Will electric bicycles kill off non-electric bicycles?

[PH]

people still buy manual tools despite the widespread availability and popularity of battery-electric alternatives, screwdrivers, for instance. The OP asks “kill off?”, which sounds pretty absolute to me, and I still think “no”.

I don't think it'll reduce to zero either, more that for transport cycling it'll become the default choice. In much the same way as the electric drill

[willcee]

There are various arguments and opinions all with a degree of merit.. i agree that its not replacing anything and its a seperate market and for me a mainly leisure market..
in my localish area the north coast of Ulster very few cycle to work, weather, traffic lots of vehicular toing and froing over a busy town with a stupid one way system and with a totally pedestrian centre area which is religiously guarded and nonsensical as there so many groupage wagons trailing to and fro and very little back yard access to big stores, that its full to the brim daily by vehicles and is split by a wide river and 2 coastal towns within 4 miles. the weather is so poor that cycle use unless those training and going out along the coast just making their way out or across the urban area..
I have been using E power since before my 2 hip ops so really since '16 when it was totally illegal to use one.. never queried at any stage.. i do service and repair work for those who come seeking advice and often pick their collective thoughts on using E power.. i have offered my machines for a test ride and have a few mates who have been converted and perhaps only use them as leisure cycling..
As the powers at Westminister push industry using crutches so lame into ICE FREE power and they think its going to be 2030, i have grave doubts, so have many of the motor manufacturers and many in the know and living in a real world see no benefit except in large cities to the use of a fully E vehicle, no charge points, no interest from private enterprise, no trade in value, and the first big lithium fire we see in a tower block or underground car park will finish insurance availabilty to owners or users to that sort of vehicle in a enclosed area.. it will happen ..
Its quite hard to get back aboard a leg powered machine, i have several very nice ones and keep promising to get a few miles in, i can remember a conversation with Brucey on this very subject, i miss his wisdom..will

[Ron]

..this has several implications... one of which, if the trend repeats itself throughout the rest of the western world, will we see the end of quality non-sports bikes, such as touring bikes and commuters,

The end of quality non-sports bikes came about many years ago. The cycle industry itself all but killed of utility cycling by failing to promote substantial, low maintenance bicycles, instead encouraging us to buy high maintenance lightweight sportymodels with components unprotected from the elements. New owners who discovered they also had to become cycle mechanics in order to continue cycling soon found alternative modes of transport.
It will not be ebikes that 'kill off' utility biycles completely.

[Mike Sales]

..this has several implications... one of which, if the trend repeats itself throughout the rest of the western world, will we see the end of quality non-sports bikes, such as touring bikes and commuters,

The end of quality non-sports bikes came about many years ago. The cycle industry itself all but killed of utility cycling by failing to promote substantial, low maintenance bicycles, instead encouraging us to buy high maintenance lightweight sportymodels with components unprotected from the elements. New owners who discovered they also had to become cycle mechanics in order to continue cycling soon found alternative modes of transport.
It will not be ebikes that 'kill off' utility biycles completely.

Most bikes sold in the past decades have been cheap mountain bike look-alikes. The sort of bike you think people should buy is not the type they bought. I would think that manufacturers and retailers would have been happy to make money out of selling good quality utility bikes, but I don't think that they have quite the command of the market you imagine.

[ossie]

Apparently for the first time sales of e-bikes in Germany are likely to outstrip the sales of non-powered bikes...

Germany is an odd one. Having toured there extensively the vast majority embracing e bikes are in the upper end of the age scale, they also have the infrastructure to enable grandad to safely cycle from A to B to the shops and back etc without setting pedal on a road. In short it's so much easier and their infrastructure is positively encouraging folk to do it. In other words its a cheap form of transport that is safe and not to taxing on the body. Likewise leisure wise its fully embraced, mainly due to infrastructure.

As an example you can cycle the length of the country without hardly going on a road. From the North Sea to the mountains of Bavaria and thousands of routes between. Many of these routes started in the 60's so its nothing new.

As for the UK, we will never embrace it. I think I'm actually seeing less cyclists than previous years.

[mig]

knowing very little about E bikes my question would be how fast do the components 'age' and become difficult to replace?

e.g. will it still be possible to replace the battery on today's topline model in ,say, 5 years time?

or will the tendency & economics push people towards new bikes at that point?

I asked this very question of the owner of a large retailer of ebikes in outer london/surrey burbs a few years ago. He cheerily said that after 5 to 8 years I would just buy another ebike. Really p'ed me off. I'd just pootled off the downs on a several decades old humble bike I had rebuilt/rejigged.
Personally I will wait. A valid reasonable attitude I think.
Yes of course they have their uses and I wish them all the best in that.

sadly that's what i thought would be the case. it starts to reduce the bike to the level of a mobile phone or laptop. quickening the time at which the new one becomes the 'better' option. having seen a few adverts for e bikes the ones that have the battery packs 'moulded' into the frames seem least forwardly compatible with the battery being probably sealed inside and so forth. an opportunity being missed but we seem always to do so.

i'm all for keeping people on bikes on the road and if electric power promotes that then so be it. cycling purists looking down noses at riders of these - meh!

my 'best' bike is from 1997. i like to look after it and it still does what i want it to do. the others from years directly surrounding that. i'm not particularly looking to be 'retro' it's just that the thing still works and luckily i have the legs and lungs to make it go. i'd consider an E bike as father time catches me up but don't like the thought of junking it within 5 years for another one.

edit - every day a chap HURTLES past my office on some sort of E bike....HUGE tyres on the thing akin to fatbikes......and he's usually catching the (fairly freeflowing) traffic...so easily doing high 20s / low 30s mph without pedalling. the thing is an absolute rocket..!

[PH]

sadly that's what i thought would be the case. it starts to reduce the bike to the level of a mobile phone or laptop. quickening the time at which the new one becomes the 'better' option.

I'm expecting 40 - 50,000 miles from my E-bike with two batteries. 13,000 miles so far with no noticeable drop in capacity, I intend to have that tested when they reach 10,000 ea.

[Jules59]

Cycled Munich to Rome last year.
Bavaria was amazing - I've never seen seen so many e-bikes out and about - great cycle routes away from traffic. As a result many older cyclists are able to enjoy their e-bike cycling around the lakes and up steep climbs that would be out of the question in the UK
But Bavaria is very wealthy and money is clearly spent maintaining the quality of life there.

[Mike_Ayling]

A word from Melbourne DownUnda
For my 80th birthday I bought myself a Merida Speeder 100 and had a Bafang mid motor installed. I have a large battery and pootling around at 20kmh mostly using level 1 assistance I can get at least 250 km range around the local bike paths and I can now keep up with my riding group on the hills.
Today we rode through Jells Park a well used local facility and it looked as if 90% of the recreational riders were on e-assist. There are still plenty of tour de path riders on their road bikes. Age group looked over 30 but a lot younger than 80. Riding home I got on the back of a group of four on e-assist 30 to 40 age range slightly over weight. I dropped back to my usual 20-22 kmh as they wound up to the street legal 25kmh. They were pedalling quite a low cadence but there wereno hand throttles in evidence. I don't believe that these blokes would be cycling without e-assist.

[francovendee]

If Ebike sales continue to increase then I predict we'll still see conventional become much more expensive as they'll fall into the 'enthusiast' category and manufacturers will take advantage of this and put prices up.

[[XAP]Bob]

knowing very little about E bikes my question would be how fast do the components 'age' and become difficult to replace?

e.g. will it still be possible to replace the battery on today's topline model in ,say, 5 years time?

or will the tendency & economics push people towards new bikes at that point?

I asked this very question of the owner of a large retailer of ebikes in outer london/surrey burbs a few years ago. He cheerily said that after 5 to 8 years I would just buy another ebike. Really p'ed me off. I'd just pootled off the downs on a several decades old humble bike I had rebuilt/rejigged.
Personally I will wait. A valid reasonable attitude I think.
Yes of course they have their uses and I wish them all the best in that.

Having the electrics "added on" is in many ways superior... but given that the average car is 12-13 years old when scrapped.... replacing a bike every 5-10 isn't nearly as significant.
The issue is always custom shaped components, so an external BB motor, or a hub motor, with a battery that bolts on to the bottle cage or rack will give you much better serviceability, at the expense of a less polished product.

[PH]

Having the electrics "added on" is in many ways superior... but given that the average car is 12-13 years old when scrapped.... replacing a bike every 5-10 isn't nearly as significant.

I agree, the obsolescence is often bought up without putting it into any context.
I can't remember where I read it, but I believe Bosch have committed to ten years product support, that is from the date they discontinue something.
For my Bosch equipped Trek bike - A replacement battery is 20% the cost of a complete bike and a motor re-build, including all the bearings, is 15%. If needing both of those at the same time, plus maybe that coinciding with the tyres being worn and some of the drivetrain needing replacement, it could easily come to more than half the cost of a new bike. That shiny new bike would very likely be better in some way as yet unknown. What would I do? I don't know the answer, I'm hoping the question won't arise, but it's all to easy to blame the corporate suppliers for what are consumer choices.

[tenbikes]

Is like to see add on mid drives developed more.

I have a couple of Bafang mid drives (and five bikes without e). I like the Bafang, but they could really use an upgrade development.......smaller drive wheels would be neater and fit more frames with less Q factor, cable runs could be neater etc.
It would take me about an hour to switch my two e bikes back to the original set up.

[jb]

They thought CD's and later downloadable music would kill off vinyl.....
There will always be a market for people who like cycling without power.

[Audax67]

They thought CD's and later downloadable music would kill off vinyl.....
There will always be a market for people who like cycling without power.

Oh please... with power, just not electrical.

My electrified bike is lots of fun, and it enables me to do things I haven't been able to since I was 70, but knock 10 years off my age and I'd toss the motor with alacrity.