War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

[Nearholmer]

One thing to bear in mind when batting %GDP figures about is how large the GDP of the EU is: about ten times that of Russia, and heading towards that of the USA. I think that the EU and UK together already spend more on defence/military than does Russia.

So, if Western Europe could get its @rse into gear, it ought to be able to muster significant capability, although that would, of course, be from a low base position, whereas Russia has been militarising in a big way “forever”.

Personally, I see the prospect of a euro-army as positive (although I also wish we didn’t need one at all), because I’ve thought for a very long time that there should be one, with reducing dependence on the USA, so this might be a tiny, tiny silver lining on the cloud of exploitative nutters being in power in the USA.

[djnotts]

7% anyone?

"Thee Sunday Telegraph, external focuses on a warning to Reeves from the foreign secretary at the security conference. During a speech David Lammy hinted at Cold War levels of defence spending, which would be closer to 7% of GDP, if Russia was victorious in Ukraine." (BBC News)

[Carlton green]

One thing to bear in mind when batting %GDP figures about is how large the GDP of the EU is: about ten times that of Russia, and heading towards that of the USA.

In absolute terms (fiscal) GDP values are misleading. In Russia it costs relatively little to build weapons and to pay servicemen. Russia is large and doesn’t necessarily have to import anything from high cost countries so its external buying power isn’t crucial. In terms of weapons Russia has been enormously successful in the way in which they have undermined other states from within - it’s taken decades but open up your eyes and look at what a mess the Western World is in.

The Russian (leadership) mindset is different too. They are prepared to pay in suffering and deaths in a way in which Western countries are not.

[Nearholmer]

I get all of that, and I’m not saying that upping our game isn’t necessary, it absolutely is, more trying to point out that this %GFP measure needs to be seen in context of what the GDP is.

Would you like a big slice of cake, or a small slice? Ask first how big the cake is.

The point you make about undermining from within is probably the bit that worries me most. Russia and the MAGAts have jointly, and very deliberately, poisoned and undermined liberal democracy to a degree where a significant proportion of the European population, maybe 20%, is actively opposed to defending it, while being the very same people who wrap themselves in national flags and proclaim their patriotism. That makes it incredibly difficult for politicians to galvanise support for defending democracy.

[djnotts]

One thing to bear in mind when batting %GDP figures about is how large the GDP of the EU is: about ten times that of Russia, and heading towards that of the USA. I think that the EU and UK together already spend more on defence/military than does Russia.

So, if Western Europe could get its @rse into gear, it ought to be able to muster significant capability, although that would, of course, be from a low base position, whereas Russia has been militarising in a big way “forever”.

Personally, I see the prospect of a euro-army as positive (although I also wish we didn’t need one at all), because I’ve thought for a very long time that there should be one, with reducing dependence on the USA, so this might be a tiny, tiny silver lining on the cloud of exploitative nutters being in power in the USA.

^ Sane, sensible, measured....but national governments' reactions to "sharing" armed forces are often anything but.
The current context is also not conducive as ultra-right nationalism gains traction in many W European countries, including its 2 nuclear powers and 3 strongest countries. And 1 that is in both those categories has quit the EU!
It speaks volumes for how bad things could be that Nearholmer's welcome for a European Army is the best for which we can hope.
The big decision, though I suspect it'll be a drift presented as inevitable rather than a big-bang yes or no, will be absorption by USA or go down, in a lengthy phoney war, culminating in the real thing, with "Europe".
I'm currently again waiting on cancer test results - don't seem all that important right now!

[853]

I'm currently again waiting on cancer test results - don't seem all that important right now!

I sincerely hope that goes well for you

[djnotts]

^ Thank you.

[axel_knutt]

An interesting read in the FT:
https://archive.is/287LE
..or if you have a subscription:
https://www.ft.com/content/f268359a-734 ... 53f7d6a865

[djnotts]

An interesting read in the FT:
https://archive.is/287LE
......

"Interesting" is one descriptor......there are many others. "Frightening" for example. A convincing analysis. Thanks for the link.

[axel_knutt]

An interesting read in the FT:
https://archive.is/287LE
......

"Interesting" is one descriptor......there are many others. "Frightening" for example. A convincing analysis. Thanks for the link.

Annette Dittert who tweeted it described it as "depressing".

It see that Article 5 doesn't actually oblige anyone to do anything other than huff and blow, and puff out their chest indignantly. That was news to me.

Guy Verhofstadt's comment on it:

"In this new world, if you're not around the table, you're on the menu.

If China, Russia, US are allowed to decide Europe's future, our future won't be ours.

European leaders...lead!"

I must admit to a certain amount of impatience to see how this is all going to develop.

[wheelyhappy99]

^ NATO minus USA a different matter. Without current US support Ukraine will lose, unless the rest of NATO fills the gap. Once Ukraine loses, other border states will be taken. Once Poland falls all further bets are off.

The Ukraine was doomed to lose from the start. All our help has done is prolong the war.

I can understand how someone who swallowed all the cold war propogand can think like you. The USSR has gone so you need another bogey man to frightne the kids with. It ain't gonna happen though.

Maybe remember that Russia expected to be in Kyiv in three days. And still isn't. Our limited help didn't start arriving until after Ukrainians had pushed Russia back.

The USSR may have gone, but please ask yourself if it would be reasonable for the surviving residents of Bucha to be frightened for themselves and their kids if Russian troops were to return there. Then perhaps consider how many Ukrainian refugees will move west rather than remain under Russian occupation.

[roubaixtuesday]

7% anyone?

"Thee Sunday Telegraph, external focuses on a warning to Reeves from the foreign secretary at the security conference. During a speech David Lammy hinted at Cold War levels of defence spending, which would be closer to 7% of GDP, if Russia was victorious in Ukraine." (BBC News)

Yes. Cheaper to support Ukraine than betray them.

[roubaixtuesday]

I'm currently again waiting on cancer test results - don't seem all that important right now!

Very best wishes.

[roubaixtuesday]

One thing to bear in mind when batting %GDP figures about is how large the GDP of the EU is: about ten times that of Russia, and heading towards that of the USA.

In absolute terms (fiscal) GDP values are misleading. In Russia it costs relatively little to build weapons and to pay servicemen. Russia is large and doesn’t necessarily have to import anything from high cost countries so its external buying power isn’t crucial. In terms of weapons Russia has been enormously successful in the way in which they have undermined other states from within - it’s taken decades but open up your eyes and look at what a mess the Western World is in.

The Russian (leadership) mindset is different too. They are prepared to pay in suffering and deaths in a way in which Western countries are not.

This is very true.

You also have to factor in the cost of syphoning off sufficient to pay for the palaces of Putin and cronies grin the Russian defence budget though.

[Carlton green]

You also have to factor in the cost of syphoning off sufficient to pay for the palaces of Putin and cronies grin the Russian defence budget though.

You think people actually get paid? If they do it won’t be much but they might be granted some favour or allowed to live.

Putin mindset: Whether it’s true and possible or not I will tell the West that I have nuclear weapons and am prepared to use them.
The West’s mindset: We must not provoke Putin or he will let off a Nuclear Bomb in Ukraine which will kill some people and cause other damage.

The West’s mindset set: we are vastly superior to Putin in Nuclear strength but should never actually use the deterrent because it will kill some people and cause other damage.
Putin’s mindset: So what if a bomb lands here. My Russia is (geographically) massive, we’ve plenty of people and the people will do as I say. I know that the West haven’t the character to cope with a retaliatory Nuclear hit on their soil, their populations will rise up against their leaders and the civil disobedience will be massive.