Road Deaths increase in NW
-
- Posts: 332
- Joined: 3 Jun 2009, 3:20pm
- Location: Lancashire
Road Deaths increase in NW
It appears that Road Deaths are up 42% in the North West. GMP are blaming it, partly, on head case boy racers speeding whilst the roads were freer of traffic during lock down. Anyway, it's a depressing statistic and hopefully not one being repeated in other regions of the UK.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/202 ... g-lockdown
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/202 ... g-lockdown
Re: Road Deaths increase in NW
Are the raw data available?
Jonathan
Jonathan
-
- Posts: 332
- Joined: 3 Jun 2009, 3:20pm
- Location: Lancashire
Re: Road Deaths increase in NW
Jdsk wrote:Are the raw data available?
Jonathan
Total won't be confirmed until next year as far as I'm aware, I'm just taking the headline info from the article.
-
- Posts: 36778
- Joined: 9 Jan 2007, 2:44pm
Re: Road Deaths increase in NW
It's only a few weeks since the police inspectorate published a report - linked on here by Mike Sales from a report in the self-same Grauniad - saying that a reduction in policing was causing a rise in casualties.
The discussion got a bit bogged down in the matter of speed cameras as cash cows.
The report linked in the OP hints that this is a national trend, rather than one restricted to the North West.
The police spokesperson suggests that what might be termed "boy racers" are behind this.
viewtopic.php?f=6&t=139326#p1508569
As I pointed out in that thread, HM Inspectors see boy racers as "vulnerable."
The discussion got a bit bogged down in the matter of speed cameras as cash cows.
The report linked in the OP hints that this is a national trend, rather than one restricted to the North West.
The police spokesperson suggests that what might be termed "boy racers" are behind this.
viewtopic.php?f=6&t=139326#p1508569
As I pointed out in that thread, HM Inspectors see boy racers as "vulnerable."
-
- Posts: 2918
- Joined: 11 Jan 2007, 12:20pm
Re: Road Deaths increase in NW
Smeed's Law.
“I'm not upset that you lied to me, I'm upset that from now on I can't believe you.”
― Friedrich Nietzsche
― Friedrich Nietzsche
Re: Road Deaths increase in NW
Apart from the question of whether it exists isn't this the opposite... traffic volumes went down and deaths/unit time went up?
Wikipedia:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smeed%27s_law
Jonathan
Wikipedia:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smeed%27s_law
Jonathan
-
- Posts: 36778
- Joined: 9 Jan 2007, 2:44pm
Re: Road Deaths increase in NW
Yes.
It seems to me that in normal conditions, traffic congestion is the main thing keeping speeds down, especially away from roads with fixed speed cameras.
After reading the OP in this thread, I wondered about GMP priorities and I found this from the chief constable, early in lockdown. Although he was primarily talking about the pandemic, he referred specifically to how quieter roads had resulted in more speeding.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-m ... r-52300428
It seems to me that in normal conditions, traffic congestion is the main thing keeping speeds down, especially away from roads with fixed speed cameras.
After reading the OP in this thread, I wondered about GMP priorities and I found this from the chief constable, early in lockdown. Although he was primarily talking about the pandemic, he referred specifically to how quieter roads had resulted in more speeding.
Coronavirus: Police chief Ian Hopkins angered by speeding drivers
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-m ... r-52300428
-
- Posts: 7898
- Joined: 7 Mar 2009, 3:31pm
Re: Road Deaths increase in NW
Jdsk wrote:Apart from the question of whether it exists isn't this the opposite... traffic volumes went down and deaths/unit time went up?
Wikipedia:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smeed%27s_law
Jonathan
Smeed's Law observes that the death rate per vehicle decreases as vehicle miles increase. Usually, traffic density inceases as time goes by, of course, but the effect on German road casualty rates of the decrease in numbers of cars caused by WWII is quite striking. The rate per vehicle post war was similar to the rate some years before the war, when vehicle numbers were similar. Subsequently the rate decreased again as traffic density increased.
The empirically derived Law relates casualty rate to traffic density, not time.
I have read one expression of the Law which notes that accidents in a T junction increase not with the increase in traffic movements through it, but with the root of the increase.
It's the same the whole world over
It's the poor what gets the blame
It's the rich what gets the pleasure
Isn't it a blooming shame?
It's the poor what gets the blame
It's the rich what gets the pleasure
Isn't it a blooming shame?
Re: Road Deaths increase in NW
Mike Sales wrote:Jdsk wrote:Apart from the question of whether it exists isn't this the opposite... traffic volumes went down and deaths/unit time went up?
Wikipedia:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smeed%27s_law
Smeed's Law observes that the death rate per vehicle decreases as vehicle miles increase. Usually, traffic density inceases as time goes by, of course, but the effect on German road casualty rates of the decrease in numbers of cars caused by WWII is quite striking. The rate per vehicle post war was similar to the rate some years before the war, when vehicle numbers were similar. Subsequently the rate decreased again as traffic density increased.
The empirically derived Law relates casualty rate to traffic density, not time.
I have read one expression of the Law which notes that accidents in a T junction increase not with the increase in traffic movements through it, but with the root of the increase.
That Wikipedia article has it as describing the effects on both fatalities per capita (which is what I was referring to) and fatalities per vehicle. Is that definition of what the "law" is disputed?
Thanks
Jonathan
-
- Posts: 7898
- Joined: 7 Mar 2009, 3:31pm
Re: Road Deaths increase in NW
Jdsk wrote:That Wikipedia article has it as describing the effects on both fatalities per capita (which is what I was referring to) and fatalities per vehicle. Is that disputed?
Thanks
Jonathan
No.
I was referring to your use of deaths/unit time as a measure. I suppose deaths per head per year or whatever is relevant. It is always necessary to use the same basis when comparing, but Smeed's point is about traffic density affecting casualty rate, not time.
It's the same the whole world over
It's the poor what gets the blame
It's the rich what gets the pleasure
Isn't it a blooming shame?
It's the poor what gets the blame
It's the rich what gets the pleasure
Isn't it a blooming shame?
Re: Road Deaths increase in NW
I was assuming that the denominator population was constant in this case.
How can you measure fatalities per capita in any useful way without it being per unit time?
(In the original news report that was "in the same period last year"... a unit of time.)
Jonathan
How can you measure fatalities per capita in any useful way without it being per unit time?
(In the original news report that was "in the same period last year"... a unit of time.)
Jonathan
-
- Posts: 7898
- Joined: 7 Mar 2009, 3:31pm
Re: Road Deaths increase in NW
Jdsk wrote:I was assuming that the denominator population was constant in this case.
How can you measure fatalities per capita in any useful way without it being per unit time?
(In the original news report that was "in the same period last year"... a unit of time.)
Jonathan
Of course the rate is measured per unit of time, as I just wrote, as well as per head, but Smeed suggests that when the conditions are equalised in this way, as of course they have to be, then traffic density seems to be inversely related to accident rate.
It really would not make much sense to say that twice as many accidents occured if you were comparing double the length of time, would it?
By comparing "the same period" in two different years the time element in itself is removed as a cause of the change.
It's the same the whole world over
It's the poor what gets the blame
It's the rich what gets the pleasure
Isn't it a blooming shame?
It's the poor what gets the blame
It's the rich what gets the pleasure
Isn't it a blooming shame?
Re: Road Deaths increase in NW
That's what I'm saying.
So in this report the metric was number of deaths in six months or whatever. And if you wanted to compare that with another observation that was over a year then you'd normalise both to deaths/ year or deaths/ month. Or some other unit of time.
Deaths per capita isn't useful without that time element.
Jonathan
So in this report the metric was number of deaths in six months or whatever. And if you wanted to compare that with another observation that was over a year then you'd normalise both to deaths/ year or deaths/ month. Or some other unit of time.
Deaths per capita isn't useful without that time element.
Jonathan
Re: Road Deaths increase in NW
Please could we now return to whether the observed change is as predicted by "Smeed's Law" or the opposite?
Jonathan
Jonathan