UK Politics

[djnotts]

Tactical voting calculator:
https://www.getvoting.org/tactical-voting/

Jonathan

Thanks. Confirms my own thinking re my constituency. Starmer it is....

[reohn2]

If Farage gets elected what does it say about the voters of Clacton?

Do you think he will though?

Yes.

Thanks

[Nearholmer]

Yet they (Labour and Conservative) leap at every opportunity to deny thet'll do it. Why? Madness.

The only way to achieve greater fairness with no overall change in tax take is to rob Peter in order to pay Paula, and Peter will have a massive tantrum, which will be blasted all over the front pages of the ‘papers in hyperbolic language, illustrated with photos of Peter in his wheelchair, wearing his ten military medals, and surrounded by the forty-two injured kittens that he has rescued from certain death this week, and his dear old mum who happens to live with him after retiring from a century of tireless service to the NHS, despite her wooden leg.

Paula meanwhile, will be discovered to own a BMW, a villa on the Costa del Tasteless, and a massage parlour that everyone locally reckons is a bit dodgy, and have a black Roumanian live-in lover, whose immigration status is under investigation.

Cue endless appeals, chaired by an out of touch with reality judge who goes on to give deeply unhelpful interviews to the press after taking early retirement in the middle of the process.

Endless hassle and bad publicity, that’s why.

[Jdsk]

Which raises another question. Are Reform far right? As I said, they attract some folk who have bigoted views, but are Reform's stated policies actually far right? I'm not sure about that. The main parties are all promising some restraint of net migration, as most UK Governments have in the past, and I include Labour in that. That alone doesn't make a party far right. Okay, Reform want zero net migration straight away, which I think impractical, but is that difference enough to label them far right? What exactly does "far right" mean? I think we have to be able to make the racism tag stick to be able to use the term. I'm not seeing much if any racism in stated policies, but I occasionally hear Farage say something that sounds more than suspect. Enough to make me think that a few squeaky clean policies on some glossy paper can't hide an unpleasant undercurrent.

I think that it's essential to separate that into two families of questions, just as you identify:

Are what we know of the policies right-wing: I will get to that, but the short answer is that they're very nationalist.

Are the leaders, the candidates and the supporters right-wing? And or racist? That's easy because we have such good access to what they have said.
...

Interview with Farage after some investigations of candidates:
https://x.com/GMB/status/1802972521257423042

I'm expecting more revelations along the same lines.

Jonathan

[Psamathe]

I wonder how much of the Conservative poor polling is down to Johnson or Truss or Sunak or just that cost of living/NHS/etc. that the Conservatives have all failed to even try and address instead focussing on boats, NI tax cuts, etc. things that nobody was crying out for.

And then there is the issue as to the polls being right. I'm sure they are properly reporting and analysing what people are telling them, just are people being honest and/or swing mostly undecided giving a categoric answer rather than a don't know.

Ian

[Jdsk]

...
And then there is the issue as to the polls being right. I'm sure they are properly reporting and analysing what people are telling them, just are people being honest and/or swing mostly undecided giving a categoric answer rather than a don't know.
...

Apart from "honesty" of respondents there are differences in how different pollsters handle "don't knows":
https://news.sky.com/story/general-elec ... s-13145117

And then there's turnout...

Jonathan

[Jdsk]

I wonder how much of the Conservative poor polling is down to Johnson or Truss or Sunak or just that cost of living/NHS/etc. that the Conservatives have all failed to even try and address instead focussing on boats, NI tax cuts, etc. things that nobody was crying out for.
...

We know a couple of things that might inform that: which issues are considered important (as upthread) and how voting intentions have changed since votes in previous elections and in one referendum.

Jonathan

[simonineaston]

As time drifts gently by, we learn that many - most? - of us have decided how to vote waaaay before we think about the issues we see paraded before us. I wouldn't mind betting that the proportion of the electorate that actually read the manifestos of their favourite party is depressingly small.
As for the proportion of those who in the interests of thoroughness, read that of their fave as well as the others with a realistic chance of winning in their constituency, well I wouldn't mind betting its less than 5%...

[Psamathe]

... I wouldn't mind betting that the proportion of the electorate that actually read the manifestos of their favourite party is depressingly small....

Though how much of that is because history has taught us that politicians don't seem to stand by their manifesto commitments.

eg Conservative voters have been looking forward to the scrapping of inheritance tax for many elections and yet when it came to cutting taxes the same Conservatives cut National Insurance.

eg for multiple elections the Conservatives have been promising to get net immigration down to the tens of thousands yet the moment the same party actually "got control of our borders" they allow record numbers.

Personally I'm glad the Conservatives never kept those manifesto pledges but it does illustrate that manifesto pledges are pretty meaningless the day after the election result is announced.

And does anybody really believe Labour will get the growth it needs and fast enough to not have to put up taxes as per their manifesto drafted by Hans Christian Andersen.

Farage even pretty much said their manifesto (in all but name) wasn't realistic because they'd never get elected anyway (implication to me being "lets give everybody a good laugh").

Ian

[Mike Sales]

Farage even pretty much said their manifesto (in all but name) wasn't realistic because they'd never get elected anyway (implication to me being "lets give everybody a good laugh").

Ian

The Marx Brothers had a short way with contracts and escape clauses.

Driftwood : It's all right, that's in every contract. That's what they call a sanity clause. Fiorello : You can't fool me! There ain't no Sanity Claus!

[reohn2]

Just one of the many things the Tories have achieved(20second video):- https://youtube.com/shorts/9B6pjN4jcLY? ... jVwKHfJw3E

[djnotts]

One big social ill that none have any hope of solving is housing. For example:

"According to the most recent housing affordability data, external, the average cost of a home in St Albans is £640,000. That is nearly 18 times the £36,353 average earnings people here make." (BBC News)

I know medians would be more telling than averages, but even so...

Typical min wage retail e.g. jobs show an even more ridiculous disparity, with house prices c.35 times earnings.

The touted planning rules changes need to include "tent cities".

[Psamathe]

On radio this morning poor Ms Reeves didn't manage well when quizzed about how they are going to pay bills in the short term. Best she could manage was "We're going to boost growth" but when interviewer push about how that takes time (it it works atall) and they'll have increased spending very soon which needs to be paid for, she really didn't have an answer and it was very obvious she didn't have an answer.

The More of Less looking at Labour's mad twaddle about what the Conservatives will be adding to your mortgage. even more ludicrous numbers than the conservative £200 claim. More or Less totally pulls Labour's claim appart.

Labour coming across increasingly badly. The Emperor has no clothes.

Ian

[Jdsk]

Cycling UK's manifesto for the general election:
https://www.cyclinguk.org/general-elect ... AhRFsdFzkE

"Will your candidates support healthy and sustainable transport choices?":
https://action.cyclinguk.org/page/15075 ... cale=en-GB

Jonathan

[Jdsk]

Cycling UK's manifesto for the general election:
https://www.cyclinguk.org/general-elect ... AhRFsdFzkE

"Will your candidates support healthy and sustainable transport choices?":
https://action.cyclinguk.org/page/15075 ... cale=en-GB

"Comparison of party manifesto pledges for cycling":
https://www.cyclinguk.org/general-elect ... to-pledges

Jonathan