UK Politics

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Nearholmer
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Re: UK Politics

Post by Nearholmer »

The reason we are ageing is because we’re healthier, years back nearly everyone was dead by 70, not now, but we need an immense amount of healthcare to keep us going - you can easily find the figures, but even more easily, think of everyone you know over 60yo, and again everyone over 85yo, and think of all the “conditions” and illnesses that they’ve had or got, and you will find that it really, really tots up. Someone working and paying lots of taxes has to fund all that.

FWIW, which may be nothing, everything I can find suggests that we need c300 000 net migration per annum, coupled with moving the state pension age up to 70yo, and probably breaking the triple lock, to get “over the hump” caused by the birth boom from 1955-65.

If that’s about right, it would be good to say that overtly, talk about it openly, and get on with the things necessary to enable it, like re-shaping the toxic housing market, sorting out education so that it educates people with appropriate skills etc.

What I expect to happen isn’t a sane conversation and sane actions. I expect that everyone will <i>[rude word removed]</i>, bob, and weave, put off the difficult day of facing up to it, under the pressure of the possibly 10% of the population who are seriously xenophobic, certain newspapers, and a few clap-trap politicians, just as has happened for the past decade and more. Like several really huge issues, nobody seems to have the guts to treat the population like intelligent adults …. Hopefully I’m wrong.
Last edited by Nearholmer on 24 May 2024, 8:32am, edited 1 time in total.
Psamathe
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Re: UK Politics

Post by Psamathe »

Nearholmer wrote: 24 May 2024, 8:18am The reason we are ageing is because we’re healthier, years back nearly everyone was dead by 70, not now, but we need an immense amount of healthcare to keep us going - you can easily find the figures, but even more easily, think of everyone you know over 60yo, and again everyone over 85yo, and think of all the “conditions” and illnesses that they’ve had or got, and you will find that it really, really tots up. Someone working and paying lots of taxes has to fund all that.

FWIW, which may be nothing, everything I can find suggests that we need c300 000 net migration per annum, coupled with moving the state pension age up to 70yo, and probably breaking the triple lock, to get “over the hump” caused by the birth boom from 1955-65.

If that’s about right, it would be good to say that overtly, talk about it openly, and get on with the things necessary to enable it, like re-shaping the toxic housing market, sorting out education so that it educates people with appropriate skills etc.
I wonder if people focus too much on the cost of pensions/number of pensions/pension age because that is where significant amounts are being spent. But those living on (New) State pension alone are hardly wealthy.

I wonder if it's a deeper problem where the Gov. is not raising enough tax for its expenditure. Maybe start making big corporations start paying some tax? Maybe close of the non-Dom loopholes, etc. Our tax system seems designed to provide plenty of gaps to ensure the wealthy don't pay tax (or pay a lot less than those struggling to pay the bus fare to get to the food bank).

Maybe we should be looking to where we (don't) raise taxes from rather than cutting from those already in desperate need?

Ian
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al_yrpal
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Re: UK Politics

Post by al_yrpal »

Arent we talking about it? Whatever, we are presently growing the population at double your figure, its unsustainable. 40 year crippling mortgages! Delayed births until well into the 30s. Insecurity of renting. A health service that cant cope.... Overcrowded roads and places to live. Time to make choices

Al
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Nearholmer
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Re: UK Politics

Post by Nearholmer »

Yes Al, we are talking about it here, a few of us. But where are the prominent politicians who have the guts to get grown-up about all this rather than being cowed by the further-right into pretending it away?
I wonder if it's a deeper problem where the Gov. is not raising enough tax for its expenditure
Of course there are corporations getting away with “blue murder” in terms of taking profits from the UK and not paying their fair whack. But catching up with them still wouldn’t close the gap, and it wouldn’t provide people to do jobs, even if it provided more of the money to pay them.
Carlton green
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Re: UK Politics

Post by Carlton green »

Nearholmer wrote: 24 May 2024, 8:37am Yes Al, we are talking about it here, a few of us. But where are the prominent politicians who have the guts to get grown-up about all this rather than being cowed by the further-right into pretending it away?
I wonder if it's a deeper problem where the Gov. is not raising enough tax for its expenditure
Of course there are corporations getting away with “blue murder” in terms of taking profits from the UK and not paying their fair whack. But catching up with them still wouldn’t close the gap, and it wouldn’t provide people to do jobs, even if it provided more of the money to pay them.
People to do jobs. Yes, that’s tricky but large numbers of the population being too sick to work doesn’t help and neither does other folk being occupied caring for them. Help folk back into good health. The lack of part time working and the sometimes intense pressures found within full time jobs is an issue. We as a country need to embrace and promote part time working, facilitate those that can work limited hours to do so.

The tax take is flawed and has been for some time. I’m all in favour of making the large corporations and the rich pay their fair share, it might not be the full answer but it is part of it.
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Psamathe
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Re: UK Politics

Post by Psamathe »

Nearholmer wrote: 24 May 2024, 8:37am Yes Al, we are talking about it here, a few of us. But where are the prominent politicians who have the guts to get grown-up about all this rather than being cowed by the further-right into pretending it away?
I wonder if it's a deeper problem where the Gov. is not raising enough tax for its expenditure
Of course there are corporations getting away with “blue murder” in terms of taking profits from the UK and not paying their fair whack. But catching up with them still wouldn’t close the gap, and it wouldn’t provide people to do jobs, even if it provided more of the money to pay them.
I see finding "people to do the jobs" as a separate issue from thinks like maintaining the triple lock and how much of a struggle we force those we are meant to be supporting.

People talk a lot about the triple lock but it's there to ensure the value of the pension is maintained in real terms. It doesn't provide those living on New State Pension an easy life. It gets expensive when inflation is high. But don't match inflation and those surviving on it wont manage - they are already struggling. Note that in practice there would not be much difference between a triple lock and a double lock as all that would be lost is the min 2.5% which is rare and with inflation target at 2% that would just mean on occasional 0.5% difference! But reduce a "double lock" and those already struggling would be in disaster area.

So my impression is that when people start to question the triple lock what they are really looking to do is reduce the pension bill by paying pensioners less and they are already struggling.

Ian
tim-b
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Re: UK Politics

Post by tim-b »

So my impression is that when people start to question the triple lock what they are really looking to do is reduce the pension bill by paying pensioners less and they are already struggling
The pension bill, ironically, was increased by the undisputed* shortest reigning UK PM and her economic reforms and who continued the "triple lock" at an inflation high of 10.1% https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-63317814

*disputed are the 2nd Earl Waldegrave (4 days) and the Earl of Bath (2 days)
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Psamathe
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Re: UK Politics

Post by Psamathe »

tim-b wrote: 24 May 2024, 9:29am
So my impression is that when people start to question the triple lock what they are really looking to do is reduce the pension bill by paying pensioners less and they are already struggling
The pension bill, ironically, was increased by the undisputed* shortest reigning UK PM and her economic reforms and who continued the "triple lock" at an inflation high of 10.1% https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-63317814

*disputed are the 2nd Earl Waldegrave (4 days) and the Earl of Bath (2 days)
Pensioners are impacted by inflation just like everybody else. Pensioners don't get 8hr weekdays in a building heated by their employer. To reduce the pension increase below inflation would erode value and those living off the pension are already struggling.

Inflation as used for pension increases is covering the last 12 months so pensioners not benefiting from short term "blips".

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mjr
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Re: UK Politics

Post by mjr »

al_yrpal wrote: 24 May 2024, 7:56am Asylum is only a very small part of the total, illegals too, its the rest of the total that is alarming. We are ageing yes, but healthier. Population growth at the present level is unsustainable.
All population growth is unsustainable if continued long enough. We are a long way from unsustainable yet, currently half the % rate of the 1960s, and forecast to zero around 2050.

Going on about it being alarming seems like an attempt to spread fear, uncertainty and doubt, for the benefit of the far right.
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Pendodave
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Re: UK Politics

Post by Pendodave »

mjr wrote: 24 May 2024, 10:22am
al_yrpal wrote: 24 May 2024, 7:56am Asylum is only a very small part of the total, illegals too, its the rest of the total that is alarming. We are ageing yes, but healthier. Population growth at the present level is unsustainable.
All population growth is unsustainable if continued long enough. We are a long way from unsustainable yet, currently half the % rate of the 1960s, and forecast to zero around 2050.

Going on about it being alarming seems like an attempt to spread fear, uncertainty and doubt, for the benefit of the far right.
Population denial is like climate denial. Except practiced by guardianistas rather then Telegraphers.
Firstly, denying that it's an issue at all
Secondly, selective statistics to bamboozle (% instead of absolutes when it suits)
Thirdly, invoking an ex-machina future trend/technology to delay action
Fourthly, claiming that our current behaviour is absolutely necessary to sustain living standards.
Trouble is, just like the climate, population doesn't go away.
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Cugel
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Re: UK Politics

Post by Cugel »

al_yrpal wrote: 24 May 2024, 7:56am Asylum is only a very small part of the total, illegals too, its the rest of the total that is alarming. We are ageing yes, but healthier. Population growth at the present level is unsustainable.

Al
In practice most of the migrants return to their origins, after being educated or working in the jobs that British citizens can't or won't fill. The NHS, for example, is heavily reliant on migrants. Foreign students pour billions into Britain via university fees and all their other spending. Migration has little or nothing to do with the housing crisis in Britain, as another has pointed out.

The housing crisis is due fundamentally to the way housing has become an implement in the finance capitalism hegemony. Houses are regarded as assets rather than abodes. There are a around a million empty houses in Britain, not filled because they're regarded as assets auto-increasing in value rather than places to live.

Politics in Britain (and elsewhere) would need to change some fundamental aspects of "the system" if many of our ills are not to wax and wax. The nature of property ownership and the whole big con trick of finance capitalism and its various usuries need to be utterly transformed to prevent their toxic effects on any society. In addition, the whole notion of growth-as-exploitation and entirely for pointless monetary profits needs to be replaced with a growth that's sustainable and meshed with the natural world, even we often highly unnatural post-modern humans.

None of this is going to happen, especially when silly people read and believe the constant propaganda of our aristocracy-justifying mass media that, "It's just how the world works and problems are due to them others who are not like us". On the contrary, it's just how oligarchs, dictators and every other variety of modern aristocracy works - a zero sum game so the aristos can remain at the top whilst sneering at "those losers" as they exploit the bejasus out of them and blame "foreigners".

It could all work another way ....... but how to change the mad status quo without introducing a worserer state of affairs? Beats me. We humans are far too powerful and far too flawed a nasty swarm of parasites; a planet-wide plague of locusts with very big technological knobs on.
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simonineaston
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Re: UK Politics

Post by simonineaston »

You could easily argue that climate change is simply a function of population levels. If we were to imagine a world where every nation’s pop. was, say, a thousand times lower than current levels, we’d be looking at the US at a third of a million, the UK at 70,000, China and India between them around 3 million. And I bet we’d be looking at pollution levels so much lower that warming simply didn't exist - and who knows? perhaps clean rivers and beaches too.
I’m all in favour of less humans - indeed lots less. This, of course is seen as a nasty frame of mind, however fortunately for me and other fans of this sensible idea, nature agrees and soon, we’ll have all been dealt with. Thank goodness.
S
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Cugel
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Re: UK Politics

Post by Cugel »

Pendodave wrote: 24 May 2024, 11:08am
mjr wrote: 24 May 2024, 10:22am
al_yrpal wrote: 24 May 2024, 7:56am Asylum is only a very small part of the total, illegals too, its the rest of the total that is alarming. We are ageing yes, but healthier. Population growth at the present level is unsustainable.
All population growth is unsustainable if continued long enough. We are a long way from unsustainable yet, currently half the % rate of the 1960s, and forecast to zero around 2050.

Going on about it being alarming seems like an attempt to spread fear, uncertainty and doubt, for the benefit of the far right.
Population denial is like climate denial. Except practiced by guardianistas rather then Telegraphers.
Firstly, denying that it's an issue at all
Secondly, selective statistics to bamboozle (% instead of absolutes when it suits)
Thirdly, invoking an ex-machina future trend/technology to delay action
Fourthly, claiming that our current behaviour is absolutely necessary to sustain living standards.
Trouble is, just like the climate, population doesn't go away.
Human population increase is certainly a problem but not so much in Britain compared to many places. But in a globalised economy and cultural melting-pot, it's the world-wide population pressures that are problematic - for everyone - and has been for some decades. We humans are very good at trashing ecologies, including those that sustain us as well as other creatures.

Technologies since the industrial revolution have vastly amplified the effects of various human-wrought degradations of the biosphere. The pace of technological evolution is also still accelerating, with the inevitable acceleration of those human-wrought degradations.

Various Progressive political attitudes still regard technology's accelerating progress (from simple to complex and more capable) as somehow an auto-cause of progression (from nasty to nice) in human society and behaviours. The opposite is true, of course. Technology in the hands of we same-old-humans is reconstructing the biosphere, of which we are part, to the detriment of many living creatures .... including we humans.

Technology may get so demanding that it destroys the biosphere apart from those few simple entities that can ride out thousands of years of lethal radiation or desiccation of the planet a la Mars. Some wag will claim that, "It's just how the world works". Perhaps they're right, with every planet in the universe developing so-called intelligent life ending up utterly consumed and despoiled by the now-gone intelligent ones?
“Practical men who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influence are usually the slaves of some defunct economist”.
John Maynard Keynes
Psamathe
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Re: UK Politics

Post by Psamathe »

mjr wrote: 24 May 2024, 10:22am
al_yrpal wrote: 24 May 2024, 7:56am Asylum is only a very small part of the total, illegals too, its the rest of the total that is alarming. We are ageing yes, but healthier. Population growth at the present level is unsustainable.
All population growth is unsustainable if continued long enough. We are a long way from unsustainable yet, currently half the % rate of the 1960s, and forecast to zero around 2050.

Going on about it being alarming seems like an attempt to spread fear, uncertainty and doubt, for the benefit of the far right.
I appreciate that worldwide population might not be the issue it was a few years back but I see the "sustainable" aspect as to where that population lives. I think this will be an increasing problem as Climate Change makes significant areas of the world uninhabitable. Add to that how some countries are so resistant to immigration, resistant to adapting despite the positive impacts

Add changes in rainfall and weather patterns and we'll see more disasters with widespread crop failures causing famine. Wars for limited resources, etc. And the world seems to be getting less prepared to provide assistance when desperately needed.

I think it's an issue that is going to get a lot worse in future.

Ian
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mjr
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Re: UK Politics

Post by mjr »

Pendodave wrote: 24 May 2024, 11:08am
mjr wrote: 24 May 2024, 10:22am
al_yrpal wrote: 24 May 2024, 7:56am Asylum is only a very small part of the total, illegals too, its the rest of the total that is alarming. We are ageing yes, but healthier. Population growth at the present level is unsustainable.
All population growth is unsustainable if continued long enough. We are a long way from unsustainable yet, currently half the % rate of the 1960s, and forecast to zero around 2050.

Going on about it being alarming seems like an attempt to spread fear, uncertainty and doubt, for the benefit of the far right.
Population denial is like climate denial. Except practiced by guardianistas rather then Telegraphers.
Firstly, denying that it's an issue at all
Secondly, selective statistics to bamboozle (% instead of absolutes when it suits)
Thirdly, invoking an ex-machina future trend/technology to delay action
Fourthly, claiming that our current behaviour is absolutely necessary to sustain living standards.
Trouble is, just like the climate, population doesn't go away.
Firstly, I didn't do that.

Secondly, measuring growth or decline in % is perfectly usual. It's measuring population change in absolutes that makes no sense because a town of 1000 getting 10,000 new residents is much more stressful than it would be for a city of ten million.

Thirdly, UN population forecasts are not "ex machina" and I don't say we should delay action, but not take panicked knee jerk action because we have some time here to decide rationally, ignoring those who want to sow alarm to get their way.

Fourthly, I didn't do that.

Isn't it strange how the parties that don't want to act on climate want to take panicky sudden action on migration?
MJR, mostly pedalling 3-speed roadsters. KL+West Norfolk BUG incl social easy rides http://www.klwnbug.co.uk
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