Stevek76 wrote: ↑27 Sep 2022, 6:23pm
How much votes count is quite apparent just from observing the campaigning during election time some seats get the whole (shadow) cabinet visiting, others barely get a few leaflets.
Indeed they could save most of us the bother of exercising the right to vote, that people literally died to get and just have elections in the marginal seats
That said I did get Rebecca Long Bailey stop by for a chat last time but one
can I count on your vote ? she said, no! I replied, then she made the mistake of asking why not. Nice lady
She didn't return last time, but then the jehovah's witnesses never come back either
Ben@Forest wrote: ↑27 Sep 2022, 2:22pm
As can be clearly read it's a response to a post which suggests PR would mean no right-wing governments ever again. That patently wouldn't be the case, and in fact could mean more extreme parties of either left or right could get more of a handle on power in coalition.
At the moment and at the federal level no German political party will do a deal with the AfD. Would that still be the case in 2028? Or 2038? And Die Linke are currently tearing themselves apart.
Nothing like that could possibly happen here could it - no wait, the Tories did a deal with the DUP in 2017.
'Give me my bike, a bit of sunshine - and a stop-off for a lunchtime pint - and I'm a happy man.' - Reg Baker
Given the extreme market reaction, the immediate real world consequences to mortgages and the government refusing to even acknowledge the catastrophic crisis they've ushered in, something will give before the end of the week I think.
Either there will be emergency action of some sort eg on interest rate rises, or the government could fall/ chancellor get sacked/ major u turn announced.
No way this can continue until Nov as government naively seems to hope.
roubaixtuesday wrote: ↑28 Sep 2022, 9:41am
...
No way this can continue until Nov as government naively seems to hope.
Over the next 2 years a lot of fixed term mortgages will have come to the end of the fixed term so a lot of people will be paying a lot more for their mortgage on top of a lot more for their energy on top of a lot higher cost of living.
Whatever the inflation rate might have dropped to by the next General Election most people will be a lot worse off and be very aware of that. So Ms Truss being in hiding and doing nothing is really just handing the keys to Labour.
As you say, the inaction beggars belief but trouble is, what can they do? If they U-turn on some of the changes (enough to reassure "the markets") then they'll look pretty stupid, particularly as this is Truss' manifesto to her party getting her elected, particularly as this is the 1st thing she's done since becoming PM.
Maybe borrow even more to subsidise mortgages? (fair on renters?)
roubaixtuesday wrote: ↑28 Sep 2022, 9:41am
...
No way this can continue until Nov as government naively seems to hope.
Over the next 2 years a lot of fixed term mortgages will have come to the end of the fixed term so a lot of people will be paying a lot more for their mortgage on top of a lot more for their energy on top of a lot higher cost of living.
Whatever the inflation rate might have dropped to by the next General Election most people will be a lot worse off and be very aware of that. So Ms Truss being in hiding and doing nothing is really just handing the keys to Labour.
As you say, the inaction beggars belief but trouble is, what can they do? If they U-turn on some of the changes (enough to reassure "the markets") then they'll look pretty stupid, particularly as this is Truss' manifesto to her party getting her elected, particularly as this is the 1st thing she's done since becoming PM.
Maybe borrow even more to subsidise mortgages? (fair on renters?)
Ian
what can they do?
U turn, or emergency significant rate rise, or emergency budget to slash spending.
Maybe borrow even more to subsidise mortgages?
They can't. More unfunded borrowing = market reaction further rising interest rates = mortgages rise further.
roubaixtuesday wrote: ↑28 Sep 2022, 9:41am
...
No way this can continue until Nov as government naively seems to hope.
Over the next 2 years a lot of fixed term mortgages will have come to the end of the fixed term so a lot of people will be paying a lot more for their mortgage on top of a lot more for their energy on top of a lot higher cost of living.
Whatever the inflation rate might have dropped to by the next General Election most people will be a lot worse off and be very aware of that. So Ms Truss being in hiding and doing nothing is really just handing the keys to Labour.
As you say, the inaction beggars belief but trouble is, what can they do? If they U-turn on some of the changes (enough to reassure "the markets") then they'll look pretty stupid, particularly as this is Truss' manifesto to her party getting her elected, particularly as this is the 1st thing she's done since becoming PM.
Maybe borrow even more to subsidise mortgages? (fair on renters?)
Ian
what can they do?
U turn, or emergency significant rate rise, or emergency budget to slash spending.
...
I think that would mean Kwarteng going immediately. Truus and Kwarteng are good friends (apparently are neighbours). Plus what they are doing was part of Truss' pitch to the Conservative Party (who rejected Sunak as he said it was daft ...), even the name for it "Trussonomics" reflects on her. She's lose all credibility if they did a U-turn.
I agree with you they urgently need to do something but they've dug themselves a very deep hole and I can't see a way out for them if they want to maintain any credibility (and I suspect their own egos and credibility are more important to them than the UK economy/population/etc.)
Psamathe wrote: ↑28 Sep 2022, 10:50am
Over the next 2 years a lot of fixed term mortgages will have come to the end of the fixed term so a lot of people will be paying a lot more for their mortgage on top of a lot more for their energy on top of a lot higher cost of living.
Whatever the inflation rate might have dropped to by the next General Election most people will be a lot worse off and be very aware of that. So Ms Truss being in hiding and doing nothing is really just handing the keys to Labour.
As you say, the inaction beggars belief but trouble is, what can they do? If they U-turn on some of the changes (enough to reassure "the markets") then they'll look pretty stupid, particularly as this is Truss' manifesto to her party getting her elected, particularly as this is the 1st thing she's done since becoming PM.
Maybe borrow even more to subsidise mortgages? (fair on renters?)
Ian
what can they do?
U turn, or emergency significant rate rise, or emergency budget to slash spending.
...
I think that would mean Kwarteng going immediately. Truus and Kwarteng are good friends (apparently are neighbours). Plus what they are doing was part of Truss' pitch to the Conservative Party (who rejected Sunak as he said it was daft ...), even the name for it "Trussonomics" reflects on her. She's lose all credibility if they did a U-turn.
I agree with you they urgently need to do something but they've dug themselves a very deep hole and I can't see a way out for them if they want to maintain any credibility (and I suspect their own egos and credibility are more important to them than the UK economy/population/etc.)
Ian
Aaaaand, right on cue, emergency action: Bank of England announces it's printing unlimited money to buy government debt.
Yes, does seem a little unclear, some form of quantitative easing but possibly not as has been done previously.
Realistically it's all they can do at the moment as the BoE's tools are limited so it's either:
a) increase interest rates to shore up the pound and would tame inflation a little, however this would worsen recessionary affects, increase cost of borrowing to levels that is not ideal for the government and possibly catastrophic for mortgages and everything that stems from that
b) buy government debt (i.e. 'printing money' if you so wish, but that's a very dated term with undertones that make it always sound bad when the blunt reality is that all money in a fiat currency has either been printed by the government or indirectly by approved banks), this may somewhat worsen inflation and lower £ in short term but it shouldn't do so significantly as the £300bn increase in money supply has already been 'priced in' as that's dependent on the government fiscal policy. What it will do (and has done) is decrease the rates on uk government debt through fairly basic supply/demand mechanics (there won't be quite so much gov debt available as the BoE has simply printed some of the required money thus the cost of the remaining bonds goes up a bit and rates therefore down)
Ultimately it's sticking plaster stuff while the incompetent loons responsible for this seem to continue to hide, and everything UK will continue to be lower valued by the market pricing in the risk of said incompetent loons.
The contents of this post, unless otherwise stated, are opinions of the author and may actually be complete codswallop
I wonder if the Tory party members now realise that they have screwed up again, big time. I really don't think it was right for them to chose a prime minister, it should have been left to the elected MPs.
UpWrong wrote: ↑28 Sep 2022, 1:42pm
I wonder if the Tory party members now realise that they have screwed up again, big time. I really don't think it was right for them to chose a prime minister, it should have been left to the elected MPs.
But they've got much lower tax bills, they're happy. Doesn't bother them if the rest of us have to pay for it.
UpWrong wrote: ↑28 Sep 2022, 1:42pm
I wonder if the Tory party members now realise that they have screwed up again, big time. I really don't think it was right for them to chose a prime minister, it should have been left to the elected MPs.
But they've got much lower tax bills, they're happy. Doesn't bother them if the rest of us have to pay for it.
Ian
That's running with the assumption they all could classed as well off. Which may be true or may not. Maybe someone knows !
They only get to choose from a short list of two, one was unlikely to win as he was seen holding the knife that stabbed Boris. They really just wanted Boris back to the main part.
And Liz was the only non assassin choice they had. I suspect who ever wasn't rishi in the final run off would have won. So it's all really his fault
UpWrong wrote: ↑28 Sep 2022, 1:42pm
I wonder if the Tory party members now realise that they have screwed up again, big time. I really don't think it was right for them to chose a prime minister, it should have been left to the elected MPs.
I refer you to the picture I posted earlier.
In the words of the notorious remainer lefties of [checks notes] Swiss Bank UBS, the UK is now run by a "Doomsday cult"
UpWrong wrote: ↑28 Sep 2022, 1:42pm
I wonder if the Tory party members now realise that they have screwed up again, big time. I really don't think it was right for them to chose a prime minister, it should have been left to the elected MPs.
But they've got much lower tax bills, they're happy. Doesn't bother them if the rest of us have to pay for it.
Ian
That's running with the assumption they all could classed as well off. Which may be true or may not. Maybe someone knows !
They only get to choose from a short list of two, one was unlikely to win as he was seen holding the knife that stabbed Boris. They really just wanted Boris back to the main part.
And Liz was the only non assassin choice they had. I suspect who ever wasn't rishi in the final run off would have won. So it's all really his fault
Nope, it's all their fault. Boris had to go regardless of Rishi's resignation, and Javid went at the same time. I find it interesting that Javid is not in the new cabinet even though he backed Truss after pulling out.
Psamathe wrote: ↑28 Sep 2022, 1:46pm
But they've got much lower tax bills, they're happy. Doesn't bother them if the rest of us have to pay for it.
Ian
That's running with the assumption they all could classed as well off. Which may be true or may not. Maybe someone knows !
They only get to choose from a short list of two, one was unlikely to win as he was seen holding the knife that stabbed Boris. They really just wanted Boris back to the main part.
And Liz was the only non assassin choice they had. I suspect who ever wasn't rishi in the final run off would have won. So it's all really his fault
Nope, it's all their fault. Boris had to go regardless of Rishi's resignation, and Javid went at the same time. I find it interesting that Javid is not in the new cabinet even though he backed Truss after pulling out.
Boris had to go because of rishi resigning. That you think he should have gone anyway or he may have gone later doesn't change that fact.