Syria

[pwa]

I know this is a hugely complex issue, but at the risk of putting it too simply, isn't it obvious that the West has an interest in encouraging the victorious rebel groups in Syria to seek to calm things down and establish a moderate government (by the standards of the region) so the they can receive Western assistance in rebuilding their country?

This makes sense to me for several reasons. Firstly, just a straightforward desire to see a peaceful Syria.

Secondly, to facilitate an end to that particular refugee crisis.

Thirdly, to introduce stability into the heart of an unstable region.

Fourthly, to diminish the roles of Russia and Iran in the region.

Fifthly, to cut Russia's supply line for it's mercenaries in Africa.

And probably other things I will think of later.

Syria is at a tipping point, and to stand by without trying to influence the way it goes would be negligent.

Any thoughts?

[mattheus]

Secondly, to facilitate an end to that particular refugee crisis.

There is evidence the crisis is already over!

https://www.gbnews.com/news/syria-refug ... all-rebels

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/12/ ... ssads-fall

[pwa]

Secondly, to facilitate an end to that particular refugee crisis.

There is evidence the crisis is already over!

https://www.gbnews.com/news/syria-refug ... all-rebels

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/12/ ... ssads-fall

I think it is early days yet. If I were on the move with my family to escape trouble in my homeland, I would need to see good evidence of improvement and stability before going back. But there are now reasons for hope. It depends on what sort of regime emerges now. Fingers crossed.

[peetee]

On the other hand, one has to ask how did the rebels gain the upper hand given the (historic) government was in possession of such heavy weaponry and had used it in anger against them? Perhaps Putin has switched to financing the rebels so that success resulted in a power vacuum, the result of which would potentially destabilise the Middle-East and divert western attention and resources away from Ukraine.

[PH]

On the other hand, one has to ask how did the rebels gain the upper hand given the (historic) government was in possession of such heavy weaponry and had used it in anger against them? Perhaps Putin has switched to financing the rebels so that success resulted in a power vacuum, the result of which would potentially destabilise the Middle-East and divert western attention and resources away from Ukraine.

it didn't need Russia to switch support, only for them to be unable to maintain it. Add to that, a weakened Hezbollah being otherwise occupied and a military that was demoralised and in many instances unpaid.
It's impossible not to see Assad being overthrown as a good thing, though it's not easy to imagine a positive outcome, who are the good guys? As for what we should do, pour humanitarian aid in, without influence or prejudice.

[pwa]

On the other hand, one has to ask how did the rebels gain the upper hand given the (historic) government was in possession of such heavy weaponry and had used it in anger against them? Perhaps Putin has switched to financing the rebels so that success resulted in a power vacuum, the result of which would potentially destabilise the Middle-East and divert western attention and resources away from Ukraine.

it didn't need Russia to switch support, only for them to be unable to maintain it. Add to that, a weakened Hezbollah being otherwise occupied and a military that was demoralised and in many instances unpaid.
It's impossible not to see Assad being overthrown as a good thing, though it's not easy to imagine a positive outcome, who are the good guys? As for what we should do, pour humanitarian aid in, without influence or prejudice.

As soon as we have reason to think the next regime is at least half way decent, we should pull out all the stops helping them to rebuild. Because it is a good thing to do and because it is in our own interest.

Syria is the centre of the region. Having a benign Syria would make stability elsewhere more likely.

[Pebble]

could we have a serious conflict of refugees - if all the Ba'athists sympathisers need to flee, and I can imaging that being quite likely - where would we home them, can't really house them alongside all the Syrians who had ran away from them over the last decade - or will they all just get along happily

[PH]

As soon as we have reason to think the next regime is at least half way decent, we should pull out all the stops helping them to rebuild. Because it is a good thing to do and because it is in our own interest.

I don't know how long that's going to be before we judge a regime to be half decent, that's why I asked who the good guys are. I don't think we can wait, they need help now and yes, that's in our interests. There's still factions, I don't think we should be taking sides, we did that 14 years ago and then walked away when the Russians chose the other side.

[pwa]

As soon as we have reason to think the next regime is at least half way decent, we should pull out all the stops helping them to rebuild. Because it is a good thing to do and because it is in our own interest.

I don't know how long that's going to be before we judge a regime to be half decent, that's why I asked who the good guys are. I don't think we can wait, they need help now and yes, that's in our interests. There's still factions, I don't think we should be taking sides, we did that 14 years ago and then walked away when the Russians chose the other side.

We cannot and should not wade in and try to force things, I agree. But we can and should incentivise things going the way we would like them to. With support, financial and otherwise. Right now the West ought to be putting out feelers and starting conversations.

So what should Western support depend on? Well, the new regime must be moderate, tolerant of religious diversity, and allow women certain freedoms. Basic minimums rather than the ideals we should demand in our own land. But we would also want the new Syria to block Iranian supplies for Hezbollah crossing their territory, and to be generally benign.

The problem is, of course, we are talking about a Syria of factions, not a united land. The position of Kurds and their dynamic with Turkey is one of the majority stumbling blocks. Ongoing and unhelpful aggression from Israel must be stopped too. That seems to me to be something that will push any new regime into the Iranian camp.

It is complex and fluid, but the West should at least have a go at offering support, with conditions, to try to nudge things in a good direction.

What we most need now is an energetic peacemaker and diplomat taking over the top job in the US....

[Tangled Metal]

Can I just point out some historical facts about Syria and Bashir al Assad that needs to be considered?

Assad was the younger brother of the dictator who was absolutely brutal in his gaining control of Syria in the long past and keeping control. AIUI he had two brothers of which Bashir Assad was the youngest. A quiet kid who went to the UK for his education as UK supported Syria back then. He effectively grew up in the UK, was educated over here and even worked as an eye doctor in south London IIRC when suddenly his older brother died leaving no heir to his father. His brother was a cruel and completely ruthless man by all accounts. Assad brother who has just fled to Russia never expected or wanted to become a dictator of Syria. He wanted to live and work in UK free of his familial business. When his Dad died after his older brother and heir to their Dad died he was recalled to take over. He was totally unprepared for his new role and to some extent had to grow into it. All experts I have read about think he was really the puppet of others who are still in Syria.

Now Assad is out and there is effectively a loose coalition of Islamists and muslims there is a push to gain control of the various important places. The lead group has brought up a lot of personnel from their centre of power to take over all important places in the capital. They are making the biggest push for most power in Syria, but have no doubt that all the other groups will be taking steps to get what they can in Syria.

I deliberately said there is a mix of islamists and muslims in this rebel coalition. The difference is islamists believe in strict religous law based on the exact reading of the Koran. Muslim groups believe that the religion is important but they support the creation of a more liberal state where all religions and communities are safe to exist and prosper. Whether Allawhite (sic), christians, sunni or shia Assad actually allowed all to exist freely within the construct of the dicatorship[ regime. The lead rebel group was allied to Al qaeda and were islamists. Their leader on the collapse of the umbrella al quaeda then pivoted towards more liberal thoughts than the old islamist. It is too early to say but there is a possibility they could turn Syria into a more western focussed, almost liberal middle eastern state by the standards in that area. Bear in mind at one point Taliban in Afghan were sounding to western negotiators that they were turning away from the strictest islamist ideals. They then got power and went right back to the harshest (for women) regime of old. This could be what the lead rebel group go so IMHO it is not right for the western governments to back from day one. Besides Turkey is the proxy to do that indirectly anyway.

It is all too early to know what is right to do, so IMHO Britain (who does still hold some influence there) should watch and wait. There is potential for good to come out of this but also a lot of bad. WIsh for the best but prepare for the worst. That is what the west is doing I reckon and quite right too.

[Jdsk]

Can I just point out some historical facts about Syria and Bashir al Assad that needs to be considered?
Assad was the younger brother of the dictator who was absolutely brutal in his gaining control of Syria in the long past and keeping control. AIUI he had two brothers of which Bashir Assad was the youngest.
...

Bashar al-Assad's predecessor as president was his father, Hafez al-Assad. The older brother, Bassel al-Assad, was never president or "dictator".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bashar_al-Assad
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hafez_al-Assad
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bassel_al-Assad

Jonathan