UK Politics

[Jdsk]

Thanks. I thought that I had found an open version... but when I linked it from here it was also blocked!

Jonathan

[simonineaston]

It's accessible in my default browser (I'm using ddg on my iPad - iOS17.5.1) but if I switch to my reading list, which opens in the Safari app, I hit the paywall.

[Paulatic]

Archived version here https://archive.ph/2024.06.06-053853/ht ... 50261b3794

[Jdsk]

Archived version here https://archive.ph/2024.06.06-053853/ht ... 50261b3794

Works for me.

Thankyou

Jonathan

[simonineaston]

Nice...

[tim-b]

The polls,the only thing we have to go off,are putting Reform and Tories at about 18% each max,Labour @ 37% last time I looked.

Which might make an interesting coalition at roughly 50:50. Depends on actual MP numbers though

[francovendee]

If Farage gets elected what does it say about the voters of Clacton?

[reohn2]

The polls,the only thing we have to go off,are putting Reform and Tories at about 18% each max,Labour @ 37% last time I looked.

Which might make an interesting coalition at roughly 50:50. Depends on actual MP numbers though

Yep,though it could be very one sided,ask a Lib Dem MP

[reohn2]

If Farage gets elected what does it say about the voters of Clacton?

Do you think he will though?

[djnotts]

The polls,the only thing we have to go off,are putting Reform and Tories at about 18% each max,Labour @ 37% last time I looked.

Which might make an interesting coalition at roughly 50:50. Depends on actual MP numbers though

It would but I haven't seen any such possibility suggested in any polls. Farage on Today this a.m. made no claim to winning seats, but did state his ambition/target to be PM after the next GE. He did not say which Party he would then be representing. All he needs for this to be a distinct possibility is to win Clacton and then join the Tories and be "elected" leader.
And of course he is a democrat, hence his support for Trump!

[Jdsk]

If Farage gets elected what does it say about the voters of Clacton?

Demographics of the revised constituency:
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcg ... at=Clacton
which will probably surprise nobodey.

Do you think he will though?

Yes. 72% chance in the linked analysis.

Jonathan

[reohn2]

If Farage gets elected what does it say about the voters of Clacton?

Demographics of the revised constituency:
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcg ... at=Clacton
which will probably surprise nobodey.

Do you think he will though?

Yes. 72% chance in the linked analysis.

Jonathan

Interesting,if he does win at his eighth attempt the brown stuff will hit the fan....

[Jdsk]

The polls,the only thing we have to go off,are putting Reform and Tories at about 18% each max,Labour @ 37% last time I looked.

Which might make an interesting coalition at roughly 50:50. Depends on actual MP numbers though

I think that it's just one poll so far with those sort of numbers.

A shift of that sort increases the chance of a solid Labour majority in the Commons.

What would happen between the parties outside Parliament I have no idea. There hasn't been much discussion of where Conservatives who want nothing to do with Reform would go...

Jonathan

[djnotts]

^ White, pro-Brexit and old. Yup, that'll do it. Well chosen target.

[Jdsk]

If Farage gets elected what does it say about the voters of Clacton?

Demographics of the revised constituency:
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcg ... at=Clacton
which will probably surprise nobodey.

Do you think he will though?

Yes. 72% chance in the linked analysis.

Interesting,if he does win at his eighth attempt the brown stuff will hit the fan....

I don't expect him to take much part in Parliament. And he manages to get a lot of publicity as it is, so probably not much change there.

Jonathan