Anyone living in new lock down areas?

Use this board for general non-cycling-related chat, or to introduce yourself to the forum.
mercalia
Posts: 14476
Joined: 22 Sep 2013, 10:03pm
Location: london South

Re: Anyone living in new lock down areas?

Postby mercalia » 16 Oct 2020, 12:37pm

Tangled Metal wrote:Speculation was disproven with schools due to covid studies aiui from various government advisers being interviewed and being asked about schools transmission. Apparently research has disproven the idea that school transmission is more significant rate than the average community transmission. Myths linger on.


I thought the research went further than that and claimed the tranmission rate was insignificant? One problem with that "research" is the why of it. Is the virus the kids get different from the ones adults get? If it is the same virus then transmission issues come down to other factors. And what hasnt been proven false is the matter of other viruses like the flu where schools are a main transmission agent. ( you ask any teacher) So we have a conundrum that needs explaining. Presumably the "research" is only statistical in nature using sample theory, its not infallible.

Jdsk
Posts: 3914
Joined: 5 Mar 2019, 5:42pm

Re: Anyone living in new lock down areas?

Postby Jdsk » 16 Oct 2020, 12:41pm

I'm not aware of any conundrum.

The contribution of a particular mode of contact doesn't have to be the same for different diseases caused by different viruses.

And how would "any teacher" know the relative contribution of the different possible routes of transmission?

Jonathan

Tangled Metal
Posts: 7332
Joined: 13 Feb 2015, 8:32pm

Re: Anyone living in new lock down areas?

Postby Tangled Metal » 16 Oct 2020, 1:16pm

Bugs going round school have to originate in wider community. Compared to similar close contact working environments I wonder whether there's much difference? I have worked at places which had such mass infection as claimed for schools.

Realistically I would have thought it's more about mode of transmission and the likelihood that conditions for infection are met. Kids are disgusting at times, wiping snot on sleeves, coughing without covering mouth etc. Unfortunately I work with people like that and they're adults.

Schools go back about the same time as a change in weather/ season after a long break. A period of holidays and opportunities to catch bugs from other areas. Then straight back into school and the perception of loads of kids catching the same cold or flu. It's often perceived risk that drives myths and that return to school and flu season starting probably reinforces schools being super spreading. It will take a lot of evidence to change that anecdotal based perception. Btw which is more accurate, anecdotal perception or "evidence" or statistical studies of records?

Jdsk
Posts: 3914
Joined: 5 Mar 2019, 5:42pm

Re: Anyone living in new lock down areas?

Postby Jdsk » 16 Oct 2020, 1:24pm

Why put evidence in quotation marks?

Evidence-based methods for this sort of stuff are pretty mature.

Jonathan

mercalia
Posts: 14476
Joined: 22 Sep 2013, 10:03pm
Location: london South

Re: Anyone living in new lock down areas?

Postby mercalia » 16 Oct 2020, 1:24pm

well it seems part of London didnt think it was

Covid: Southall wedding venue hosts 100-guest reception :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll:

what will it take to get thru to these cretins?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-54564448

Jdsk
Posts: 3914
Joined: 5 Mar 2019, 5:42pm

Re: Anyone living in new lock down areas?

Postby Jdsk » 16 Oct 2020, 1:30pm

A good start would be consistent messages that are based on what is known and acknowledge what isn't.

But people have a free choice of where to get their information, and choosing more reliable sources would also help.

Jonathan

User avatar
Paulatic
Posts: 5480
Joined: 2 Feb 2014, 1:03pm
Location: 24 Hours from Lands End

Re: Anyone living in new lock down areas?

Postby Paulatic » 16 Oct 2020, 1:30pm

I rarely bother reading any theories from medical experts they often like to contradict each other.
I’ll carry on with my behaviour learned from a lifetime experience working with animals.
Keep infected stock apart and if you really want a problem stock them tightly and stick them in a shed.
Whatever I am, wherever I am, this is me. This is my life

https://stcleve.wordpress.com/category/lejog/

Jdsk
Posts: 3914
Joined: 5 Mar 2019, 5:42pm

Re: Anyone living in new lock down areas?

Postby Jdsk » 16 Oct 2020, 1:32pm

Paulatic wrote:I rarely bother reading any theories from medical experts they often like to contradict each other.

That's precisely where evidence-based methods help.

Jonathan

DaveReading
Posts: 197
Joined: 24 Feb 2019, 5:37pm

Re: Anyone living in new lock down areas?

Postby DaveReading » 16 Oct 2020, 2:34pm

mercalia wrote:well it seems part of London didnt think it was

Covid: Southall wedding venue hosts 100-guest reception :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll:

what will it take to get thru to these cretins?

Get through? I doubt there's a single person in the country who is unaware that a gathering of 100 people is a no-no.

Another report here: https://www.asianimage.co.uk/news/natio ... reception/ courtesy of AsianImage "The voice of the Asian community".

We can but hope ...

mercalia
Posts: 14476
Joined: 22 Sep 2013, 10:03pm
Location: london South

Re: Anyone living in new lock down areas?

Postby mercalia » 16 Oct 2020, 3:43pm

DaveReading wrote:
mercalia wrote:well it seems part of London didnt think it was

Covid: Southall wedding venue hosts 100-guest reception :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll:

what will it take to get thru to these cretins?

Get through? I doubt there's a single person in the country who is unaware that a gathering of 100 people is a no-no.

Another report here: https://www.asianimage.co.uk/news/natio ... reception/ courtesy of AsianImage "The voice of the Asian community".

We can but hope ...


I dont know about that. I contronted a couple in my local lidl ( only becuase they were in the queue infront of me & I nearly bumped into them) about not wearing face coverings and the guy claimed it wasnt the law since the police werent enforcing it. :roll: what universe are these people living in :roll:

User avatar
DaveP
Posts: 3333
Joined: 9 Mar 2007, 4:20pm
Location: W Mids

Re: Anyone living in new lock down areas?

Postby DaveP » 16 Oct 2020, 5:38pm

mercalia wrote:I dont know about that. I contronted a couple in my local lidl ( only becuase they were in the queue infront of me & I nearly bumped into them) about not wearing face coverings and the guy claimed it wasnt the law since the police werent enforcing it. :roll: what universe are these people living in :roll:


Not the universe I was brought up in, that's for sure.
Sixty years ago Antibiotics were scarce, colds and chills could easily develop into something nasty, there wasn't much you could do about it except for some of the quaint habits we were encouraged to practice. Things like keeping your germs to yourself, by not spitting on the floor, putting something over your mouth and nose when coughing or sneezing. Most people did it. You never heard people making a fuss about it, even though there were always some who didn't bother.
I do realise that there are a lot of other factors involved in the larger picture at the moment, but facemasks seem to have been a trigger point for a lot of people from the outset.
Just how did we get to a state where using a piece of cloth to keep your germs to yourself becomes so contentious?
Trying to retain enough fitness to grow old disgracefully... That hasn't changed!

pwa
Posts: 13307
Joined: 2 Oct 2011, 8:55pm

Re: Anyone living in new lock down areas?

Postby pwa » 20 Oct 2020, 4:01pm

On Friday the whole of Wales goes into a variety of lockdown for 17 days, with the hope that it will stall the train of transmission. Opinions vary as to how effective that will be. It won't directly affect me too much. My wife and I are both in jobs deemed essential so we carry on as usual, but we can only visit shops that sell "essentials" and we cannot take non-essential journeys. Except for bike rides, which count as exercise, and that is allowed in any size portion so long as you start and finish at your home and don't stay anywhere else overnight.

My son, in his early twenties, was told by the lady behind the counter in our village shop that his generation had put us in the situation we are in. He visited her shop to buy a newspaper for an older person in our area who is isolating due to a positive test. He is also a carer (in the professional sense) and he is a student nurse who has done twelve hour shifts caring for Covid patients. We will not be going in that shop again.

Tangled Metal
Posts: 7332
Joined: 13 Feb 2015, 8:32pm

Re: Anyone living in new lock down areas?

Postby Tangled Metal » 20 Oct 2020, 5:03pm

Jdsk wrote:Why put evidence in quotation marks?

Evidence-based methods for this sort of stuff are pretty mature.

Jonathan

Reference to kids getting colds in autumn term being the likely origin.of schools being bug vectors. when that so called evidence backing that theory up is probably more likely because it's the start of cold and flu season and the wider population is also getting more colds. People have perceptions of what's happening that isn't always backed up by fact or research. My anecdotal evidence / perception is that when schools are encountering a run of kids with colds work is too.

pwa
Posts: 13307
Joined: 2 Oct 2011, 8:55pm

Re: Anyone living in new lock down areas?

Postby pwa » 20 Oct 2020, 5:14pm

Tangled Metal wrote:
Jdsk wrote:Why put evidence in quotation marks?

Evidence-based methods for this sort of stuff are pretty mature.

Jonathan

Reference to kids getting colds in autumn term being the likely origin.of schools being bug vectors. when that so called evidence backing that theory up is probably more likely because it's the start of cold and flu season and the wider population is also getting more colds. People have perceptions of what's happening that isn't always backed up by fact or research. My anecdotal evidence / perception is that when schools are encountering a run of kids with colds work is too.

I would expect that kids, being human beings, would pick up and pass on viruses like any other age group. I would assume that until there is firm evidence to the contrary, because that is how we manage risks that have not been thoroughly researched. We go with what seems likely until we have firmer evidence to go off. It baffles me why anyone would think it most likely that kids don't pass it on like other age groups. If that turns out to be the case, great, that would be a big help. But why assume that until we know for sure? It feels a bit like wishful thinking in a desperate situation. We want the kids back at school so we want them not to be virus vectors.......

mercalia
Posts: 14476
Joined: 22 Sep 2013, 10:03pm
Location: london South

Re: Anyone living in new lock down areas?

Postby mercalia » 20 Oct 2020, 5:38pm

WP_20201020_14_45_32_Pro.jpg
Overkill?