Will electric bicycles kill off non-electric bicycles?

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Audax67
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Re: Will electric bicycles kill off non-electric bicycles?

Post by Audax67 »

bikes4two wrote: 22 Mar 2023, 11:15pm My cycle touring friend of many a long tour, came with me last year on a hilly ride around the south downs - me on my e-bike, him on an un-asisted machine. The poor chap was absolutely knackered and whilst I congratulated him on his efforts I pointed out that he really needed to consider if such exertion was in fact good for him at his stage of life (something his other cycling buddies had mentioned too.).
Similar story here but t'other way round: my usual cycling partner started with cardiac rhythm problems around 5 years ago, which resulted in him getting an eBike and riding at battery-conservation speed while I was champing at the bit to be away ahead. Then we'd come to a hill and he'd cruise up it while I slaved away with my heart on 110% theoretical max trying not to fall too far behind. Eventually we ended up cycling separately, partly because of this but also because my legs lasted a lot longer than his battery.

Then last year I knuckled under to anno domini and put a motor on my bike. It didn't even things up, though, because in the meantime his heart hasn't got any better and his weight has soared, so that even with the motor he can only manage 18-19 kph. Last outing I did on my own I averaged 23.7 kph, so when we ride together I'm still champing at the bit.
Have we got time for another cuppa?
hoogerbooger
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Re: Will electric bicycles kill off non-electric bicycles?

Post by hoogerbooger »

Bikes4two: My Missus has difficulties with running Breeze rides where some have electric bikes, as if one of them gets at the front they just go to fast. I think you should have been more thoughtful of your mate ! ( or were you just getting him back for being slow to buy a pint the night before !)
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bikes4two
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Re: Will electric bicycles kill off non-electric bicycles?

Post by bikes4two »

hoogerbooger wrote: 23 Mar 2023, 9:22pm Bikes4two: My Missus has difficulties with running Breeze rides where some have electric bikes, as if one of them gets at the front they just go to fast.
  • Yes, mixed rides/bikes shall we say, can be problematic. With my local Portsmouth CTC group there's often a a mix of bike types and generally as experienced riders, there isn't the issue you describe.
  • I think a lot depends on the ebike rider's previous experience with the tendancy for new ebike riders NOT previously experienced on unassited bikes, understanding the dynamics of group riding.
I think you should have been more thoughtful of your mate ! ( or were you just getting him back for being slow to buy a pint the night before !)
  • No, that wasn't the way it was at all - he knew the route as well as I did and I didn't outpace him on my ebike apart from obviously the hilly bits which were easier for me - but I certainly didn't 'rub his nose in it' shall we say- it was simply a case that he felt the strain in the way that he never used to, ultimately realising that he'd get more enjoyment on such rides with a bit of electrical assistance.
  • I led a ride last week and my fellow riders were all un-assisted and at the coffee break, one of them even commented that they hadn't noticed I was e-assisted.
  • I ride a 10 year old traditional style machine with a TSDZ2 and bottle battery, something the casually observant may not notice and only ever use the ECO assist level and use my gears in the way I always did which leads to a riding pace much the same as unassisted riders.
Without my stoker, every trip would only be half a journey
Jon in Sweden
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Re: Will electric bicycles kill off non-electric bicycles?

Post by Jon in Sweden »

A very interesting discussion.

I support the use of e-bikes, especially in the instance of allowing people to ride for much longer as their years advance. I like their addition to cargo bikes and for transporting multiple people/children.

I do think though that many people who buy them don't really need them. For the younger generation, it doesn't take very long or require that much effort to get reasonably fit. To automatically opt for a bike with electrical assistance is denying yourself the possibility of getting properly fit. And being fit means that rides that would seem impossible for the untrained aren't just easy, they're incredibly enjoyable.

As part of a little business that we have here in Sweden organising holiday lets, we're offering bike hire. So far, I've only had a couple of requests for e-bikes, and most people are completely happy with normal bikes. I have looked into e-bikes, but even second hand they are so expensive. This is in stark contrast to a normal hybrid type bike, which I can pick up for £100 or so.

Cycling should be affordable and with e-bikes, that aspect of the appeal is partly lost.
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plancashire
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Re: Will electric bicycles kill off non-electric bicycles?

Post by plancashire »

cycle tramp wrote: 18 Mar 2023, 2:00pm Apparently for the first time sales of e-bikes in Germany are likely to outstrip the sales of non-powered bikes...
Yes, that was reported here in Germany. In the summer my wife and I rode around the Biggesee near Attendorn on our human-powered bikes. As we crested a short rise and rode past a couple of people on a bench they cheered us for using no assistance. We were very much the exception that day.
I am NOT a cyclist. I enjoy riding a bike for utility, commuting, fitness and touring on tout terrain Rohloff, Brompton M3 and Wester Ross 354 plus a Burley Travoy trailer.
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plancashire
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Re: Will electric bicycles kill off non-electric bicycles?

Post by plancashire »

There are three aspects of electric bikes that might slow down their adoption, other than price of course.
  • They are heavy. Houses and flats have cellars in Germany. Heaving an e-bike up steps is impossible for many. My wife is very put off by the weight. Yes, I know there are lighter ones available, but nowhere near as light as her MaxCycles Leichtbau machine.
  • E-bike riders seem to have more accidents, even when correcting for age. Correcting for riding experience is difficult with the statistics available in Germany.
  • They are stolen more often than other bikes, likely because of the high value, but also because they are now so popular in Germany they are easy to sell on - much easier than similarly expensive specialist road bikes. Also, they aren't in the more secure cellar, but in a shed outside (see above).
The UK is way behind Germany in adoption and acceptance of e-bikes. Well, all things cycling really.
I am NOT a cyclist. I enjoy riding a bike for utility, commuting, fitness and touring on tout terrain Rohloff, Brompton M3 and Wester Ross 354 plus a Burley Travoy trailer.
mumbojumbo
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Re: Will electric bicycles kill off non-electric bicycles?

Post by mumbojumbo »

The same question might be expressed thus;

Will watching David Attenbros nature shows kill off observation of wildlife in the field? One experience is real, visceral l and one is passive, anodyne and a poor substitute.
Bmblbzzz
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Re: Will electric bicycles kill off non-electric bicycles?

Post by Bmblbzzz »

PH wrote: 18 Mar 2023, 2:32pm For transport - Yes, or if not kill off then at least hugely diminish
For leisure - No, though they will be a bigger part of that market.
I've been making this point for years, if your needs are primarily transport, there isn't much of an argument, other than cost, to not have assistance.
Cost is a pretty big argument though. I expect that in the long term, non-electric utility bikes are likely to diverge, concentrating in the very cheapest and most expensive (enthusiast) ends, with electric taking the mass in the middle.
Related to cost is availability. You quite likely have a bike somewhere in the back of the shed or if you don't, you can easily get one secondhand, anywhere in the world. It'll be quite a few years till that's the case with e-bikes, except in advanced markets like Germany (or the UK).
But more importantly, transport of what? Where and when? If it's cargo, electric assistance (or plain electric power with pedal assistance) completely makes sense. But if it's just you on a few miles commute, the above factors come into play.
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plancashire
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Re: Will electric bicycles kill off non-electric bicycles?

Post by plancashire »

Bmblbzzz wrote: 28 Mar 2023, 2:20pm But more importantly, transport of what? Where and when? If it's cargo, electric assistance (or plain electric power with pedal assistance) completely makes sense. But if it's just you on a few miles commute, the above factors come into play.
Yes, electrically assisted cargo bikes are becoming a common sight here in Düsseldorf. On my last short trip to the local shops I saw two or three in about 30 minutes of riding and I live on the edge of the city. The cargo is often young children with mum pedalling. It is an excellent alternative to a second car. Well, you have to start somewhere.
I am NOT a cyclist. I enjoy riding a bike for utility, commuting, fitness and touring on tout terrain Rohloff, Brompton M3 and Wester Ross 354 plus a Burley Travoy trailer.
tenbikes
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Re: Will electric bicycles kill off non-electric bicycles?

Post by tenbikes »

mumbojumbo wrote: 27 Mar 2023, 9:06pm One experience is real, visceral l and one is passive, anodyne and a poor substitute.
This. Is exactly why I now ride e off road :)). Visceral sums it up nicely!

Tarmac had always been passive, anodyne and a very poor substitute.......
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Re: Will electric bicycles kill off non-electric bicycles?

Post by Bmblbzzz »

plancashire wrote: 28 Mar 2023, 8:39pm
Bmblbzzz wrote: 28 Mar 2023, 2:20pm But more importantly, transport of what? Where and when? If it's cargo, electric assistance (or plain electric power with pedal assistance) completely makes sense. But if it's just you on a few miles commute, the above factors come into play.
Yes, electrically assisted cargo bikes are becoming a common sight here in Düsseldorf. On my last short trip to the local shops I saw two or three in about 30 minutes of riding and I live on the edge of the city. The cargo is often young children with mum pedalling. It is an excellent alternative to a second car. Well, you have to start somewhere.
They're common here too and I see two main uses: children and commercial deliveries (either specific to one retailer or general couriering). The former seem often to have started as muscle-powered but added electric assistance more recently, while the goods deliveries seem to have adopted electric power from the start.
HeikoS69
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Re: Will electric bicycles kill off non-electric bicycles?

Post by HeikoS69 »

PH wrote: 18 Mar 2023, 2:32pm For transport - Yes, or if not kill off then at least hugely diminish
For leisure - No, though they will be a bigger part of that market.
I live in the lowlands of northwest Germany. Cycling is usually not very hard here (depends on wind), it just takes longer than driving a car.
The rate of e-bikes in leisure traffic in the countryside (not in the city) is well over 90%, in commuter traffic much less.
Leisure cyclists are older on average, but also the younger ones among them use e-bikes, even families with teenager-children (all!), but there are only few families at all driving bicycles for leisure.
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Re: Will electric bicycles kill off non-electric bicycles?

Post by PH »

Bmblbzzz wrote: 28 Mar 2023, 2:20pm
PH wrote: 18 Mar 2023, 2:32pm I've been making this point for years, if your needs are primarily transport, there isn't much of an argument, other than cost, to not have assistance.
Cost is a pretty big argument though.
I disagree. Although there is a small percentage of the UK and Europe population who can't afford one, for the vast majority the barrier is mental rather than financial. It's twofold, first the idea that bikes are toys that only cost a few quid and once that is overcome, the risk that they might spend thousands and still end up with something that wasn't used.
That's why free trials, like the one currently underway in Leicester, are so useful, the chance to see how much value you would get from owning one:
https://www.cyclinguk.org/press-release ... munity-hub
Related to cost is availability. You quite likely have a bike somewhere in the back of the shed
That seems a circular argument - You could use the one in the shed would be true with or without E-bikes.
But more importantly, transport of what?
Do people consider what they're transporting when they get in the car? Sometimes for sure, but probably in most cases not, it's simply to get themselves from A to B.
rareposter
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Re: Will electric bicycles kill off non-electric bicycles?

Post by rareposter »

Bmblbzzz wrote: 28 Mar 2023, 2:20pm
PH wrote: 18 Mar 2023, 2:32pm I've been making this point for years, if your needs are primarily transport, there isn't much of an argument, other than cost, to not have assistance.
Cost is a pretty big argument though.
Wait until you see what cars cost and they're everywhere!

Plenty of places now run try-before-you-buy schemes, most bike shops (even online) will offer some sort of finance and there are also avenues such as Cycle To Work that can be worth exploring although the terms and conditions on those vary quite substantially. My current place of work has a woefully bad and very restrictive scheme but, as with a lot of things (infrastructure being the other major one), if you do something badly, no-one will use it and you can then say "oh but we offered C2W and no-one took us up on it so we scrapped it..."

Plus if the e-bike can replace something like a season ticket, it's not costing anywhere near as much as the up front sale price would suggest. If your annual season ticket on the train is £3000 but you no longer need to use the train because you're riding, you've saved £3000 to put towards the bike.

Replacing the car is a bit more difficult but I've seen plenty of instances where they've replaced a second car which is a huge cost saving. A car can easily cost £2000+ per year just sitting there (depreciation, insurance, servicing, tax) and that's before you start driving the thing and having to pay fuel, wear & tear etc.
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Re: Will electric bicycles kill off non-electric bicycles?

Post by Bmblbzzz »

Cars are everywhere because we've been a hundred years of car-desire. Also because they became the successor to the horse and cart, a gap that cycling didn't manage to fill for whatever reasons.
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