BEVs

[roubaixtuesday]

It's just you exhort others to "facts" and post "likely".
"Likely" is not fact imv.

Well, there's no such thing as a fact about the future, hence "likely" rather than certain.

So you're disputing that China is likely near peak emissions?

Would be fascinating to hear your rationale for that, particularly given that the wiki page you're so keen posting and reposting on states. The long-term impact of China's energy transition policies is projected to drastically reduce coal.


Thank you for the figures on imports. The marginal cost must be set by global coal price.

[roubaixtuesday]

Thinking that There Is Only One Correct Understanding is a real mind-trap,

Absolutely. But nevertheless, what understanding we have is improved by understanding facts rather than wishful thinking.

Narrative, always but perhaps more than ever now, can trample facts in our heads, but not in reality.

We're doomed

All go unto one place; all are of the dust, and all turn to dust again

[PDQ Mobile]

It's just you exhort others to "facts" and post "likely".
"Likely" is not fact imv.

Well, there's no such thing as a fact about the future, hence "likely" rather than certain.

So you're disputing that China is likely near peak emissions?

Would be fascinating to hear your rationale for that, particularly given that the wiki page you're so keen posting and reposting on states. The long-term impact of China's energy transition policies is projected to drastically reduce coal.


Thank you for the figures on imports. The marginal cost must be set by global coal price.

I dunno what marginal means in this context?

Not disputing at all.
Their peak has not even been reached yet, though.
And their peak is BIG.
(I only re-referred you to the Wiki link because you seemed to ignore its "facts".)
It is 4.8 billion tons of domestic production.
.......
So it seems clear to me that China has, and continues to use, vast quantities of mostly it's OWN cheap and filthy coal to drive it's industrialisation and competitive edge.
That coal is often mined in dangerous mines with pretty scant regard for health and safety.

At the present time China continues to use ever more coal each successive year. Fact.

I accept that it has made some strides towards more sustainable energy.
Personally however, I doubt whether it can fuel itself so, even if it covers every last available inch in solar panels.

An industrial leviathan needs a lot of juice.
The massive hydro schemes are a help but have had a certain environmental cost too.

Nuclear will probably be the only way forward for them. (If climate change or international pressure can move such a monster?)
But other (toxic) arguments aside, the vast cost of nuclear will make them much less competitive- which is perhaps good for Europe.

One could argue that is what already happened here in Western Europe!
(This guy thinks so,and he spent a lifetime reporting on environmental issues.)
https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... ve-learned


So I think the basic premise that China has used, and continues to use (still in increasing quantities) filthy cheap coal to maintain a competitive edge over more
(a) climate friendlier nations;
and
(b) over nations that offer workers some protection holds true.

[roubaixtuesday]

It's just you exhort others to "facts" and post "likely".
"Likely" is not fact imv.

Well, there's no such thing as a fact about the future, hence "likely" rather than certain.

So you're disputing that China is likely near peak emissions?

Would be fascinating to hear your rationale for that, particularly given that the wiki page you're so keen posting and reposting on states. The long-term impact of China's energy transition policies is projected to drastically reduce coal.


Thank you for the figures on imports. The marginal cost must be set by global coal price.

I dunno what marginal means in this context?

Not disputing at all.
Their peak has not even been reached yet, though.
And their peak is BIG.
(I only re-referred you to the Wiki link because you seemed to ignore its "facts".)
It is 4.8 billion tons of domestic production.
.......
So it seems clear to me that China has, and continues to use, vast quantities of mostly it's OWN cheap and filthy coal to drive it's industrialisation and competitive edge.
That coal is often mined in dangerous mines with pretty scant regard for health and safety.

At the present time China continues to use ever more coal each successive year. Fact.

I accept that it has made some strides towards more sustainable energy.
Personally however, I doubt whether it can fuel itself so, even if it covers every last available inch in solar panels.

An industrial leviathan needs a lot of juice.
The massive hydro schemes are a help but have had a certain environmental cost too.

Nuclear will probably be the only way forward for them. (If climate change or international pressure can move such a monster?)
But other (toxic) arguments aside, the vast cost of nuclear will make them much less competitive- which is perhaps good for Europe.

One could argue that is what already happened here in Western Europe!
(This guy thinks so,and he spent a lifetime reporting on environmental issues.)
https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... ve-learned


So I think the basic premise that China has used, and continues to use (still in increasing quantities) filthy cheap coal to maintain a competitive edge over more
(a) climate friendlier nations;
and
(b) over nations that offer workers some protection holds true.

I don't agree that coal gives China a decisive competent advantage.

I do agree that workers rights (and various other human rights and foreign policy abuses) are extremely concerning.

On energy policy, your post is rich on rhetoric but literally does not contain a single number!

Quantifying what you think helps enormously.

Here, again, are quantified trends in the power sources you quote for China (to 2024)

You can see very clearly that, as a proportion of the total, wind and solar are increasing rapidly, nuclear is increasing slowly, hydro is close to static and coal is falling.

The absolute figures follow the proportions.

Very latest data shows that (wind+solar) has already outpaced all other clean energy combined (nuclear + hydro + biomass) and continues to grow far more rapidly. It's already about a third of fossil fuel generation.

(Can't get this graph to show, will post next instead)

So I think your rhetoric on nuclear being "the only way forward" is very clearly already false. Data on energy is readily available, I commend it to you.

[roubaixtuesday]

The other graph. Data from https://ember-energy.org/

[Carlton green]

I would note that some of the graphs above have no time data (figures) on them, and I’m horrified by the very large (dominating) percentage of electricity generated in China by coal. To my mind China could have much more renewable generation and I’m shocked that it doesn’t. About 60% of their generation is now coal powered and their coal powered generation increased by roughly six times over the graph’s time scale. That’s shocking, well it is to me.

This Wikipedia article is dated but gives a feel for China’s fuel supplies. I note that it imported oil from Russia and believe that it still does, that oil fuels the Russian war machine and supports the invasion of Ukraine. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_security_of_China

[roubaixtuesday]

I would note that some of the graphs above have no time data (figures) on them, and I’m horrified by the very large (dominating) percentage of electricity generated in China by coal. To my mind China could have much more renewable generation and I’m shocked that it doesn’t. About 60% of their generation is now coal powered and their coal powered generation increased by roughly six times over the graph’s time scale. That’s shocking, well it is to me.

This Wikipedia article is dated but gives a feel for China’s fuel supplies. I note that it imported oil from Russia and believe that it still does, that oil fuels the Russian war machine and supports the invasion of Ukraine. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_security_of_China

Source and graphs with timescale

https://ember-energy.org/countries-and-regions/china/

[Carlton green]

Thank you for correcting the data.

I might be misreading matters but am inclined to think that China’s industrial production and rise is linked (by its consumption) to coal powered electricity generation.

UK energy production is about 30% fossil fuels - none of which is coal - and our CO2 emissions have - in contrast to China’s - gone down by 44% since 2000.

https://www.iea.org/countries/united-kingdom
(select the electricity tab)

China seems set on even higher levels of CO2 pollution.

In 2023, China accounted for 95% of the world’s new coal construction.

Meanwhile, retirement and mothballing of old coal plants remains “low”, the report says. This is particularly pronounced in recent years, with the amount of capacity being closed down each year dropping sharply from around 13GW in 2020 to 2.5GW in 2024.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/chinas-cons ... h-in-2024/

[roubaixtuesday]

China seems set on even higher levels of CO2 pollution.

Carbon Brief is a very good source.

They do a regular China specific newsletter

https://www.carbonbrief.org/china-briefing/

It seems that, as you'd expect, there's lots of turmoil as renewables overtake coal. Just as in the US, vested interests are trying to protect the status quo.

Regardless, the direction of travel seems very clear. From the latest newsletter:

According to energy news outlet BJX News, from January to October 2025, China added 253GW of solar, 70GW of wind and 65GW of thermal power, mostly coal.

[roubaixtuesday]

And, vaguely trying to stay on BEV topic, again from Carbon Brief, firstly showing emissions are now flat in China on an 18 month timescale.

And their comment that BEVs are a key driver of this: The rapid adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) saw CO2 emissions from transport fuel drop by 5% year-on-year


https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-ch ... 18-months/

[Bonefishblues]

I think it's the pace of change that the Chinese can and do drive that's most remarkable.

[al_yrpal]

We are all to blame... Everything's made in China so the answer is cut personal consumption ie dont buy a Chinese EV, buy a good quality economical used banger instead. Fill your home with nice s/h stuff. Recycle, and reuse where possible.

Al

[PDQ Mobile]

The graphs show that coal consumption in China continues to increase steadily- the line is straight and shows little change.

Their energy demands do increase and they do cover some of that with renewables.

Nuclear is low carbon but not "clean".

Co2 emissions in China have levelled.
But they also levelled in the Covid pandemic and rose again steeply as that ended.
A continued steady upward trend.
There is something of a global recession at the moment- the flattening curve is probably more to do with that.
Rather than a move to leccy vehicles, when, after all, those vehicles are fuelled by 60% coal!!!
And massive Lithium extraction.
..........
I think it a clear and inescapable fact that China's cheap and filthy coal has been a major factor in their industrial expansion over the last 30 odd years- at a time when other older industrial nations were trying to invest heavily in cleaner energy.

Must get on now.
Need to get some carbon neutral fuel!

[roubaixtuesday]

We are all to blame... Everything's made in China so the answer is cut personal consumption ie dont buy a Chinese EV, buy a good quality economical used banger instead. Fill your home with nice s/h stuff. Recycle, and reuse where possible.

Al

I agree with the principle of recycle and reuse, and personally I loathe shopping anyway, so it's not an issue.

But on BEVs I think this is mistaken.

Last time I looked the payback in terms of emissions is very small, like two years, compared a new BEV to a new ICE.

And even to scrap a used car and buy a BEV, the emissions payback is only 4 years.

(I'll try and find a reference later)

Cars emit huge quantities of CO2. Replacing them with BEVs, regardless of source of the BEV, is a CO2 win.

[roubaixtuesday]

There is something of a global recession at the moment- the flattening curve is probably more to do with that.

Again, data is readily available.

China GDP shows no recession, growth is above 3%.

https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/c ... gdp-growth

What is uncontrovertible is that renewables have grown over the period in a way they have not historically - see earlier references.

There's no data to support your speculation. The data supports that a rapid uptake of wind and solar in recent years has enabled energy expansion to decouple from fossil fuel use rise.