War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

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Psamathe
Posts: 17650
Joined: 10 Jan 2014, 8:56pm

Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by Psamathe »

Jdsk wrote: 1 Oct 2022, 4:48pm
Jdsk wrote: 5 Jul 2022, 6:17pm
Jdsk wrote: 28 Jun 2022, 8:28pm
And it's just been managed:


Screenshot 2022-06-28 at 20.27.44.png
https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/statu ... 8347058176
"NATO Ambassadors signed the Accession Protocols for Finland and Sweden at NATO Headquarters on Tuesday (5 July 2022)... "

"Last week at the Madrid Summit, Allied leaders agreed to invite Finland and Sweden to join NATO following the agreement of a trilateral memorandum between Türkiye, Finland, and Sweden."


https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_197763.htm
"We are taking our decisive step by signing Ukraine's application for accelerated accession to NATO - address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy":
https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/mi ... rayi-78173

Jonathan
Personally I don't see the application as significant other than maybe as part of the bargaining that must happen before there can be a peace. As I understand it (and I have no expertise) a state cannot join NATO whilst occupied/at war. In effect joining whilst at war would legally oblige other NATO countries to join in the war.

Ian
jois
Posts: 334
Joined: 22 Sep 2022, 12:29pm

Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by jois »

Psamathe wrote: 1 Oct 2022, 5:10pm
Jdsk wrote: 1 Oct 2022, 4:48pm
Jdsk wrote: 5 Jul 2022, 6:17pm
"NATO Ambassadors signed the Accession Protocols for Finland and Sweden at NATO Headquarters on Tuesday (5 July 2022)... "

"Last week at the Madrid Summit, Allied leaders agreed to invite Finland and Sweden to join NATO following the agreement of a trilateral memorandum between Türkiye, Finland, and Sweden."


https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_197763.htm
"We are taking our decisive step by signing Ukraine's application for accelerated accession to NATO - address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy":
https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/mi ... rayi-78173

Jonathan
Personally I don't see the application as significant other than maybe as part of the bargaining that must happen before there can be a peace. As I understand it (and I have no expertise) a state cannot join NATO whilst occupied/at war. In effect joining whilst at war would legally oblige other NATO countries to join in the war.

Ian
It's significant as the ukrain joining NATO is what half the war is about in the first place. The other half is about the ukrain joining European Union, they want the Ukrainian grain harvests and so do Russia

NATO is very much in this war, just with out troops on the ground
Psamathe
Posts: 17650
Joined: 10 Jan 2014, 8:56pm

Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by Psamathe »

jois wrote: 1 Oct 2022, 5:16pm
Psamathe wrote: 1 Oct 2022, 5:10pm
Jdsk wrote: 1 Oct 2022, 4:48pm
"We are taking our decisive step by signing Ukraine's application for accelerated accession to NATO - address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy":
https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/mi ... rayi-78173

Jonathan
Personally I don't see the application as significant other than maybe as part of the bargaining that must happen before there can be a peace. As I understand it (and I have no expertise) a state cannot join NATO whilst occupied/at war. In effect joining whilst at war would legally oblige other NATO countries to join in the war.

Ian
It's significant as the ukrain joining NATO is what half the war is about in the first place....
Except Ukraine isn't joining NATO. It has applied but it wont join until at least after Russia is thrown out of Ukraine. And Ukraine was looking to join NATO before and it's looking to join NATO now and it wont happen until Russia is out of Ukraine. So not much has really changed.

Ian
Jdsk
Posts: 24636
Joined: 5 Mar 2019, 5:42pm

Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by Jdsk »

Psamathe wrote: 1 Oct 2022, 5:10pm
Jdsk wrote: 1 Oct 2022, 4:48pm
Jdsk wrote: 5 Jul 2022, 6:17pm
"NATO Ambassadors signed the Accession Protocols for Finland and Sweden at NATO Headquarters on Tuesday (5 July 2022)... "

"Last week at the Madrid Summit, Allied leaders agreed to invite Finland and Sweden to join NATO following the agreement of a trilateral memorandum between Türkiye, Finland, and Sweden."


https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_197763.htm
"We are taking our decisive step by signing Ukraine's application for accelerated accession to NATO - address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy":
https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/mi ... rayi-78173
Personally I don't see the application as significant other than maybe as part of the bargaining that must happen before there can be a peace. As I understand it (and I have no expertise) a state cannot join NATO whilst occupied/at war. In effect joining whilst at war would legally oblige other NATO countries to join in the war.
I think that's untested and I guess that the timing means that it won't become relevant.

This move seems to have two main functions: symbolism of intent, and accelerating the formal process of joining with its required stages and a Membership Action Plan.

Jonathan

PS: "NATO's response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine":
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_192648.htm
with relevant FAQs.
jois
Posts: 334
Joined: 22 Sep 2022, 12:29pm

Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by jois »

Psamathe wrote: 1 Oct 2022, 5:19pm
jois wrote: 1 Oct 2022, 5:16pm
Psamathe wrote: 1 Oct 2022, 5:10pm
Personally I don't see the application as significant other than maybe as part of the bargaining that must happen before there can be a peace. As I understand it (and I have no expertise) a state cannot join NATO whilst occupied/at war. In effect joining whilst at war would legally oblige other NATO countries to join in the war.

Ian
It's significant as the ukrain joining NATO is what half the war is about in the first place....
Except Ukraine isn't joining NATO. It has applied but it wont join until at least after Russia is thrown out of Ukraine. And Ukraine was looking to join NATO before and it's looking to join NATO now and it wont happen until Russia is out of Ukraine. So not much has really changed.

Ian
NATO is fighting the war for them now to a large part, do you think plucky Ukraine is putting the might of Russia to flight all on its own.

They have American real time satellite images and high technology missiles they can drop in a tank turret, its a proxy war
DaveReading
Posts: 746
Joined: 24 Feb 2019, 5:37pm

Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by DaveReading »

Psamathe wrote: 1 Oct 2022, 5:10pm
Jdsk wrote: 1 Oct 2022, 4:48pm
Jdsk wrote: 5 Jul 2022, 6:17pm
"NATO Ambassadors signed the Accession Protocols for Finland and Sweden at NATO Headquarters on Tuesday (5 July 2022)... "

"Last week at the Madrid Summit, Allied leaders agreed to invite Finland and Sweden to join NATO following the agreement of a trilateral memorandum between Türkiye, Finland, and Sweden."


https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_197763.htm
"We are taking our decisive step by signing Ukraine's application for accelerated accession to NATO - address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy":
https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/mi ... rayi-78173

Jonathan
Personally I don't see the application as significant other than maybe as part of the bargaining that must happen before there can be a peace. As I understand it (and I have no expertise) a state cannot join NATO whilst occupied/at war. In effect joining whilst at war would legally oblige other NATO countries to join in the war.
Like you, I have no particular expertise, but I think you have accurately described the situation.

Whether any such stipulation actually exists, it's pretty clear that NATO isn't going to let itself be arm-twisted into a state of war with Russia unless it sees no alternative (e.g. in the event of a nuclear strike).
Psamathe
Posts: 17650
Joined: 10 Jan 2014, 8:56pm

Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by Psamathe »

DaveReading wrote: 1 Oct 2022, 5:41pm
Psamathe wrote: 1 Oct 2022, 5:10pm
Jdsk wrote: 1 Oct 2022, 4:48pm
"We are taking our decisive step by signing Ukraine's application for accelerated accession to NATO - address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy":
https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/mi ... rayi-78173

Jonathan
Personally I don't see the application as significant other than maybe as part of the bargaining that must happen before there can be a peace. As I understand it (and I have no expertise) a state cannot join NATO whilst occupied/at war. In effect joining whilst at war would legally oblige other NATO countries to join in the war.
Like you, I have no particular expertise, but I think you have accurately described the situation.

Whether any such stipulation actually exists, it's pretty clear that NATO isn't going to let itself be arm-twisted into a state of war with Russia unless it sees no alternative (e.g. in the event of a nuclear strike).
I assume that every NATO member has a veto on new countries joining. So even if "NATO" became favourable to rapid Ukraine membership it would only take one country to be unsure. Turkey seems to be trying to act as a mediator or at least talking to both sides so maybe they'd veto? (and they certainly don't seem restrained about threatening veto'ing new memberships).

Ian
Jdsk
Posts: 24636
Joined: 5 Mar 2019, 5:42pm

Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by Jdsk »

Psamathe wrote: 1 Oct 2022, 5:57pmI assume that every NATO member has a veto on new countries joining. So even if "NATO" became favourable to rapid Ukraine membership it would only take one country to be unsure. Turkey seems to be trying to act as a mediator or at least talking to both sides so maybe they'd veto? (and they certainly don't seem restrained about threatening veto'ing new memberships).
Yes, it has to be unanimous.

But the lesson from Sweden and Finland is that Turkey changed their mind...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enlargeme ... and_Sweden

Jonathan
Psamathe
Posts: 17650
Joined: 10 Jan 2014, 8:56pm

Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by Psamathe »

Jdsk wrote: 1 Oct 2022, 6:00pm
Psamathe wrote: 1 Oct 2022, 5:57pmI assume that every NATO member has a veto on new countries joining. So even if "NATO" became favourable to rapid Ukraine membership it would only take one country to be unsure. Turkey seems to be trying to act as a mediator or at least talking to both sides so maybe they'd veto? (and they certainly don't seem restrained about threatening veto'ing new memberships).
Yes, it has to be unanimous.

But the lesson from Sweden and Finland is that Turkey changed their mind...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enlargeme ... and_Sweden

Jonathan
It would only take one country who wouldn't want to cope with body bags being flown home in defence of a new member in a war against Russia.

Once the war is over and peace established and Russia is out of Ukraine then I think it would be easier but whilst war is going on I can't see it happening.

Ian
Jdsk
Posts: 24636
Joined: 5 Mar 2019, 5:42pm

Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by Jdsk »

Psamathe wrote: 1 Oct 2022, 6:07pm...
Once the war is over and peace established and Russia is out of Ukraine then I think it would be easier but whilst war is going on I can't see it happening.
Agreed x2.

Jonathan
Stevek76
Posts: 2085
Joined: 28 Jul 2015, 11:23am

Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by Stevek76 »

Think the NATO thing is mostly just a riposte by Zelenskyy to Putin's shenanigans with the sham referendums and annexations, would think he's well aware that any membership isn't going to happen mid war.

But largely a distraction. Putin's slightly deranged speech yesterday demonstrated again that the major reason for this invasion is a desire to reform some sort of Russian empire, he views Ukraine as not a real country. Nato/eu are fringe reasons at best other than symbolically any relationship Ukraine has with them just demonstrates that it's not Putin's.

Goodness knows where this headed as right now Russia is going backwards but seems intent in sending poorly equipped and barely trained people to the front lines. They lost lyman overnight and given the equipment disparity plus that they're the invaders this time it's unlikely winter is going to do them any favours as it might have done historically.
The contents of this post, unless otherwise stated, are opinions of the author and may actually be complete codswallop
Jdsk
Posts: 24636
Joined: 5 Mar 2019, 5:42pm

Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by Jdsk »

Stevek76 wrote: 1 Oct 2022, 6:17pm...
Goodness knows where this headed as right now Russia is going backwards but seems intent in sending poorly equipped and barely trained people to the front lines. They lost lyman overnight and given the equipment disparity plus that they're the invaders this time it's unlikely winter is going to do them any favours as it might have done historically.
Yes.

RUSI commentary after the announcement:

"Understanding Russia’s Mobilisation":
https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/p ... bilisation

Jonathan

PS:
Screenshot 2022-10-01 at 18.24.54.png
reohn2
Posts: 45158
Joined: 26 Jun 2009, 8:21pm

Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by reohn2 »

Stevek76 wrote: 1 Oct 2022, 6:17pm Think the NATO thing is mostly just a riposte by Zelenskyy to Putin's shenanigans with the sham referendums and annexations, would think he's well aware that any membership isn't going to happen mid war.

But largely a distraction. Putin's slightly deranged speech yesterday demonstrated again that the major reason for this invasion is a desire to reform some sort of Russian empire, he views Ukraine as not a real country. Nato/eu are fringe reasons at best other than symbolically any relationship Ukraine has with them just demonstrates that it's not Putin's.
Agreed!
Goodness knows where this headed as right now Russia is going backwards but seems intent in sending poorly equipped and barely trained people to the front lines. They lost lyman overnight and given the equipment disparity plus that they're the invaders this time it's unlikely winter is going to do them any favours as it might have done historically.
The Russian military has been shown up for what they are,poorly equiped,poorly lead,and sadly lacking morale.
The only thing Putin has left is nukes and a hell bent desire to trash what he can't have,it's worrisome that such a powerful loonie is in charge of such weapons,it's a test for NATO to remain united against such tyranny.
If recent Ukrainian advances are anything to go by and the total lack of training,leadership and equipement the Russians have it looks like they'll be driven out of the Ukrain,hopefully the madman Putin will be deposed in the interim.
It's certainly costing a lot of human loss and suffering,but then madmen never care about the human cost of their mad mind plans!
-----------------------------------------------------------
"All we are not stares back at what we are"
W H Auden
reohn2
Posts: 45158
Joined: 26 Jun 2009, 8:21pm

Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by reohn2 »

Interesting interview with John Sweeney about about Putin and the Russian military on Time Radio :- https://youtu.be/XxAAIhy4B5Y
-----------------------------------------------------------
"All we are not stares back at what we are"
W H Auden
Jdsk
Posts: 24636
Joined: 5 Mar 2019, 5:42pm

Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by Jdsk »

NB date.

Germany has officially stated that they will supply tanks and allow other countries with Leopards to do the same.

I wish this had happened earlier, but it's now starting. And I expect it to unlock other support.

Jonathan
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