Just how long will it take to turn this ship around?

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toontra
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Re: Just how long will it take to turn this ship around?

Post by toontra »

Maybe Al was confusing exports with imports. :wink: UK is actually 4th for imports but as 853 says outside the top 10 for exports.

https://uk.worldoptions.com/news/worlds ... -importers
wheelyhappy99
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Re: Just how long will it take to turn this ship around?

Post by wheelyhappy99 »

I believe all those Institutions are an integral part of the Deep State.... anti progress, anti Industry, LSE, pro EU therefore anti democratic.....backed by shadowy ex politicians and grandees with influence, Blair etc....

Its pretty clear something stinks.....
Indeed it is.

Perhaps you might care to have a closer look at the organisation who have spent years promoting the policies Truss introduced, the Institute for Economic Affairs. Based in 55 Tufton Street, along with a string of other pressure groups masquerading as 'think tanks'. Do let us know if you find out for certain who is funding these organisations.

Here's the assesment of Prof Danny Blanchflower, a respected economist:

Central that everyone makes clear that @trussliz is entirely responsible for her own demise - no claiming @bankofengland OBR @hmtreasury bond foreign exchange or stock markets hedge funds, traders were responsible. She was warned so it is entirely down to her utter @iealondon inspired stupidity and cluelessness

Please also bear in mind that the actions of the BoE and others were taken AFTER the bond markets among others had reacted with horror at the economic effects of huge unfunded tax cuts. The sweet irony of Truss failure as PM is that she was brought down by the reaction of free markets she claims are the basis of economic success. The tragedy is that everyone in this country will be paying for her delusional beliefs for years.
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simonineaston
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Re: Just how long will it take to turn this ship around?

Post by simonineaston »

Lettuce Liz hoisted by the petard she so adored.. That is a super irony, isn’t it?!
But as I’ve pointed out previously, we’re entering a wholey new and different era, where circumstances that are completely beyond our control have become the most significant factors in shaping our economy, both UK and abroad… and most are direct or indirect consequences of climate change.
Examples are: the escalating cost of insurance claims (and therefore premiums) affecting all sorts of essential infrastructure like the cost of food, building projects and travel arrangements. It wont be long till ordinary people won't be able to afford insurance. This has already begun!
The escalating and increasingly unpredictable cost of food due to crop failure. The UK’s farmers and food production are heading for an unprecedented crisis. This has already begun!
The awkward fact that China has a near monopoly of the elements essential for electric car production. We recall that the UK’s busy - some say thriving! manufacturing sector is closely linked to conventional ice vehicle production and the nearer to a deadline for Bev-only, the worse it will be for us… this has already begun…
And that's just for starters. Turn This Ship Around… don't make me laugh!!
S
(on the look out for Armageddon, on board a Brompton nano & ever-changing Moultons)
Jdsk
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Re: Just how long will it take to turn this ship around?

Post by Jdsk »

simonineaston wrote: 15 Apr 2024, 10:27am ...
The awkward fact that China has a near monopoly of the elements essential for electric car production.
...
Which elements, please? And are you referring to current (!) production or reserves?

Jonathan
Psamathe
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Re: Just how long will it take to turn this ship around?

Post by Psamathe »

simonineaston wrote: 15 Apr 2024, 10:27am ..
But as I’ve pointed out previously, we’re entering a wholey new and different era, where circumstances that are completely beyond our control have become the most significant factors in shaping our economy, both UK and abroad… and most are direct or indirect consequences of climate change....
Although not your main point I would regard such issues as under our control. It's just our politicians who are failing us. eg Sunak abandoning targets to switch to lower-climate impacting vehicles, Sunak arguing against low emission zones, wetc. all because he wants votes.

The person jumping off a cliff cannot say "out of my control" as it was their choice to jump, it was under their control, their situation is a choice they made.

We still have the option to mitigate increasing impacts but still seem to be knowingly choosing to not do enough so things getting worse and faster is our choice. We could even start to reduce impacts if we chose to switch to far lower emissions.

And in reality everybody must know is that "Net Zero" is not enough. We have to go "Net Negative" yet we chose to ignore that prospect.

Ian
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simonineaston
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Re: Just how long will it take to turn this ship around?

Post by simonineaston »

According to a study from the prestigious Brooking’s Institution, China presently produces some 60% of the world’s rare earth elements and processes 85% of them.
Quote from article in Forbes - see here and another article here
S
(on the look out for Armageddon, on board a Brompton nano & ever-changing Moultons)
Jdsk
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Re: Just how long will it take to turn this ship around?

Post by Jdsk »

Jdsk wrote: 15 Apr 2024, 10:36am
simonineaston wrote: 15 Apr 2024, 10:27am ...
The awkward fact that China has a near monopoly of the elements essential for electric car production.
...
Which elements, please? And are you referring to current (!) production or reserves?
simonineaston wrote: 15 Apr 2024, 10:51am
According to a study from the prestigious Brooking’s Institution, China presently produces some 60% of the world’s rare earth elements and processes 85% of them.
Quote from article in Forbes - see here and another article here
And as the Forbes article says:

But if Beijing too actively, severely, and frequently denies users these vital materials, it is a good bet that the developed west and Japan will cultivate other sources and develop refining techniques acceptable to their more environmentally sensitive dispositions.

Nowhere near monopoly control.

Jonathan

PS: No comment on the CFACT article, for obvious reasons:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Committee ... e_Tomorrow
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simonineaston
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Re: Just how long will it take to turn this ship around?

Post by simonineaston »

There’s a ton of other articles that describe China’s ‘near monopoly’ - whatever that is… in rare earth elements and how it might become critical in the development of all sorts of important technologies. See below for duckduckgo search, filtered for UK / last 30 days.
Ohdearohdearohdear…
Ohdearohdearohdear…
S
(on the look out for Armageddon, on board a Brompton nano & ever-changing Moultons)
Jdsk
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Re: Just how long will it take to turn this ship around?

Post by Jdsk »

Yes, China has a lot of reserves and provides much of the current (!) supply. But there are
alternatives, as in the Forbes article which you cited. Those alternatives place a powerful (!) limit on China's control.

And lots of people saying the same thing doesn't make anything more or less true.

Jonathan
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al_yrpal
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Re: Just how long will it take to turn this ship around?

Post by al_yrpal »

https://www.cityam.com/services-trade-s ... -exporter/

Goods and Services - UN Data for 2022...

Al
Reuse, recycle, thus do your bit to save the planet.... Get stuff at auctions, Dump, Charity Shops, Facebook Marketplace, Ebay, Car Boots. Choose an Old House, and a Banger ..... And cycle as often as you can......
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simonineaston
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Re: Just how long will it take to turn this ship around?

Post by simonineaston »

…see the pop up vid. bottom R. - Im quite happy with my nano, thanks :lol:
IMG_0273.jpeg
S
(on the look out for Armageddon, on board a Brompton nano & ever-changing Moultons)
pwa
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Re: Just how long will it take to turn this ship around?

Post by pwa »

simonineaston wrote: 15 Apr 2024, 11:42am There’s a ton of other articles that describe China’s ‘near monopoly’ - whatever that is… in rare earth elements and how it might become critical in the development of all sorts of important technologies. See below for duckduckgo search, filtered for UK / last 30 days.IMG_0272.jpeg
"Central Asia key to breaking China's rare earth monopoly". Central Asia! So countries close to and potentially highly influenced by China and Russia! Why would anyone imagine that those two totalitarian regimes would meekly allow the West to move in to exploit central Asian resources? The idea is mad. If resources from that region matter to China and Russia, they will have them.
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simonineaston
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Re: Just how long will it take to turn this ship around?

Post by simonineaston »

Exactly!
My point was to underscore the mess we’re in here in Britain. While it is true that our manufacturing is doing well. its also true that the bulk of our trade, both domestic and abroad, is bound tightly to the vehicle sector, which currently is in the middle of a battle with regard to the move away from ice to battery power. My suspicion is that the move from ice as part of the move to net zero, will be fraught with difficulties., if not impossible.
This is quite apart from two other factors that raise significant friction points, First there is simply a limit to the number of vehicles you can pour into a fixed road estate. We see signs that we’re near that limit, for example the friction that results from pavement parking and close passes, perceived light sentences handed down to dangerous drivers etc etc.
Second, the continuing expansion of domestic credit that’s used to finance the vehicle sector. Mr Micawber would not be impressed by today's car buying arrangements... It can't last. It's a castle built on sand. Even Volvo is Chinese owned.
S
(on the look out for Armageddon, on board a Brompton nano & ever-changing Moultons)
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al_yrpal
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Re: Just how long will it take to turn this ship around?

Post by al_yrpal »

Cars etc are only about 3% or so of the UKs total exports. They are just headline items in the publics and politicians minds. Lots of components are imported. Design and development is done elsewhere. We need more indiginous manufacturing here including design and development not 'screwdriver' plants that are placed here by multinationals for political reasons.

Al
Reuse, recycle, thus do your bit to save the planet.... Get stuff at auctions, Dump, Charity Shops, Facebook Marketplace, Ebay, Car Boots. Choose an Old House, and a Banger ..... And cycle as often as you can......
Carlton green
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Re: Just how long will it take to turn this ship around?

Post by Carlton green »

al_yrpal wrote: 16 Apr 2024, 8:12am Cars etc are only about 3% or so of the UKs total exports. They are just headline items in the publics and politicians minds. Lots of components are imported. Design and development is done elsewhere. We need more indiginous manufacturing here including design and development not 'screwdriver' plants that are placed here by multinationals for political reasons.

Al
I’d be glad to see data on the breakdown of exports.

With cars and pretty much anything else that’s either not too niche or could be possible to make with the UK I’d like to only see the trading of surpluses and the trading for variety rather than for necessity. Because it gets the manufacture here I’m not opposed to making goods to someone else’s designs, but I’d prefer that the design was done and done well in the UK. Partnership with others can be fine and can have value, but retaining our own capabilities is also important too.

One of the biggest issues that the UK faces, and long seems to have faced, is the management of capitalism here. The concept of re-investing as little as possible, constantly taking the maximum return possible and investing (holding shares) for very short periods of time rather than multiples of years. No doubt continental practice isn’t perfect either, but it seems to me that there are useful lessons to be learnt from seemingly more successful countries…

Finally our political system constantly fails the country and particularly so where long term planning is required. We rock and jolt helplessly and hopelessly from one general election to the next. China is successful today because it has an informed and well executed ongoing plan; Westminster seems to just have snouts in the trough the brain behind which has little thought of future year’s dining :roll: .
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