WTO and giving the EU the middle finger. Farage was the same. I got fed up with switching on the tv news and hearing that message. The biggest characters with the most powerful loudhailers were suggesting nothing of the sort you describe.

As aforementioned, every leaver I've asked has been unequivocal - out, to them, very much means out. I've yet to find a leaver who wants to remain in some customs or commercial arrangement with the EU, as the EU's condition for offering one would be to exclude the UK from entering into such arrangements with countries outside of the EU. There are plenty of leavers on this thread, and none seam to have suggested that as a desirable option either.

Before speaking on the behalf of others you should at least ask them what they think. You've made an assumption, and the making of assumptions is what lost you the vote in the first place.
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mr bajokoses
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby mr bajokoses » 19 May 2019, 9:23am

Those loud leave voices seem strangely quiet when it comes to finding a solution for the Ireland dilemma, don't you think? It's almost as if they have no idea what to do about it. Or maybe they just don't care.

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Mick F
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby Mick F » 19 May 2019, 9:36am

I'm sort of of a slightly different opinion about the Ireland issue.
It's not a UK problem after we leave, it's an EU problem.
It's their external border.

Moot point, I agree, but it's not just a UK issue but a joint one and I would like to think they it would be the EU's job to sort it like they've sorted all their other external borders.
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thirdcrank
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby thirdcrank » 19 May 2019, 9:49am

It is a joint problem, but another problem has been the view is some quarters that the remaining 27 EU countries will be so desperate to please the UK that they will slide on their bellies to accommodate whatever we want, with the fallback position being that if they don't capitulate it just illustrates what a nasty - garlic-eating - bunch they are.

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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby mercalia » 19 May 2019, 9:59am

thirdcrank wrote:It is a joint problem, but another problem has been the view is some quarters that the remaining 27 EU countries will be so desperate to please the UK that they will slide on their bellies to accommodate whatever we want, with the fallback position being that if they don't capitulate it just illustrates what a nasty - garlic-eating - bunch they are.


thats an erroneous caricature of things. Rather the Irish border is a problem for the EU as they want/need/must protect their single market and stop a flow of contraband flowing into the EU. The UK on the other hand only have to keep to the terms of the GFA that is easier to do as it has been described as "constructive ambiguity" I believe. Mays GROSS error was to swallow hook line and sinker the EUs soln to the GFA that is only in the interests of the EU; that is why we are now where we are with the DUP in revolt: Brexit might have happened already otherwise
Last edited by mercalia on 19 May 2019, 10:29am, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby reohn2 » 19 May 2019, 10:16am

thirdcrank wrote:It is a joint problem, but another problem has been the view is some quarters that the remaining 27 EU countries will be so desperate to please the UK that they will slide on their bellies to accommodate whatever we want, with the fallback position being that if they don't capitulate it just illustrates what a nasty - garlic-eating - bunch they are.

Nail,head,on
The arrogance of the leave campaign and some of it's supporters is beyond belief at times.
To think the UK can just walk away from the EU,without such as a glance over it's shoulder is infantile and ignorant in the extreme yet some are still professing such beliefs.
Incredible!
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby mjr » 19 May 2019, 10:40am

Lance Dopestrong wrote:You generalise so much there that you venture into inaccuracy - Boris was one of the loudest mouths, and he was pretty hot for WTO and giving the EU the middle finger. Farage was the same. I got fed up with switching on the tv news and hearing that message. The biggest characters with the most powerful loudhailers were suggesting nothing of the sort you describe.


Farage's Leave.EU said before the referendum: "No one is proposing that we would ever leave this free trade area if we were to leave the EU." Farage also gave interviews advocating a Norway deal. He switched to a no deal months after the vote, after spending time with Trump.

Johnson wrote long articles advocating a deal with the UK remaining in the single market like Norway or Switzerland, like just after the referendum:
Boris wrote:British people will still be able to go and work in the EU; to live; to travel; to study; to buy homes and to settle down. As the German equivalent of the CBI – the BDI – has very sensibly reminded us, there will continue to be free trade, and access to the single market.

That’s freedom of movement


Saying that either of these was in favour of crashing out before the result is shady retcon.

It's quite possible that you would have got a hard Brexit crash out and burn message from the TV. Sky, BBC and so on were pushing hard for a Leave vote, maybe to keep them in political crisis news for a generation...
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Psamathe
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby Psamathe » 19 May 2019, 11:08am

Mick F wrote:I'm sort of of a slightly different opinion about the Ireland issue.
It's not a UK problem after we leave, it's an EU problem.
It's their external border.

Moot point, I agree, but it's not just a UK issue but a joint one and I would like to think they it would be the EU's job to sort it like they've sorted all their other external borders.

Unfortunately it is not an EU issue as even under WTO rules we would require a border with checks.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-nireland-border/wto-rules-clear-on-border-checks-in-no-deal-brexit-uk-northern-ireland-minister-idUKKCN1NO18I wrote:WTO rules clear on border checks in no deal Brexit: UK Northern Ireland minister

World Trade Organization (WTO) rules are clear that checks would be required between EU-member Ireland and the British province of Northern Ireland if Britain crashed out of the bloc without an exit deal, the minister for the region said on Monday.

“The fact is that the WTO is very clear that if there are two different customs territories, checks have to be able to be carried out on a contemporaneous basis on consignments passing between the two territories,” Karen Bradley told reporters.


Or a rather mode detailed explanation
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-46892372 wrote:WTO terms mean tariffs on some goods, particularly food and agriculture, and much higher barriers to trade compared to the EU single market.
The most important WTO principle is that you do not discriminate,  so if the UK government refused to check goods crossing the Irish border, then it also could not check goods arriving into UK ports from China, Brazil or anywhere else.

Ian

mercalia
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby mercalia » 19 May 2019, 11:24am

Psamathe wrote:
Mick F wrote:I'm sort of of a slightly different opinion about the Ireland issue.
It's not a UK problem after we leave, it's an EU problem.
It's their external border.

Moot point, I agree, but it's not just a UK issue but a joint one and I would like to think they it would be the EU's job to sort it like they've sorted all their other external borders.

Unfortunately it is not an EU issue as even under WTO rules we would require a border with checks.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-nireland-border/wto-rules-clear-on-border-checks-in-no-deal-brexit-uk-northern-ireland-minister-idUKKCN1NO18I wrote:WTO rules clear on border checks in no deal Brexit: UK Northern Ireland minister

World Trade Organization (WTO) rules are clear that checks would be required between EU-member Ireland and the British province of Northern Ireland if Britain crashed out of the bloc without an exit deal, the minister for the region said on Monday.

“The fact is that the WTO is very clear that if there are two different customs territories, checks have to be able to be carried out on a contemporaneous basis on consignments passing between the two territories,” Karen Bradley told reporters.


Or a rather mode detailed explanation
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-46892372 wrote:WTO terms mean tariffs on some goods, particularly food and agriculture, and much higher barriers to trade compared to the EU single market.
The most important WTO principle is that you do not discriminate,  so if the UK government refused to check goods crossing the Irish border, then it also could not check goods arriving into UK ports from China, Brazil or anywhere else.

Ian



just wondering how do we check goods coming from eg China? Literally when they come into the country? where? Do we have a choice where they are examinined, does it have to be at the first foot in UK territory ? if not then we could have borderless Northern Ireland but do the customs checking at a suitable place of our choice? What does WTO say in this matter, if anything

belgiangoth
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby belgiangoth » 19 May 2019, 12:09pm

Mick F wrote:I'm sort of of a slightly different opinion about the Ireland issue.
It's not a UK problem after we leave, it's an EU problem.
It's their external border.

Moot point, I agree, but it's not just a UK issue but a joint one and I would like to think they it would be the EU's job to sort it like they've sorted all their other external borders.

One of the big pro Brexit arguments is controlling immigration. The eu will be okay with an open border in Ireland which will allow unchecked immigration. It won’t be used for mass untariffed trade, which is the eu’s issue.
In my opinion it is very much a U.K. problem
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby Bonefishblues » 19 May 2019, 12:15pm

belgiangoth wrote:
Mick F wrote:I'm sort of of a slightly different opinion about the Ireland issue.
It's not a UK problem after we leave, it's an EU problem.
It's their external border.

Moot point, I agree, but it's not just a UK issue but a joint one and I would like to think they it would be the EU's job to sort it like they've sorted all their other external borders.

One of the big pro Brexit arguments is controlling immigration. The eu will be okay with an open border in Ireland which will allow unchecked immigration. It won’t be used for mass untariffed trade, which is the eu’s issue.
In my opinion it is very much a U.K. problem

In short, it's a problem entirely of our own making, which, as I recall, was exactly the line which was taken by GvH and his chums in the fly on the wall I watched a couple of weeks ago.

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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby pete75 » 19 May 2019, 12:22pm

[XAP]Bob wrote:The opinion poll in 2016 had two options ‘leave’ or ‘stay’

The stay option was well defined.
The leave option was whatever anyone said it was.
Notably no one was talking about WTO before the poll was taken, they were all saying how we’d retain access to the free market, travel around the eu, have unicorns in all our gardens and start defecating rainbows.

The largest vote was clearly for remaining in the EU...
The split of ‘leave’ options (many or most of which were and are complete fantasy) needs exposing to demonstrate this.


Yes and they said they'd have a pot of gold at the end but instead there was a pile of excrement.

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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby mjr » 19 May 2019, 12:59pm

mercalia wrote: Mays GROSS error was to swallow hook line and sinker the EUs soln to the GFA that is only in the interests of the EU;

Meanwhile, in reality, the current backstop was a UK govt proposal.
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby PH » 19 May 2019, 1:19pm

mercalia wrote:just wondering how do we check goods coming from eg China? Literally when they come into the country? where? Do we have a choice where they are examinined, does it have to be at the first foot in UK territory ? if not then we could have borderless Northern Ireland but do the customs checking at a suitable place of our choice? What does WTO say in this matter, if anything

Most customs documentation is done miles away from any border. I've opened containers in Derby that were sealed in China, they've still crossed the border and the UK authorities have checked the paperwork at that point and retain the right to open and inspect.