Corona virus - impact on European tours in next 3 months?

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Psamathe
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Re: Corona virus - impact on European tours in next 3 months?

Postby Psamathe » 16 Mar 2020, 11:37am

simonhill wrote:As someone who is in the thick of it at the moment, I would say that it is almost impossible to predict.

Six weeks ago when I left the UK for Vietnam, I thought I was going into the lions den. Now Vn has a very low number of cases and the UK is part of the world's hotspot.

Visas for people travelling to Vn from UK and European countries have been suspended. Anyone entering from infected area (Europe, UK, etc) has mandatory 14 days quarantine. The FCO have just put on a (no) travel advisory because of the risk of being put in quarantine at any time - that must be a first.

Borders all over the region are having their entry requirements changed, some on a daily basis. Ones that you used to freely pass over now need extra documentation.

On a personal level, I have been refused a hotel on a few occasions because I'm British. ......

I've heard back from contact I made when visiting earlier this year about hotels/hostels refusing to take people from Europe. Also heard of some claiming to be full when they are not, etc.

Have a good trip.

Ian

Marcus Aurelius
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Re: Corona virus - impact on European tours in next 3 months?

Postby Marcus Aurelius » 16 Mar 2020, 11:40am

Although I’ve heard nothing official from the organisers, I have my doubts that we’ll be able to even get to Bulle, let alone back through France, on my planned tour. It’s not until June, but the chances that everything will be back to normal by then are slim to nothing.

Psamathe
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Re: Corona virus - impact on European tours in next 3 months?

Postby Psamathe » 16 Mar 2020, 11:45am

ANTONISH wrote:I notice in a couple of posts reference to UK numbers with coronavirus.
It appears that only those reporting symptoms are being tested.
That leaves an unknown number with possibly mild or negligible symptoms and those who may be very ill but do not wish to identify themselves ( e.g illegal immigrants.)
I don't know about other countries but unless we have a standard protocol there isn't a reasonable comparison between the UK and others.

The new testing regime in the UK concerns me as how can you make sensible policy when you don't know what the extent of the problem is. If you are only testing those who attend hospital, some will turn-up with mild sniffles whilst others seriously ill will be staying alone at home (not wanting "to be a burden").

If the UK is aiming for hive immunity (as the policy makers have said they are aiming for) - how will you know the extent of the herd immunity if you have no idea if 5% of the population have been infected and recovered or if 90% of the population have been infected and recovered.

If you ban public gatherings when 90% of the population are already infected it's a bit pointless but if you fail to bad public gatherings when 10% of the population are infected ... Good decisions need good information.

Ian

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Morzedec
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Re: Corona virus - impact on European tours in next 3 months?

Postby Morzedec » 16 Mar 2020, 12:19pm

Psamathe, you sound like a businessman to me: do your research, cost the outcome, decide on a strategy, test the market, and only THEN make decisions.

Problem is that our knee-jerk politicians and civil servants have never run ANYthing that they had to finance themselves; always the great leveller, when it's your own cash at stake.

Stop scaremongering, and tell the Press to do the same: with a current death rate of only 0.3% of those infected the problem is far less serious than normal flu, and most of those who have sadly died would have died ANYWAY because of outstanding problems.

As for stockpiling loo rolls, why bother? - I often use moss when I'm wild camping (although a line of residents doing the same, in their front gardens, may attract rather more attention. It's all those beans, you know).

Happy days,

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Re: Corona virus - impact on European tours in next 3 months?

Postby mjr » 16 Mar 2020, 1:22pm

Morzedec wrote:As for stockpiling loo rolls, why bother? - I often use moss when I'm wild camping (although a line of residents doing the same, in their front gardens, may attract rather more attention. It's all those beans, you know).

Far too much moss in our lawns. Maybe it'll finally become an asset!

All but one of the transport and hotel bookings for our summer bike tour have announced they'll allow free postponement, with most free cancellation. The one which hasn't is a hostel in France, but that's only €15 per person IIRC.
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Re: Corona virus - impact on European tours in next 3 months?

Postby JakobW » 16 Mar 2020, 1:54pm

Morzedec wrote:Stop scaremongering, and tell the Press to do the same: with a current death rate of only 0.3% of those infected the problem is far less serious than normal flu, and most of those who have sadly died would have died ANYWAY because of outstanding problems.
Happy days,


Seasonal flu has a death rate of about 0.1%, and is significantly less infectious than Covid-19. Even small percentages of very big infection numbers end up being significant, which is why it has overwhelmed the health system of Northern Italy, where death rates have been more like 5% and up; at present the international average mortality rate appears to be about 3.4%. It's all very well to be macho and concentrate on the disappointment of cancelled tour plans and berating civil servants, but experts and expert organisations like the WHO are really very concerned about this, so taking it seriously would seem to be sensible.

(And though I'll leave the choice of loo roll or moss to the individual, we should all wash our hands properly afterwards...)

pwa
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Re: Corona virus - impact on European tours in next 3 months?

Postby pwa » 16 Mar 2020, 2:02pm

JakobW wrote:
Morzedec wrote:Stop scaremongering, and tell the Press to do the same: with a current death rate of only 0.3% of those infected the problem is far less serious than normal flu, and most of those who have sadly died would have died ANYWAY because of outstanding problems.
Happy days,


Seasonal flu has a death rate of about 0.1%, and is significantly less infectious than Covid-19. Even small percentages of very big infection numbers end up being significant, which is why it has overwhelmed the health system of Northern Italy, where death rates have been more like 5% and up; at present the international average mortality rate appears to be about 3.4%. It's all very well to be macho and concentrate on the disappointment of cancelled tour plans and berating civil servants, but experts and expert organisations like the WHO are really very concerned about this, so taking it seriously would seem to be sensible.

(And though I'll leave the choice of loo roll or moss to the individual, we should all wash our hands properly afterwards...)

I think the reason some talk of death rates of 3.4% and others of 1% or less is that the latter assumes (rightly or wrongly) that many cases are so slight that they are not reported, and that the recorded deaths are therefore in relation to a significantly higher number of cases of infection. Let's hope that's right. Either way, a lot of people will die earlier than they would have done.

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Re: Corona virus - impact on European tours in next 3 months?

Postby mjr » 16 Mar 2020, 2:18pm

Can we PLEASE keep this to touring and not let the general virus discussion replicate itself everywhere?

mjr wrote:All but one of the transport and hotel bookings for our summer bike tour have announced they'll allow free postponement, with most free cancellation.

A bit further on this: DFDS is only allowing postponement until the end of March 2020, which seems a bit annoying if the crisis is not over in time to tour by mid-October at latest. After that, there won't really be enough daylight in northern Europe IMO, forcing annoying choices between visiting towns in the dark and some cycling in the dark.

Stena Line ferries and Sandton hotel chain seem to be allowing amendment/postponement without fee or obvious time limits, even on fixed deals. Our other bookings were flexibles or going to be booked later anyway, but none of the booked ones seem to have info on their websites or social media (Apollo, C Group and a small hotel). Maybe they don't do fixed deals anyway.

What are other people seeing with their tour bookings?
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Re: Corona virus - impact on European tours in next 3 months?

Postby JakobW » 16 Mar 2020, 2:28pm

pwa wrote:I think the reason some talk of death rates of 3.4% and others of 1% or less is that the latter assumes (rightly or wrongly) that many cases are so slight that they are not reported, and that the recorded deaths are therefore in relation to a significantly higher number of cases of infection. Let's hope that's right. Either way, a lot of people will die earlier than they would have done.


This is true - in South Korea, where they've been testing nearly everyone and doing aggressive contact tracing, the death rate is about 0.9% - but on a public policy level the two effects cancel out somewhat. It means that your individual chance of serious complications if diagnosed positive is lower, but it also suggests that there's a much larger pool of infected people out there; the end result is that you end up needing the same number of hospital ICU beds, which is potentially much more than you can actually provide.

(Edit: mjr, arguably the issue is virulent enough that asking nicely won't be a sufficient containment effort, but point taken...)

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Re: Corona virus - impact on European tours in next 3 months?

Postby speedsixdave » 16 Mar 2020, 9:05pm

mjr wrote:
What are other people seeing with their tour bookings?


Nothing from European Bike Express yet. Am booked with them for 30th May, but I expect that won't happen now.

More significant than my aborted tour is that excellent niche companies like EBE may not survive a whole lost summer of bookings, which would be a massive loss.
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pwa
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Re: Corona virus - impact on European tours in next 3 months?

Postby pwa » 16 Mar 2020, 9:30pm

speedsixdave wrote:
mjr wrote:
What are other people seeing with their tour bookings?


Nothing from European Bike Express yet. Am booked with them for 30th May, but I expect that won't happen now.

More significant than my aborted tour is that excellent niche companies like EBE may not survive a whole lost summer of bookings, which would be a massive loss.

Yep. Lots of small and valued businesses are likely to go under. How many pubs will be left after a three month shut down?

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Re: Corona virus - impact on European tours in next 3 months?

Postby eileithyia » 16 Mar 2020, 10:23pm

speedsixdave wrote:
mjr wrote:
What are other people seeing with their tour bookings?


Nothing from European Bike Express yet. Am booked with them for 30th May, but I expect that won't happen now.

More significant than my aborted tour is that excellent niche companies like EBE may not survive a whole lost summer of bookings, which would be a massive loss.



Been saying similar for a few days, our bike hire company in Mallorca is very much a one man band, certainly he's a small outfit if very busy and gives excellent service. I know he took a hit last year when Thomas Cook , collapsed and clients were not turning up. This could be crucifying. That's before we start to add in all the bars, supermarkets, seasonal shops that open in the tourist sector as the season ramps up. I know all the hotels in Mallorca are shutting down.
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Re: Corona virus - impact on European tours in next 3 months?

Postby RickH » 17 Mar 2020, 3:31pm

BBC News - Coronavirus: Britons urged to avoid non-essential travel abroad

BBC wrote:British nationals should avoid all non-essential foreign travel to tackle the spread of coronavirus, the Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) has advised.

The restrictions will be in place for 30 days initially but could be extended, the foreign secretary said...

... the FCO said travellers should bear in mind that flights could be cancelled at short notice as foreign countries grapple with restrictions being imposed by their own authorities...

... Mr Raab said anyone who is still considering foreign travel should be "realistic about the level of disruption they are willing and able to endure".

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Re: Corona virus - impact on European tours in next 3 months?

Postby st599_uk » 17 Mar 2020, 4:03pm

pwa wrote:
speedsixdave wrote:
mjr wrote:
What are other people seeing with their tour bookings?


Nothing from European Bike Express yet. Am booked with them for 30th May, but I expect that won't happen now.

More significant than my aborted tour is that excellent niche companies like EBE may not survive a whole lost summer of bookings, which would be a massive loss.

Yep. Lots of small and valued businesses are likely to go under. How many pubs will be left after a three month shut down?


3 months? The report from Imperial College this morning shows periods where social distancing and school closures are switched on and off depending on ICU usage.

We need to watch what happens in China and S. Korea as they remove restrictions.
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Re: Corona virus - impact on European tours in next 3 months?

Postby djnotts » 17 Mar 2020, 8:50pm

All recreational cycling banned (hefty fines) in Italy and Spain. Reckon UK follow within a week or so.