Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

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reohn2
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Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

Post by reohn2 »

Oldjohnw wrote:I see Mr Hancock is closing all stable doors in 10 days time.

Meanwhile, I wonder if he will write on the side of a bus: "Brexit - £13bn and rising, could've gone to the NHS".

And that's the truth of it.
As the horse(some would say Unicorn)frolics in the meadow of destruction of the country....

PS,The loonies... ...the asylum,etc.

PPS,It's what you get when shysters,liars and incompetents are doing the jobs of responsible competently capable adults with a modicom morality.The whole country is an utter shambolic mess and has been for some years.
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Oldjohnw
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Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

Post by Oldjohnw »

Obviously, Mr Cummings has just remembered that one of his mates is in the face mask manufacturing business.
John
landsurfer
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Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

Post by landsurfer »

reohn2 wrote:
Oldjohnw wrote:I see Mr Hancock is closing all stable doors in 10 days time.

Meanwhile, I wonder if he will write on the side of a bus: "Brexit - £13bn and rising, could've gone to the NHS".

And that's the truth of it.
As the horse(some would say Unicorn)frolics in the meadow of destruction of the country....

PS,The loonies... ...the asylum,etc.

PPS,It's what you get when shysters,liars and incompetents are doing the jobs of responsible competently capable adults with a modicom morality.The whole country is an utter shambolic mess and has been for some years.


+1
“Quiet, calm deliberation disentangles every knot.”
Be more Mike.
The road goes on forever.
Oldjohnw
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Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

Post by Oldjohnw »

There are many reasons to want Johnson and Gove to wear masks, not all of which are connected to Covid.
John
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Mick F
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Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

Post by Mick F »

Oldjohnw wrote:There are many reasons to want Johnson and Gove to wear masks, not all of which are connected to Covid.
Seeing that we're all going to need masks in shops, I bought one of these.
mask.JPG
Mick F. Cornwall
mercalia
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Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

Post by mercalia »

so we are going to get an investigation of the govts handling of the Covid-19 crisis but not yet.

Well Robert Peston at the Spectator supplies his own

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-did-the-uk-s-coronavirus-response-go-so-wrong-?

Not comfortable reading. damning.

eg

e) Why – and this is the biggest question of all – had Whitehall and ministers not learned the most important lesson from the banking crisis of 2007-8, which is that when there is a reasonable prospect of catastrophe, it is far better to intervene early and with devastating force, than do the minimum and hope for the best?

The problem for ministers, Whitehall officials and scientists is that it is not hindsight that condemns them. The SAGE minutes from February are explicit that they had all the information they needed to protect the UK. But for reasons they are yet to adequately explain, they were never confident they could do more than 'reduce the peak incidence of cases'.
reohn2
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Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

Post by reohn2 »

-----------------------------------------------------------
"All we are not stares back at what we are"
W H Auden
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[XAP]Bob
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Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

Post by [XAP]Bob »

Mick F wrote:
Oldjohnw wrote:There are many reasons to want Johnson and Gove to wear masks, not all of which are connected to Covid.
Seeing that we're all going to need masks in shops, I bought one of these.mask.JPG


Makes bank robber’s jobs easier
A shortcut has to be a challenge, otherwise it would just be the way. No situation is so dire that panic cannot make it worse.
There are two kinds of people in this world: those can extrapolate from incomplete data.
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The utility cyclist
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Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

Post by The utility cyclist »

government going to bend the facts again with yet more criminal activity by producing deaths out their arrises and reclassifying deaths that has never being done before in the history of coding a death!
Also thpousands of tests done and no new positive cases, yet apparently there's second wave going to kill 120,000 people, such liars! :twisted:
https://www.rt.com/op-ed/495421-inflate ... ity-rates/
pwa
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Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

Post by pwa »

The utility cyclist wrote:government going to bend the facts again with yet more criminal activity by producing deaths out their arrises and reclassifying deaths that has never being done before in the history of coding a death!
Also thpousands of tests done and no new positive cases, yet apparently there's second wave going to kill 120,000 people, such liars! :twisted:
https://www.rt.com/op-ed/495421-inflate ... ity-rates/

Where do you find these sites? It looks like the sort of stuff Trump would refer to.

Hancock has got the statistics people correcting out Covid deaths that were not actually Covid deaths, so why talk about it as a cover-up when it is no such thing. It is out in the open. I wait with interest to see the adjusted figures which will, hopefully, be a bit less dramatic about the impact of the virus. But my expectation is that the number of people who had Covid, recovered, then died of something else shortly after, will be quite small. But we will see.

That 120 000 figure is one that nobody is saying will happen, so why mention it? It was a worst case scenario if counter measures were not undertaken (which they would be) and all factors went the wrong way, which was not deemed likely, but merely possible. It was not a prediction.
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The utility cyclist
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Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

Post by The utility cyclist »

pwa wrote:
The utility cyclist wrote:government going to bend the facts again with yet more criminal activity by producing deaths out their arrises and reclassifying deaths that has never being done before in the history of coding a death!
Also thpousands of tests done and no new positive cases, yet apparently there's second wave going to kill 120,000 people, such liars! :twisted:
https://www.rt.com/op-ed/495421-inflate ... ity-rates/

Where do you find these sites? It looks like the sort of stuff Trump would refer to.

Hancock has got the statistics people correcting out Covid deaths that were not actually Covid deaths, so why talk about it as a cover-up when it is no such thing. It is out in the open. I wait with interest to see the adjusted figures which will, hopefully, be a bit less dramatic about the impact of the virus. But my expectation is that the number of people who had Covid, recovered, then died of something else shortly after, will be quite small. But we will see.

That 120 000 figure is one that nobody is saying will happen, so why mention it? It was a worst case scenario if counter measures were not undertaken (which they would be) and all factors went the wrong way, which was not deemed likely, but merely possible. It was not a prediction.

So anything outside of what you can comprehend you resort to comparing to a moronic puppet :lol:

The correction is to invent deaths FROM Covid 19 that are not C.19 deaths at all, this is pretty clear, also they aren't actually admitting that their 'count' is utterly false, it uses any mention of a death on the death cert despite flawed tests, despite C.19 being put on cert in place of or as well as pneumonia and counted as a C.19 death, something again that has never ever being done previously.

120,000 is the number the governments experts have stated that could occur this winter, again using false workings out because again, a death by respiratory disease (or any coding within that section) is not a death if respiratory disease is not the underlying cause.
If we had counted this way in previous years using influenza, then literally every person in the country who died would have suffered a flu death given the prevalence of H1N1 and the other strains within society, and the use of a test that amplifies dead matter, amplifies even a single cell to trigger a positive. But that was never done because it would be insane and criminal to project a pandemic based on false counting, this is precisly what the government have done!
Here's the latest death toll from respiratory diseases for England and Wales, again note the death toll is significantly lower than any other year, check the actual deaths FROM 'C.19. and this is 10% of the respiratory deaths YTD, masks are not just a joke, they are utterly unnecessary except in a sterile environment such an operating theatre.
respiratory deaths comparison 2015 to 2020.JPG
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The utility cyclist
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Bicycle Bumper Sticker ?

Post by The utility cyclist »

Jdsk wrote:I doubt that.

About 100 cyclists die on roads in the UK every year, and only some of those are "crushed" by cars.

Probably between 0.9M and 3.5M people in the UK have been infected with the virus, and the distribution is pretty flat by age across adults, although not by region.

Jonathan

Wrong, a number of people have a positive test, that's not remotely the same as being infected, this is admitted by government and all scientists fgs, stop spreading fake news!
Clearly you're ignoring the massive false positives that both BJ and Hancock admitted to, and the government have also (though not openly) admitted to no isolated new virus as per a FOI request?
Someone under 70 has more chance of being killed by/in a motorvehicle than dying directly FROM a respiratory virus as underlying cause.
Jdsk
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Re: Bicycle Bumper Sticker ?

Post by Jdsk »

The utility cyclist wrote:
Jdsk wrote:Probably between 0.9M and 3.5M people in the UK have been infected with the virus, and the distribution is pretty flat by age across adults, although not by region.

Wrong, a number of people have a positive test, that's not remotely the same as being infected, this is admitted by government and all scientists fgs, stop spreading fake news!
Clearly you're ignoring the massive false positives that both BJ and Hancock admitted to, and the government have also (though not openly) admitted to no isolated new virus as per a FOI request?

What values of test specificity, sensitivity and population true prevalence are you using, and what are the sources for those figures, please?

Thanks

Jonathan
Jdsk
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Re: Bicycle Bumper Sticker ?

Post by Jdsk »

The utility cyclist wrote:... and the government have also (though not openly) admitted to no isolated new virus as per a FOI request?

That's a secret response to an FoI request? I've never seen of those before. You've clearly got a copy. Please could you post it in full.

Thanks

Jonathan
Jdsk
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Re: Bicycle Bumper Sticker ?

Post by Jdsk »

Jdsk wrote:
The utility cyclist wrote:
Jdsk wrote:Probably between 0.9M and 3.5M people in the UK have been infected with the virus, and the distribution is pretty flat by age across adults, although not by region.

Wrong, a number of people have a positive test, that's not remotely the same as being infected, this is admitted by government and all scientists fgs, stop spreading fake news!
Clearly you're ignoring the massive false positives that both BJ and Hancock admitted to, and the government have also (though not openly) admitted to no isolated new virus as per a FOI request?

What values of test specificity, sensitivity and population true prevalence are you using, and what are the sources for those figures, please?

The rest is silence?

It is very important to understand the false positive problem.

A useful infographic calculator where you can enter values:
https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1808/infographic

And Spiegelhalter's version, with some realistic input values:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XmiEzi54lBI

Jonathan
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