Gang of six-impact on Xmas

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Jdsk
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Re: Gang of six-impact on Xmas

Postby Jdsk » 21 Sep 2020, 9:30am

Jdsk wrote:
Ben@Forest wrote:
[XAP]Bob wrote:There have been a million deaths worldwide... In the UK there had been ~ 64,000 deaths (that's basically 1 per 1000 population killed) above the adjusted annual average when I did the calculation more than a month ago (i.e. before the second wave).
[Adjusted Annual Average - I took the rolling 5 year average for each week, and noted that we were tracking for a low flu year, so adjusted the numbers a little down to reflect the early weekly death rate]

Are you saying you work out there's 64,000 Covid deaths in UK?

Sounds about right.

Ben@Forest wrote:
Jdsk wrote:
Ben@Forest wrote:Sounds about right.

And how do you know?

[XAP]Bob wrote:Yes - because the number of deaths we would expect, based on the previous 5 years data, is about 65k lower than the number of deaths we did record.

That’s what excess deaths means - this particular strain of COVID is undoubtedly the cause where proximate or otherwise.

Yes. That's for the UK.

And using a completely different dataset the government calculates 42k in England and Wales up to 20/9/2020.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk

And the ONS definition gives 50k in England up to 12/9/2020.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending4september2020

Jonathan

KTHSullivan
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Re: Gang of six-impact on Xmas

Postby KTHSullivan » 21 Sep 2020, 10:29am

Pebble wrote:I'm thinking it could be tho best xmas ever with no family friends or neighbours to visit or entertain - just me and the wife.

+ lots of miles on the bike and lots of beer in front of the fire. I'm looking forward to it already :D


At last a voice of sanity: Xmas, spending money you have not got, buying people you don't like, things they don't need.

BAH HUMBUG bring it on.
Just remember, when you’re over the hill, you begin to pick up speed. :lol:

Ben@Forest
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Re: Gang of six-impact on Xmas

Postby Ben@Forest » 21 Sep 2020, 11:14am

KTHSullivan wrote:At last a voice of sanity: Xmas, spending money you have not got, buying people you don't like, things they don't need.

BAH HUMBUG bring it on.


The father of someone l know has just died (nothing to do with Covid). But because of Covid she last saw her father 8 months ago. Not so happy.

My wife (a nurse) has not seen her elderly parents since March. Now we're wondering whether we'll see them at Xmas. Also not so happy.

I'll remember to toast you on Xmas Day.

pete75
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Re: Gang of six-impact on Xmas

Postby pete75 » 21 Sep 2020, 11:56am

Tangled Metal wrote:
pete75 wrote:
Tangled Metal wrote:Chemistry isn't the same as epidemiology or virology. Next you'll be saying Boris knows about African history / culture because he's a classics scholar.

What is it about people's relationship with STEM that they keep lumping them all in together?


The main science in the fight against C19 where public safety is concerned is statistical and yes I'd expect someone with Merkel's scientific background to understand the stats and their meaning.
And again Yes I'd expect Johnson to know something about African history particularly the parts that were ruled by the Carthaginians, the areas colonised by Rome and certain periods of Pharaonic Egyption history.

Thatcher studied chemistry at Sommerville oxford do you think she got her statistics right on complex matters she had no knowledge of?


There's a great deal of difference between someone who did a first degree in a scientific subject and then retrained as a barrister like Mrs Thatcher and Mrs Merkel who studied one to PhD level then became an assistant Professor teaching it at university level. Anyhow we're not comparing Merkel with Thatcher but with Johnson. I'm saying Merkels' background gave her a head start in understanding the science over Johnson with his background as a newspaper columnist. I also said she was more competent in general. You've stated several times here that you're a man of the right in politics so I don't expect you to agree with either of these statements though you're wrong not to.

Ben@Forest
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Re: Gang of six-impact on Xmas

Postby Ben@Forest » 21 Sep 2020, 12:19pm

pete75 wrote:There's a great deal of difference between someone who did a first degree in a scientific subject and then retrained as a barrister like Mrs Thatcher and Mrs Merkel who studied one to PhD level then became an assistant Professor teaching it at university level.


There is, but Thatcher did actually work as an industrial chemist whereas Merkel's career until politics appears to have been entirely academic. And just as practitioners such as myself learn things from academics it works the other way round too. I have spoken to, been interviewed by, and been on courses run by academics who see that their perception of something can be skewed, wrong or needs re-thinking.

pete75
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Re: Gang of six-impact on Xmas

Postby pete75 » 21 Sep 2020, 12:57pm

Ben@Forest wrote:
pete75 wrote:There's a great deal of difference between someone who did a first degree in a scientific subject and then retrained as a barrister like Mrs Thatcher and Mrs Merkel who studied one to PhD level then became an assistant Professor teaching it at university level.


There is, but Thatcher did actually work as an industrial chemist whereas Merkel's career until politics appears to have been entirely academic. And just as practitioners such as myself learn things from academics it works the other way round too. I have spoken to, been interviewed by, and been on courses run by academics who see that their perception of something can be skewed, wrong or needs re-thinking.


Yes - she spent three or four years as a junior research chemist, as her Wikipedia entry says "Thatcher studied chemistry at Somerville College, Oxford, and worked briefly as a research chemist, before becoming a barrister." Somehow I suspect Merkel picked up somewhat more knowledge of the subject during her career albeit it as an academic. Deriding academics seems very much an "Anglo Saxon" thing.

mercalia
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Re: Gang of six-impact on Xmas

Postby mercalia » 21 Sep 2020, 1:08pm

seems like the hoarding has started due to Lockdown II, the sequel ( cumming soon to your local cinema), with people buying up all the turkeys they can get their greedy mitts on.

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[XAP]Bob
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Re: Gang of six-impact on Xmas

Postby [XAP]Bob » 21 Sep 2020, 10:51pm

pete75 wrote:
Ben@Forest wrote:
pete75 wrote:There's a great deal of difference between someone who did a first degree in a scientific subject and then retrained as a barrister like Mrs Thatcher and Mrs Merkel who studied one to PhD level then became an assistant Professor teaching it at university level.


There is, but Thatcher did actually work as an industrial chemist whereas Merkel's career until politics appears to have been entirely academic. And just as practitioners such as myself learn things from academics it works the other way round too. I have spoken to, been interviewed by, and been on courses run by academics who see that their perception of something can be skewed, wrong or needs re-thinking.


Yes - she spent three or four years as a junior research chemist, as her Wikipedia entry says "Thatcher studied chemistry at Somerville College, Oxford, and worked briefly as a research chemist, before becoming a barrister." Somehow I suspect Merkel picked up somewhat more knowledge of the subject during her career albeit it as an academic. Deriding academics seems very much an "Anglo Saxon" thing.


It’s rather a red top thing - after all, we can’t have educated people discrediting the latest political Willy waving. So experts must be vilified.
A shortcut has to be a challenge, otherwise it would just be the way. No situation is so dire that panic cannot make it worse.
There are two kinds of people in this world: those can extrapolate from incomplete data.

Jdsk
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Re: Gang of six-impact on Xmas

Postby Jdsk » 22 Sep 2020, 1:55pm

Prime Minister today on restrictions: "likely to remain in force for six months".

Impact on Easter?

Jonathan

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mjr
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Re: Gang of six-impact on Xmas

Postby mjr » 22 Sep 2020, 3:15pm

mercalia wrote:seems like the hoarding has started due to Lockdown II, the sequel ( cumming soon to your local cinema), with people buying up all the turkeys they can get their greedy mitts on.

Yep. Bizarre combination of empty shelves at the shops this market day. Some things I'd expect (there's a run on bog roll again despite covid not causing the squits! And yeast has gone missing again) but others are just a bit odd, such as coconut milk and several types of fruit'n'nut chocolate: has Trump called them miracle cures this week?
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Re: Gang of six-impact on Xmas

Postby mjr » 22 Sep 2020, 3:17pm

Jdsk wrote:
Manc33 wrote:It's the same thing with cancer, we all have cancer cells in our bodies our entire lives, but we're always fighting it off.

Do you mean "cancer cells" or oncogenes?

And if the former what's the evidence, please?

There are not cancer cells in our bodies our entire lives: https://www.menshealth.com/health/a1951 ... cer-cells/ or dozens of other attempts to debunk this zombie myth.
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Re: Gang of six-impact on Xmas

Postby mjr » 22 Sep 2020, 3:32pm

Ben@Forest wrote:
pwa wrote:The lockdown was the only tool in the bag at that time. We didn't have the testing capacity of some nations, notably Germany.


Waiting for a vaccine is not a strategy. I don't know why we aren't able to test the way other nations are but in the convoluted world of reporting statistics it's difficult to know what to believe.

Maybe, just maybe, it's got something to do with the way that the Johnson executive seemed to sit on its bum for about a month (not sure why - maybe in denial, maybe the "herd immunity" plan rumour is true) and then turned the testing system into a mess of outsourced national contracts with a party colleague in charge:
https://mobile.twitter.com/TheBrexitCom ... 56/photo/1


Meanwhile, in Germany, public health was actually done at the regional level, with each state contracting in the testing labs that could serve it best. In the early days, they didn't actually know how many tests were being done nationally - certainly no press conference and target headline numbers there.

Of course, in England, public health was theoretically done at county level - but I'd be surprised if any of the public thought it was actually done by the counties, so weak has been their response. All people notice is the national stuff, as Whitehall effectively restructures a chunk of the health service during the pandemic.

One news report today says that one third of UK Covid deaths in July or August were people who died principally because of other conditions. They could have easily died from pneumonia or the flu and no-one would have raised an eyebrow. And l heard a similar view from an NHS doctor months ago.

Well, duh. The principal cause of death is often not the actual illness that got you. I will probably be recorded as dying of a heart attack, same as the last two of my male ancestors. We will still have actually died as a result of an inherited liver disorder!

We are still acting with restraint. How many people in shops don't wear facemasks? How many have not clamoured for foreign holidays or open sports stadia? Whatever the right answer is it isn't more restrictions.

Most people are wearing facemasks and few are clamouring for foreign holidays and it's only a really tiny group who are begging to go play sardines in the football ground. I'm not sure what that's got to do with anything.

I'd agree that the right answer probably isn't more restrictions. It's probably different restrictions. But I don't think Johnson's government knows which restrictions help and which hurt, so they're using ideology instead of science, with traditionalism/revisionism and a paternalistic belief in things being mainly the fault of feckless working-class drunks driving the stupid reintroduction of national early pub closing time (which was abolished to reduce public disorder and crowding!) and table service that the ex-Bullingdon's posh wine bars will survive more easily than the Dog and Duck.
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thirdcrank
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Re: Gang of six-impact on Xmas

Postby thirdcrank » 22 Sep 2020, 4:06pm

Things are most easily analysed by thinking of spin. IMO that's why policies like face coverings and quarantine for travelers were only belatedly introduced. (I do know that there were PPE shortages but home-made face coverings are easy enough to make.)

I anticipate that the next major policy will be advising the vulnerable to stay at home indefinitely. I think it would be a big vote loser to make it compulsory but it can be presented as protecting the vulnerable while getting the country back to work.

landsurfer
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Re: Gang of six-impact on Xmas

Postby landsurfer » 22 Sep 2020, 4:25pm

thirdcrank wrote:I anticipate that the next major policy will be advising the vulnerable to stay at home indefinitely. I think it would be a big vote loser to make it compulsory but it can be presented as protecting the vulnerable while getting the country back to work.


I anticipate that the next major policy will be police out in force to subjugate the people of the UK .... As Boris knows ...from expert advice, ... you can bully C-19 into submission...
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Mick F
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Re: Gang of six-impact on Xmas

Postby Mick F » 22 Sep 2020, 4:36pm

I've been laughing at the new rules regarding pubs.

It's one thing to have a blanket rule, but another thing entirely for the local pubs here. No doubt the same issues for local rural pubs anywhere.
Utterly silly in a small village pub.

We know of a couple of pubs hereabouts where the bar-person is a one person operation and there's no way out from behind the bar without a hike through the building all the way to the tables carrying a tray of pints.

Tables?
What happens if there are no tables, or only two or three small ones?

Waiting staff?
There isn't enough of a taking to pay waiting staff.

Unworkable.
Better to close the pub, or change the rules to common sense.
Mick F. Cornwall