UK energy

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Biospace
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Re: UK energy

Post by Biospace »

Carlton green wrote: 5 Oct 2022, 12:20am
As far as I know, and it was someone on this forum who produced the data, electricity consumption in the UK has fallen in recent years.

I'm pleased you've mentioned this since it's not widely realised that for all the bad news we're told about our use of energy, our consumption does appear to have peaked. It's not just our electricty consumption which has fallen but our use of all energy, not just in Britain but throughout developed nations. Efficiencies have improved, fuel prices have been more heavily taxed and there have been two massive economic shocks to slow the economy - in 2008, the largest economic crisis since the Great Depression of the 1920s, then the closure of much of the economy when people were told to stay in their homes through Covid-19.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... e_1920.xls
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c ... per_capita

Together with the massive shifts towards RE, this has helped clean up our local environment, even though transport energy consumption continues to rise.

However, what has characterised behaviour over the last few decades has been a big shift of manufacturing to China and the Far East where energy comes from a far worse mix of resources and pollution controls are very different from our own. Some have described our boasts of cleaner energy as very hypocritical given we choose to import so much based on nothing more than price.

According to The Guardian, more than hald of our carbon emissions come from abroad.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... rts-carbon

global emission transfers .jpeg
axel_knutt
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Joined: 11 Jan 2007, 12:20pm

Re: UK energy

Post by axel_knutt »

Biospace wrote: 5 Oct 2022, 1:16pmAccording to The Guardian, more than hald of our carbon emissions come from abroad.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... rts-carbon
global emission transfers .jpeg
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/prod ... untry=~GBR
“I'm not upset that you lied to me, I'm upset that from now on I can't believe you.”
― Friedrich Nietzsche
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simonineaston
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Re: UK energy

Post by simonineaston »

As I've mentioned before, all the micro-discussion of who does what, when, why & how is totally irrelevant. What matters is the single measurement of the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
And even that is a binary. The $64 Q. is this: are rising global temp.s going to toggle the atmosphere's macro-feedback loops? Yes or no. If answer yes, then it's likely that all higher life is toast... the only other piece of info that's of any interest is the time scale. In the meantime, us humans will continue to bicker and squabble, without any positive consequence.
S
(on the look out for Armageddon, on board a Brompton nano & ever-changing Moultons)
Carlton green
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Re: UK energy

Post by Carlton green »

simonineaston wrote: 6 Oct 2022, 12:41pm As I've mentioned before, all the micro-discussion of who does what, when, why & how is totally irrelevant. What matters is the single measurement of the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
And even that is a binary. The $64 Q. is this: are rising global temp.s going to toggle the atmosphere's macro-feedback loops? Yes or no. If answer yes, then it's likely that all higher life is toast... the only other piece of info that's of any interest is the time scale. In the meantime, us humans will continue to bicker and squabble, without any positive consequence.
True enough, well I suppose, but on the other hand life is sometimes held in a balance and the smallest of things can tip things one way or the other. I’m for trying to tip the balance for the better and just maybe we collectively can. Looking far ahead is valuable but so is looking to the near future too, I think it best to focus on immediate obstacles on the route forward rather than some difficulties in the future that we many or may not end up needing to negotiate.

At the moment I’m wondering what will happen, at various levels, with Ukraine. Lack of oil and gas will have positive and negative consequences. At another level should someone launch the wrong type of missile then millions will die, what the explosions and loss of population will do for the planet I do not know but life brings many completely unexpected changes.
Don’t fret, it’s OK to: ride a simple old bike; ride slowly, walk, rest and admire the view; ride off-road; ride in your raincoat; ride by yourself; ride in the dark; and ride one hundred yards or one hundred miles. Your bike and your choices to suit you.
roubaixtuesday
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Joined: 18 Aug 2015, 7:05pm

Re: UK energy

Post by roubaixtuesday »

simonineaston wrote: 6 Oct 2022, 12:41pm As I've mentioned before, all the micro-discussion of who does what, when, why & how is totally irrelevant. What matters is the single measurement of the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
And even that is a binary. The $64 Q. is this: are rising global temp.s going to toggle the atmosphere's macro-feedback loops? Yes or no. If answer yes, then it's likely that all higher life is toast... the only other piece of info that's of any interest is the time scale. In the meantime, us humans will continue to bicker and squabble, without any positive consequence.
This post misunderstands climate feedback. There absolutely no chance of losing all higher life, or anything close.

There are positive feedbacks (water vapour, albedo) which amplify carbon dioxide forcing of climate.

However, there are no feasible circumstances in which the overall feedback becomes positive in the engineering sense, leading to a runaway. That's because radiation of energy to space - the Stefan Bolzmann law - is a more powerful negative feedback.

Some positive feedbacks can induce "tipping points" where a change doesn't reverse even if CO2 is later reduced. The classic example is the Greenland ice sheet which is only so cold because it's a mile or two high because of the ice. So if temperate rises, ice melts, altitude drops, so temperature rises further. Once it's gone, even if global temperature later returns to normal, it won't grow again, because the altitude is 10,000ft lower, so the local temperature is much higher.

I'll try and find a reference.

[EDIT: here is a good write up of feedbacks on a blog run by very reputable climate scientists https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/a ... feedbacks/ ]
Last edited by roubaixtuesday on 6 Oct 2022, 1:55pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Cugel
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Re: UK energy

Post by Cugel »

simonineaston wrote: 6 Oct 2022, 12:41pm As I've mentioned before, all the micro-discussion of who does what, when, why & how is totally irrelevant. What matters is the single measurement of the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
And even that is a binary. The $64 Q. is this: are rising global temp.s going to toggle the atmosphere's macro-feedback loops? Yes or no. If answer yes, then it's likely that all higher life is toast... the only other piece of info that's of any interest is the time scale. In the meantime, us humans will continue to bicker and squabble, without any positive consequence.
Wot's this!? You mean the goddess (or is it a godlet) Progress won't come to our rescue, distributing beneficial technologies with a gay abandon? Shurely shome mishtake. Or should we all start stocking up on the lentils and tins of beanz? (I suspect they're already £999.99 each).

On the other hand, we can all get on the Trusser's growth wagon, making oodles of cash with which to buy a bolt hole in New Zealand, with all the other billionaires. Alternatively, I can probably make some form of Anderson shelter in the garden. Will that be enough to ensure survival when Mad Max comes, followed by the nuclear winter from Putin?

Cugel, whistling loudly in the darkening gloom.
“Practical men who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influence are usually the slaves of some defunct economist”.
John Maynard Keynes
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simonineaston
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Re: UK energy

Post by simonineaston »

Technology will be largely irrelevant for the following reason. When the climate we (as in higher animals ie mammals, inc. primates...) depend on is subjected to a marked change in the systems that control its make-up, it's likely to spin wildly away from the state its in now. We absolutely reliant on a relatively narrow band of basic measurements - eg temp., oxygen in the atmosphere, etc. etc. Once the core systems flip-flop, fundamentals like the gas make-up of the atmosphere may become unrecognizable. And for us, unusable. There's a motto going the rounds of planetary scientists to wit, "if you want to know what our Earth would be like if everything went wrong, look at Venus..." Venus has no oxygen.
Folks who dreamily think that climate change will consist of slapping on more Factor 50 and maybe buying an electric car are in for a very rude shock - or rather their kids are.
The atmosphere of Venus is the layer of gases surrounding Venus. It is composed primarily of supercritical carbon dioxide and is much denser and hotter than that of Earth. The temperature at the surface is 740 K (467 °C, 872 °F), and the pressure is 93 bar (1,350 psi), roughly the pressure found 900 m (3,000 ft) underwater on Earth. The Venusian atmosphere supports opaque clouds of sulfuric acid, making optical Earth-based and orbital observation of the surface impossible. Information about the topography has been obtained exclusively by radar imaging. Aside from carbon dioxide, the other main component is nitrogen. Other chemical compounds are present only in trace amounts.
S
(on the look out for Armageddon, on board a Brompton nano & ever-changing Moultons)
roubaixtuesday
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Re: UK energy

Post by roubaixtuesday »

simonineaston wrote: 6 Oct 2022, 2:33pm Once the core systems flip-flop, fundamentals like the gas make-up of the atmosphere may become unrecognizable.
This is not supported by any science.

Please provide a citation.
Dingdong
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Joined: 22 Apr 2022, 4:59pm

Re: UK energy

Post by Dingdong »

roubaixtuesday wrote: 6 Oct 2022, 3:03pm
simonineaston wrote: 6 Oct 2022, 2:33pm Once the core systems flip-flop, fundamentals like the gas make-up of the atmosphere may become unrecognizable.
This is not supported by any science.

Please provide a citation.
Too many people demanding citations. Can we not just take it as read?
Dingdong
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Re: UK energy

Post by Dingdong »

'Show be your working '? Does have a better ring to it! :lol:
roubaixtuesday
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Joined: 18 Aug 2015, 7:05pm

Re: UK energy

Post by roubaixtuesday »

Dingdong wrote: 6 Oct 2022, 3:06pm

Too many people demanding citations. Can we not just take it as read?
No - it's entirely false and against all published science!
roubaixtuesday
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Re: UK energy

Post by roubaixtuesday »

Future projections on temperature change from IPCC under various emission scenarios
Capture.JPG
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/down ... GI_SPM.pdf

The high emission scenarios here are very, very bad indeed, but not remotely "the gas make-up of the atmosphere may become unrecognizable"
Dingdong
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Re: UK energy

Post by Dingdong »

Things look quite stable till about 2060. And that's assuming that no technology/scientific discovery doesn't sort things out by then. Which is give or take about 40 years away.

I daresay almost the majority of this forum will be long planted in the ground by then, my question is, at what point will people stop caring about climate change, especially if these predictions turn out to be 'less than accurate '. One could indeed argue that that point has already been breached, I know very, very few people who make the slightest concession to climate change, most everyone is simply trying to navigate a cost of living crisis spiralling out of control. I doubt very few people put both of those existential threats in the same box. Blame the red tops if you will. The Daily Mail is the biggest 'fake news' culprit by far.

Like I said almost no one I know takes any concrete measures to combat global warming in their own day to day existence. We are where we are, and the vast majority of people believe there is nothing they can do about it, on a personal, domestic basis. Which is fundamentally true. It's international governments, hell bent on maximising their 'output' who are dragging their heels.

Sad but true.
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Mick F
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Re: UK energy

Post by Mick F »

Heard on R4 earlier and people are being advised to use their washing machines at night.

So, after the 30min wash finishes, we have to get out of bed in the dark, and go outside to hang it on the line. :lol: :lol:
Mick F. Cornwall
rjb
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Re: UK energy

Post by rjb »

Next they will be telling us to sleep all day and work all night. :lol:
Gov are looking at cash incentives on offer to reduce electric consumption during the evening peak. 5-8pm approx. This would reward the highest users and selfish consumers who squander energy and offer little incentive to those who have taken heed and already cut there usage.
I suggest they turn off the TV transmitters during this critical period so TV dinners are moved outside of this window. Enjoy your shift work. :lol:
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