Random helmet-based abuse

[roubaixtuesday]

While I can agree with pjclinch on the point about helmets having varying degrees of benefit wrt head protection I don't think I can agree with this statement.

ie there are plenty of studies that show there is some benefit.

No studies show they make a big difference, and most seem to show benefits too small to quantify. ie it doesn't matter very much.

If there were a big difference, it would be immediately evident across all studies. It isn't.

And here we need to be careful with the language and realise that a study doesn't typically show, it reports.
To show something you typically want a series of repeated experiments using the same methodology confirming the same thing, and while we have lots of studies that report a big effect (e.g., the infamous 85/88% reduction in nasties from Thompson, Rivara and Thompson) what we don't have is consistent effects from an agreed good methodology.

There needs to be a better understanding that a study published in a peer reviewed journal isn't the end of the story (or we'd all be running our homes from cold fusion jam-jar reactors by now), it's part of the overall picture that will (hopefully) work towards a consensus, but in the particular field of cycle helmet efficacy there's nothing like consensus, so picking the ones you like the look of isn't a safe strategy to get the truth.

Pete.

Agree.

[Cowsham]

One study or survey we could do right here on this forum and which would be more relevant to this thread title would be, when you don't wear a helmet on your cycle trip how likely is it that you will receive random helmet-based abuse?

Factors to consider when surveying people might be
( can you think of others to add ? )

1 how long is the trip ?
2 what gender are you ?
3 how much of the trip is near or in populated areas?
4 does any of the abuse come from car drivers?
5 how fast are you travelling?
6 does your altercation involve an error by you?
7 does your altercation involve an error by the random abuser?
8 does your altercation involve an error by a third party?
9 were you wearing any other form of head garment such as a hat ?
10 what type of bicycle ?
11 was there any other altercation before the helmet based abuse took place?
12 what is the time of year the abuse took place?
13 how big and scary are you?

We could make a nice chart with this data and who knows what other conclusions we can derive.

[Cowsham]

No studies show they make a big difference, and most seem to show benefits too small to quantify. ie it doesn't matter very much.

If there were a big difference, it would be immediately evident across all studies. It isn't.

I didn't say 'big difference' I said 'some benefit '

But the point you were disagreeing with did say "big difference".

No that's wrong -- I'm replying to the doesn't make much difference post. It was roubaix that introduced the big difference point.

[Cowsham]

No studies show they make a big difference, and most seem to show benefits too small to quantify. ie it doesn't matter very much.

If there were a big difference, it would be immediately evident across all studies. It isn't.

I didn't say 'big difference' I said 'some benefit '

If the "some benefit" is so small it doesn't even show up in most studies, then we can safely conclude the benefit isn't significant. Hence my "don't make much difference one way or the other" which you seem to disagree with - note the emboldened.

Your opinions on this seems extremely strong given how small the benefits are shown to be, hence analogous to "Academic politics is the most vicious and bitter form of politics, because the stakes are so low."

your comments about me are your opinion BTW. I'm not judging you or anyone else I just ask questions when something doesn't make sense to me. Sometimes I'm enlightened sometimes not, sometimes I have to make up my own mind. I think this is one of those times.

[pjclinch]

I'm not judging you or anyone else

Right...

[roubaixtuesday]

Ah, Just Asking Questions

Who could possibly object to such an approach?

https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Just_asking_questions

[mattheus]

Ah, Just Asking Questions

Who could possibly object to such an approach?

https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Just_asking_questions

[mattheus]

One study or survey we could do right here on this forum and which would be more relevant to this thread title would be, when you don't wear a helmet on your cycle trip how likely is it that you will receive random helmet-based abuse?

Just FYI: I've checked the extensive literature on this:

No TBIs or concussion have been directly causaly linked to random helmet-based abuse.

So I think it's going to be hard to get any legislation through - unless we depend on scare tactics? That might work!

[pjclinch]

Sometimes I'm enlightened sometimes not, sometimes I have to make up my own mind. I think this is one of those times.

So, having seen opinions in some depth from folk up to professors of evidence based medicine and public understanding of risk with international reputations that it's actually all a bit complicated and not the sort of thing that gives easy black and white answers, have you made up your own mind that maybe it's a more complex and nuanced subject than you'd previously assumed, or stuck with the black and white answers?

(Do note that regarding it as complex and nuanced is not "anti helmet", doesn't preclude there being a benefit for you in wearing one and in no way suggests that anyone shouldn't wear one if that's what they want to do, but nor does it make anecdotal evidence a good source of general advice or make it unreasonable to not wear one if one prefers not to and doesn't have to.)

Pete.

[cycle tramp]

One study or survey we could do right here on this forum and which would be more relevant to this thread title would be, when you don't wear a helmet on your cycle trip how likely is it that you will receive random helmet-based abuse?

Factors to consider when surveying people might be
( can you think of others to add ? )

1 how long is the trip ?
2 what gender are you ?
3 how much of the trip is near or in populated areas?
4 does any of the abuse come from car drivers?
5 how fast are you travelling?
6 does your altercation involve an error by you?
7 does your altercation involve an error by the random abuser?
8 does your altercation involve an error by a third party?
9 were you wearing any other form of head garment such as a hat ?
10 what type of bicycle ?
11 was there any other altercation before the helmet based abuse took place?
12 what is the time of year the abuse took place?
13 how big and scary are you?

We could make a nice chart with this data and who knows what other conclusions we can derive.

Yeah, we could do.. but that may only indicate a percentage chance of receiving helmet based abuse, but not whether or not you will or will not during your next ride.

And it's the same with statics drawn from injuries. Which is why the topic of helmets is so fiercely debated. There is no definitive way of knowing (a) if i fall from my bike, will I be injured (b) would wearing a helmet make any difference to the outcome of the injuries (either reducing them or perhaps compounding them)

If you're more inclined to answer no to (a) then (b) becomes irrelevant

[Cowsham]

Ah, Just Asking Questions

Who could possibly object to such an approach?

https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Just_asking_questions

Well not Pete anyway. he'll load them up alright.

Sometimes I'm enlightened sometimes not, sometimes I have to make up my own mind. I think this is one of those times.

So, having seen opinions in some depth from folk up to professors of evidence based medicine and public understanding of risk with international reputations that it's actually all a bit complicated and not the sort of thing that gives easy black and white answers, have you made up your own mind that maybe it's a more complex and nuanced subject than you'd previously assumed, or stuck with the black and white answers?

(Do note that regarding it as complex and nuanced is not "anti helmet", doesn't preclude there being a benefit for you in wearing one and in no way suggests that anyone shouldn't wear one if that's what they want to do, but nor does it make anecdotal evidence a good source of general advice or make it unreasonable to not wear one if one prefers not to and doesn't have to.)

Pete.