Why? Every cloud has a silver lining. The Trump cloud is a particularly dark and menacing one, but we can take some consolation from this one factor. His inclination to rash moves may make participants in the region sit up and reconsider.
Because it (1) flies entirely against the facts and (2) believes the whole "Big Man" myth.
It's quite a analogue with why people voted for him, I think. The truth doesn't matter and people like to have the bully on their side.
And yet a majority of voters chose him - in the full knowledge of what he is and isn't - say what one likes, he don't hide it!
We have to deal with the new reality that's orange.
As you, dear reader, may recall I loves a chart. I wonder if looking back we will be able to see the impact of Trump's presidency on a chart of say the time we've got left, or the rise in storm frequency, or the number of cows made into burgers... will we, one way or another, notice him?
S
(on the look out for Armageddon, on board a Brompton nano & ever-changing Moultons)
Because it (1) flies entirely against the facts and (2) believes the whole "Big Man" myth.
It's quite a analogue with why people voted for him, I think. The truth doesn't matter and people like to have the built on their side.
Let's be clear. I feel sick that we have Trump back, and I'd much prefer that we had an adult in the White House.
But looking for whatever positives there might be, at least we may see Iran being a bit more careful, unsure of how the new US administration might respond to any move. It is a bit like the "respect" one gives to a potentially violent drunk on the street late at night.
I have a longer list of reasons to be concerned about Trump.
Trump, and the wider republican party, have been enthusiastic supporters of the war on Gaza. Prosecuting what is legitimately already regarded as a war crime by the ICC is not going to bring peace.
Unpredictability is not going to bring peace.
A long term engagement with all protagonists, maybe, think northern Ireland.
Trump is the absolute antithesis of a peacemaker. Believing otherwise is flying in the face of history and reality.
Imo
The two big wars of the moment started with Biden in the White House.
I predict that Trump will broker a bad deal for Ukraine, but at least it may bring a peace of sorts.
With Israel, who knows? Biden has been almost useless there. If I had to predict, I'd say that conflict will grind to a halt when the participants decide, and that won't be soon. But having a nutter in the White House might focus minds.
pwa wrote: ↑9 Nov 2024, 9:15am
Let's be clear. I feel sick that we have Trump back, and I'd much prefer that we had an adult in the White House.
But looking for whatever positives there might be, at least we may see Iran being a bit more careful, unsure of how the new US administration might respond to any move. It is a bit like the "respect" one gives to a potentially violent drunk on the street late at night.
I have a longer list of reasons to be concerned about Trump.
Trump, and the wider republican party, have been enthusiastic supporters of the war on Gaza. Prosecuting what is legitimately already regarded as a war crime by the ICC is not going to bring peace.
Unpredictability is not going to bring peace.
A long term engagement with all protagonists, maybe, think northern Ireland.
Trump is the absolute antithesis of a peacemaker. Believing otherwise is flying in the face of history and reality.
Imo
The two big wars of the moment started with Biden in the White House.
I predict that Trump will broker a bad deal for Ukraine, but at least it may bring a peace of sorts.
With Israel, who knows? Biden has been almost useless there. If I had to predict, I'd say that conflict will grind to a halt when the participants decide, and that won't be soon. But having a nutter in the White House might focus minds.
Trump, and the wider republican party, have been enthusiastic supporters of the war on Gaza. Prosecuting what is legitimately already regarded as a war crime by the ICC is not going to bring peace.
Unpredictability is not going to bring peace.
A long term engagement with all protagonists, maybe, think northern Ireland.
Trump is the absolute antithesis of a peacemaker. Believing otherwise is flying in the face of history and reality.
Imo
The two big wars of the moment started with Biden in the White House.
I predict that Trump will broker a bad deal for Ukraine, but at least it may bring a peace of sorts.
With Israel, who knows? Biden has been almost useless there. If I had to predict, I'd say that conflict will grind to a halt when the participants decide, and that won't be soon. But having a nutter in the White House might focus minds.
Again, this nicely shows how he won.
Ignore the facts, and trust the big man.
I don't think my comments suggest that I trust him. If I had been a US voter I'd have voted Harris. I would have even preferred the totally dreadful Biden. Trump is a disaster.
"Metaphorically, I mean, why do that if you don't really want Adam and Eve to eat the apple, eh? I mean, maybe you just want to see how it all turns out. Maybe it's all part of a great big ineffable plan. All of it You, me, him, everything. Some great big test to see if it works properly? You start thinking it can't be a great cosmic game of chess, it has to be a very complicated solitaire. And don't bother to answer. If we could understand, we wouldn't be us... because its all ineffable"
Good Omens,
Terry Pratchett & Neil Gaiman
The Beeb have been reporting that a Trump adviser has been saying that it is time for Ukraine to accept territorial loss as part of a peace settlement with Russia.
This is exactly how I expect Trump to go with that war. Seek a rapid conclusion by getting Ukraine to cut her losses. Next comes pressure on the UK and other allies of Ukraine to support this new position.
^pwa: "This is exactly how I expect Trump to go with that war. Seek a rapid conclusion by getting Ukraine to cut her losses. Next comes pressure on the UK and other allies of Ukraine to support this new position."
This. The pressure could be pretty indirect. US largest backer of Ukraine, if that stops could next big backers, Germany and UK, fill the gap? I doubt it. Could be some big savings for UK treasury here!
djnotts wrote: ↑10 Nov 2024, 9:15am
^pwa: "This is exactly how I expect Trump to go with that war. Seek a rapid conclusion by getting Ukraine to cut her losses. Next comes pressure on the UK and other allies of Ukraine to support this new position."
This. The pressure could be pretty indirect. US largest backer of Ukraine, if that stops could next big backers, Germany and UK, fill the gap? I doubt it. Could be some big savings for UK treasury here!
Big savings more than counterbalanced by the cost of reconstruction, I'm guessing.
^"Big savings more than counterbalanced by the cost of reconstruction, I'm guessing."
Maybe but reconstruction £s can be spread over much longer and more easily fudged than bullets today. Once Ukraine in effect abandoned reconstruction not really worth the financial effort.
I suspect that we'll forget that need to increase arms expenditure in readiness for Putin's response to any NATO roll-back by Trump.
pwa wrote: ↑10 Nov 2024, 4:53am
The Beeb have been reporting that a Trump adviser has been saying that it is time for Ukraine to accept territorial loss as part of a peace settlement with Russia.
The individual in question is now a former Trump adviser
pwa wrote: ↑10 Nov 2024, 4:53am
The Beeb have been reporting that a Trump adviser has been saying that it is time for Ukraine to accept territorial loss as part of a peace settlement with Russia.
This is exactly how I expect Trump to go with that war. Seek a rapid conclusion by getting Ukraine to cut her losses. Next comes pressure on the UK and other allies of Ukraine to support this new position.
Alt. "getting Ukraine to surrender to a fascist regime"
Listening to various commentaries, it would seem that most voting Americans agreed with Trump on the issues of inflation, immigration and the culture wars. Trump probably has two years in which to deliver on his agenda because of the mid-term elections. He'll probably do what he can to make petrol as cheap as possible. The world is doomed with regards to the climate crisis.
UpWrong wrote: ↑10 Nov 2024, 9:49am
Listening to various commentaries, it would seem that most voting Americans agreed with Trump on the issues of inflation, immigration and the culture wars. Trump probably has two years in which to deliver on his agenda because of the mid-term elections. He'll probably do what he can to make petrol as cheap as possible. The world is doomed with regards to the climate crisis.
He will, may not help republicans much though. US might be a little different as they drive more but fuel inflation tends to go a little less noticed. Problem will be that in 2 years time people will still be paying at least $x for burger/eggs/whatever.
Food inflation is the political killer, nothing new there. Doesn't matter that the US has done one of the best jobs of any western nation in dealing with the post COVID & Ukraine invasion inflation spike. US citizens are generally actually better off over all income deciles as their wage growth has exceeded living cost increases but people don't perceive that in the same way. From a political perspective it's probably better to go for lower inflation and allow job losses instead when faced with such circumstances.
djnotts wrote: ↑10 Nov 2024, 9:15am
^pwa: "This is exactly how I expect Trump to go with that war. Seek a rapid conclusion by getting Ukraine to cut her losses. Next comes pressure on the UK and other allies of Ukraine to support this new position."
This. The pressure could be pretty indirect. US largest backer of Ukraine, if that stops could next big backers, Germany and UK, fill the gap? I doubt it. Could be some big savings for UK treasury here!
Big savings more than counterbalanced by the cost of reconstruction, I'm guessing.
Also a gamble that Russia's military capability is sufficiently spent that they're not going to go for the next bit within 4 years.
The contents of this post, unless otherwise stated, are opinions of the author and may actually be complete codswallop
