Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

[Ellieb]

I believe you are mistaking him for someone who actually has the faintest clue about the subject.

[Jdsk]

UK Statistics Authority: "OSR Statement regarding transparency of data related to COVID-19"
https://osr.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/news/osr-statement-regarding-transparency-of-data-related-to-covid-19/
includes:

"As part of governments’ communications on the pandemic there have been high profile public briefings, media interviews and statements in each of the four nations of the UK. These have rightly drawn on data and analysis to support decisions being announced.

However, the use of data has not consistently been supported by transparent information being provided in a timely manner. As a result, there is potential to confuse the public and undermine confidence in the statistics.

It is important that data are shared in a way that promotes transparency and clarity. It should be published in a clear and accessible form with appropriate explanations of context and sources. It should be made available to all at the time the information is referenced publicly."

You bet.

Jonathan

[Jdsk]

Spiegelhalter on the most recent failure in communication and presentation:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/07/england-lockdown-needed-graphs-mess-statistics-guru-covid

and an ONS blog whose title speaks for itself: "Why trust and transparency are vital in a pandemic"
https://osr.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/why-trust-and-transparency-are-vital-in-a-pandemic/

Some things are hard in an outbreak, these should be easy.

Jonathan

[The utility cyclist]

"SARS-CoV had two highly specific genetic fingerprints. First, unlike the other coronaviruses, the SARS-CoV strain of 2003 did not contain the HE protein. The HE gene is also absent from SARS-CoV2. Further, a short lysine-rich region (KTFPPTEPKKDKKKK) in the N-protein was reported to be unique to SARS-CoV. Intriguingly, the exact same sequence (KTFPPTEPKKDKKKK) is found in the N-protein of SARS-CoV2."

So the same SARS strain and using a PCR test to massively overstate and confirm the initial bias.
CDC document in full https://www.fda.gov/media/134922/download and the question being asked to multiple labs regards isolating the alleged novel virus https://off-guardian.org/2020/06/27/cov ... aningless/

[The utility cyclist]

Spiegelhalter on the most recent failure in communication and presentation:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/07/england-lockdown-needed-graphs-mess-statistics-guru-covid

and an ONS blog whose title speaks for itself: "Why trust and transparency are vital in a pandemic"
https://osr.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/why-trust-and-transparency-are-vital-in-a-pandemic/

Some things are hard in an outbreak, these should be easy.

Jonathan

And ONS have been complicit in the governments lies and deceit, they used incorrect language from the outset regards how deaths were being attributed (using FROM instead of with and still not mentioning that a positive test was no indicator of infection.
Also came out with an incredibly inaccurate and unproven press release stating that 94% of the 'covid' deaths were in fact covid as underlying cause, just no checks and balances done whatsoever on how death certs being filled in, the looseness of the new rules thus making it easier/coercing to incorrectly fill in DC, that's before you even get to the bunk PCR test such that of all the deceased tested pos more than 90% would not be true infections at all and the 28 day rule.
I wouldn't trust ONS if they said that grass is green!

[mjal]

"SARS-CoV had two highly specific genetic fingerprints. First, unlike the other coronaviruses, the SARS-CoV strain of 2003 did not contain the HE protein. The HE gene is also absent from SARS-CoV2. Further, a short lysine-rich region (KTFPPTEPKKDKKKK) in the N-protein was reported to be unique to SARS-CoV. Intriguingly, the exact same sequence (KTFPPTEPKKDKKKK) is found in the N-protein of SARS-CoV2."

So the same SARS strain and using a PCR test to massively overstate and confirm the initial bias.
CDC document in full https://www.fda.gov/media/134922/download and the question being asked to multiple labs regards isolating the alleged novel virus https://off-guardian.org/2020/06/27/cov ... aningless/

https://virologydownunder.com/yes-pcr-t ... vid-virus/

You have not so far replied to my previous post but here is something else for you to consider.

I await your comments.

[Oldjohnw]

Two months ago exactly, SAGE called for a brief national circuit breaker to bring Covid under control.

Then there were 5,594 new cases, 368 people in hospital and 28 deaths.

Yesterday there were 20,252 cases, 16,444 people in hospital and 511 deaths.

[Psamathe]

Two months ago exactly, SAGE called for a brief national circuit breaker to bring Covid under control.

Then there were 5,594 new cases, 368 people in hospital and 28 deaths.

Yesterday there were 20,252 cases, 16,444 people in hospital and 511 deaths.

Apart from the needless deaths, needless additional suffering, needless self-isolation (needless because they could have been avoided if Johnson had listened to those who were somewhat more knowledgeable than he was), apart from those things (which are certainly not "minor"), best way to "protect the economy" is to have short and not too stringent lock-downs when numbers are low but action needed as numbers climbing. Wait until later where numbers are high you need far longer far more stringent lock-downs that have a far worse impact on the economy.

So Johnson's inaction has done the opposite to "protecting the economy" and made economic damage far worse as well as far more deaths, far more illness, far most self-isolation, far more 80% income for the least well-off. And he expects us to appreciate what he's doing?

Ian

[Vorpal]

Keeping businesses open does *not* protect the economy. Quite the opposite. This chart

from Our World in Data clearly shows the correlation between economic decline and deaths per million. Countries that protected their citizens, such as Taiwan and South Korea have experienced much less economic contraction than those that did not. While the UK has other factors influencing the economic contraction, even if we supposed that without Brexit, the UK would be about where the US and Sweden are, it would *still* have experienced more economic contraction than Taiwan, South Korea, Finland, Norway, etc.; countries that followed the recommendations of their scientific specialists and invested appropriately in measures with biggest impact on health.

[thirdcrank]

I was under the impression that the countries which effectively protected their citizens eg S Korea and Taiwan, were largely able to avoid crude measures like lockdowns.

(I get most of my insight, to the extent that it is insight, from MD in Private Eye. It's largely in print form only so no links.)

[Psamathe]

I wonder if it's more than just what is done with "the economy" or rather basing decisions on flawed belief on impacts on "the economy". I don't know details of all of those countries on the chart but I understood that many of the far eastern countries had far better other strategies e.g. ran successful track & trace operations and operated that from very early stages (rather than closing down existing track and trace then ministers declaring their own brilliance on awarding massive contracts to centralised companies with no experience whilst ignoring those bodies who do have experience)..

But that then puts the UK in an even dafter position because if failed to act because apparently our economy cannot survive without pubs being open plus we prioritised jobs for mates over an effective Track & Trace & Testing system.

Ian

[mercalia]

so this is the deficit over the last 20 years



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55032782

One question though. Are these absolute numbers or adjusted for inflation numbers?

I found a website that allows you to say ask what is £20k in 2000 equivilent to today- answer taking in inflation, £33k
so how are we to read such graphs?

it looks like in 2000 year terms the £2,000 bn today is really £1,200 bn . Not so bad?

[thirdcrank]

First, be aware that our public debt is different depending on what you include such as Public Finance Initiatives.

Then, remember that whatever the late Baron Wilson of Rievaulx may have said about the £ in your pocket, printing money devalues it.

[Psamathe]

My simplistic (and undoubtedly technically "wrong") way of thinking about "what public debt is" is that it is what we have to pay back. So borrow £100m to build something we have to pay back that £100m to whoever owns the debt. That we may be able to make some money from whatever it was we built and that it may be worth something is more of an investment decision.

Often what we build is constrained in 2nd hand value anyway. e.g. borrow £200m to build a hospital (no idea about real cost) and when the debt becomes due we are limited as to who we can sell it to and there is a limited market for 2nd hand large central hospitals. It may have some mad "paper value" but in reality something is worth what somebody will pay for it. Plus, normally we still need the hospital so can't sell it anyway.

Ian

[Vorpal]

The strategies of the successful countries varied somewhat. Some comparative studies were done earlier in the year, but I think they found it very difficult to compare situations across countries, and most studies recently have looked at the success of specific strategies. This paper references a few https://www.pnas.org/content/117/41/25897

South Korea depended almost entirely on detection and isolation. They created a workforce of hundreds for track and trace, and authorised them use information normally kept private, such as credit card transactions and closed-circuit television footage. They isolated infected patients and supported those in quarantine to increase compliance, providing food & medical supplies, so they did not need to leave.

Norway took a somewhat different approach & balanced allowed activities (number of social contacts, services & businesses open, use of public transport, etc.) to the community transmission rate. They also implemented a track and trace system, and know where the vast majority of cases have come from.

But AFAICT, the only countries that have required 'lockdowns' are those that let the community transmission get out of hand.