India to be the new China

[cycle tramp]

In many ways, I hope so.. as far as I am aware, unlike China, India has failed to claim that either Taiwan or Japan is part of their territory, nor has it caused political unease with claims to the South Seas - and its spiritualism appears to be in advance of the doctrine laid by the communist party...

..Good luck to them, and if my financial situation fails to improve I may even have to retire there...

[Psamathe]

I wonder how much India becomming a "new China" in terms of low cost industrial manufacturing also involves "offshoring" pollution from manufacturing.

When I was travelling India (a year ago) one aspect that horrified me was the pollution. Low tech production (involving burning inefficient carbon sources), industrial waste into rivers. There is a widespread attitude that the environment is just a convenient sink of waste. Anecdotal examples that really brought home the underlying attitude: In Gujarat I'd been carrying around an empty plastic water bottle looking for a waste bin. Came to a kiosk so purchased a fresh bottle and gave the guy the empty one to throw in his bin but instead he just threw it out into the street no doubt to be added to the small fires on the pavement every 50 m burning the (mainly plastic) rubbish. In Himachal Pradesh on a train travelling through rural countryside and somebody had left a mostly emply plastic coke bottle on the seat and somebody else csame along and rather than put it on the floor to the collected when train cleaned it was just thrown out of the window without a thought. In Delhi (and given the horrendous air pollution in Delhi that this is commonplace makes one appreciate the underlying attitude to pollution):

(lots of plastics in the fire, old discarded flip-flops, plastic bottles, etc.)

Attitude to environmental pollution seemed widespread.

Start sourcing our bulk industrial production to India and I wonder how much we'll be off-shoring (and not paying for) our pollution.

Ian

[Jdsk]

...
The big companies Jonathon is talking about waffle on about strategies but what is really important is energetic and enterprising individuals who quietly get on with stuff and regard trade associations and governments as useless distractions.

I'm not only taking about big companies.

I've worked with lots of very small companies in science and technology spin-offs. They all depend on recruiting a skilled workforce in an area where they want to work, on navigating regulatory frameworks, and on many other factors apart from having bright ideas and working hard.

Jonathan

[al_yrpal]

I once worked for a multi millionaire who taught me many things. He is now a billionaire

His advice was design something unique and protect it, dont be a me too business, keep clear of government and Universities, they both only want your money. Ignore grants. Followed his advice and our venture was very successful.

Al

[Nearholmer]

I wonder how much India becomming a "new China" in terms of low cost industrial manufacturing also involves "offshoring" pollution from manufacturing.

Making mass-consumption goods at low prices always involves exploitation of labour, and environmental despoliation.

The “workshop of the world” has moved around the world over the past couple of centuries in pursuit of abundant natural resources, labour that can be exploited, and low-regulation locations where it’s OK to trash the place.

We no longer make much in the way of mass-consumption goods at low prices, we buy them in instead, because we used up the natural resources (coal, iron, timber etc), started to demand decent living conditions for labour, and (eventually) outlawed most forms of trashing.

Until every country that offers the right conditions has been through what this country went through in the Victorian era, and/or we agree to be seriously exploited and permit trashing again, we’re never going to be the place to produce low-cost, mass-consumption goods.

We’re better off concentrating on “the clever stuff”, biotech, software, very high end mechanical engineering, intellectual products etc.

For the avoidance of doubt, I’m not saying the foregoing is good, just pointing out the unfortunate facts behind most low-cost consumer goods.

[francovendee]

Niche and specialist products usually mean expensive highly profitable items.
These are the same products that developing countries will want to produce.
I fail to see, unless some controls are in place, how this will stop the drift of jobs from the UK.

The threat to ordinary jobs done by overseas competition and the coming of AI is huge.
AI in particular offers immense opportunity to research medicine and will also create wealth but who benefits?
Just the few already rich.
Unless we contemplate letting people stay at home and pay them, how will people make a living?

[Jdsk]

Niche and specialist products usually mean expensive highly profitable items.
These are the same products that developing countries will want to produce.
I fail to see, unless some controls are in place, how this will stop the drift of jobs from the UK.
...

That's why it's essential to discuss competitive advantage, and especially where the UK will have it in the future.

Jonathan

PS: There are many well-studied examples of fears that technological changes will result in mass unemployment. They usually haven't.

[PH]

I wonder how much India becomming a "new China" in terms of low cost industrial manufacturing also involves "offshoring" pollution from manufacturing.

Making mass-consumption goods at low prices always involves exploitation of labour, and environmental despoliation.

The “workshop of the world” has moved around the world over the past couple of centuries in pursuit of abundant natural resources, labour that can be exploited, and low-regulation locations where it’s OK to trash the place.

We no longer make much in the way of mass-consumption goods at low prices, we buy them in instead, because we used up the natural resources (coal, iron, timber etc), started to demand decent living conditions for labour, and (eventually) outlawed most forms of trashing.

Until every country that offers the right conditions has been through what this country went through in the Victorian era, and/or we agree to be seriously exploited and permit trashing again, we’re never going to be the place to produce low-cost, mass-consumption goods.

We’re better off concentrating on “the clever stuff”, biotech, software, very high end mechanical engineering, intellectual products etc.

For the avoidance of doubt, I’m not saying the foregoing is good, just pointing out the unfortunate facts behind most low-cost consumer goods.

The UK didn't run out of coal, there was a political decision to import instead. It wasn't even a good financial decision, although the price per ton was lower, when all factors were taken into account it cost the country more.
Other than that, I'd mostly agree with what you've written, though if we want to look forward rather than backwards, we need to wean ourselves off these low cost consumer goods and onto consuming less quantity and more quality. If we were to do that, then the UK could compete as the low cost labour would be less of factor. That's a fantasy of course, too many of us are addicted to the benefits of exploitation.

[Nearholmer]

There are many well-studied examples of fears that technological changes will result in mass unemployment. They usually haven't.

Hmmmm ….. depends where you are looking at life from.

Standing a long way back, surveying from a distance, maybe, but there are countless examples all over the place of large areas becoming “de-purposed” as a result of the combination of changing technologies and changing locations of production. The post heavy industry “rust-belt” still, runs right across Northern Europe, the UK, and significant parts of the USA in the sense of the de-purposing of large areas.

And, yes , we’ll probably need UBI at some point, if the conventional means of the distribution of earnings from production, wages to the employees, ceases to function due to widespread AI.

[francovendee]

I once worked for a multi millionaire who taught me many things. He is now a billionaire

His advice was design something unique and protect it, dont be a me too business, keep clear of government and Universities, they both only want your money. Ignore grants. Followed his advice and our venture was very successful.

Al

All credit to him and to yourself but not everyone can do it. What happens to poorly educated, unskilled people who don't have the flair and luck to do the same?
I'm sure in 50 years time there will still be many like this in the population.
Do we turn our back and think it's their fault and they should have tried harder or do we try to ensure some jobs not requiring specialist skills remain, with the caveat that they pay a reasonable wage?
In my last company when it relocated out of the UK, the Bio Engineers, Draughtmen (women), HR managers, payroll staff all found jobs within a short period. In fact some were allowed to leave early and still get the payoff.
The guys grinding, polishing and vapour blasting didn't. They didn't have the skills sought by other companies in the area. Likewise the 20 men and women who worked in the clean-rooms.
These people had skills taught in house and were paid a good salary, I know of two who only ever found short term low paid work until retirement.
I'm not having a go at you Al but 'high tech' industries don't provide jobs for the types of people I've mentioned.

[Nearholmer]

The UK didn't run out of coal,

True in the sense that there is plenty there that could be got out on an “at any price” basis.

[Jdsk]

There are many well-studied examples of fears that technological changes will result in mass unemployment. They usually haven't.

Hmmmm ….. depends where you are looking at life from.

Standing a long way back, surveying from a distance, maybe, but there are countless examples all over the place of large areas becoming “de-purposed” as a result of the combination of changing technologies and changing locations of production. The post heavy industry “rust-belt” still, runs right across Northern Europe, the UK, and significant parts of the USA in the sense of the de-purposing of large areas.

And, yes , we’ll probably need UBI at some point, if the conventional means of the distribution of earnings from production, wages to the employees, ceases to function due to widespread AI.

Yes, there can be devastating local short-term effects. And that's why regional policy has such a large part to play.

And yes, we need much better intervention to protect against poverty. And the last ten years have shown us how this can go so badly wrong so quickly.

Jonathan

[Jdsk]

...
All credit to him and to yourself but not everyone can do it. What happens to poorly educated, unskilled people who don't have the flair and luck to do the same?
I'm sure in 50 years time there will still be many like this in the population.
Do we turn our back and think it's their fault and they should have tried harder or do we try to ensure some jobs not requiring specialist skills remain, with the caveat that they pay a reasonable wage?
In my last company when it relocated out of the UK, the Bio Engineers, Draughtmen (women), HR managers, payroll staff all found jobs within a short period. In fact some were allowed to leave early and still get the payoff.
The guys grinding, polishing and vapour blasting didn't. They didn't have the skills sought by other companies in the area. Likewise the 20 men and women who worked in the clean-rooms.
These people had skills taught in house and were paid a good salary, I know of two who only ever found short term low paid work until retirement.
I'm not having a go at you Al but 'high tech' industries don't provide jobs for the types of people I've mentioned.

This is such an important area for intervention. One of the steps is not to think of people only in terms of their existing skills. And the faster the external changes arrive the faster we need to offer and deliver retraining and lifelong education.

There are some very interesting recent programmes delivering retraining in Germany. And many examples from wartime.

Jonathan

[Nearholmer]

there can be devastating local short-term effects

I’m not sure what your measure of short-term is, but the after effects of de-purposing of areas go on for decades, in many cases with no real sign that new purpose will ever be found ……. There are still plenty of places in the UK that are scarred, in terms of life-prospects for those born there, as a result of the shutdown of the cotton-spinning, coal, iron, steel etc industries, the same applies in the USA, and even parts of mainland Europe although “remedial measures” have been a bit more actively followed in many European countries.

Our present economic, social, and political structures simply don’t deal effectively with the mess left behind when an industry packs up, and that leaves me with little hope that they’ll cope any better as AI moves automation to the next level.

[simonineaston]

So, the $64 Q. is this… Given that China’s autocratic leaders are motivated almost exclusively by a perceived need to control their population, and taking into consideration that India’s population is now larger… do we think a) there’s any chance that China will adopt the game of cricket and b) what will happen to curry if the typical Indian becomes fond of the Chinese take-away? And c) how on earth is all this potential chaos going to affect our ability to deal with climate change?