Hung Parliament means Hung Parliament - the Hung Parliament thread

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Vorpal
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Re: Hung Parliament means Hung Parliament - the Hung Parliament thread

Post by Vorpal »

blackbike wrote:All democracies essentially have the same approach to calling elections.

The elected representatives make laws about it and everyone obeys them.

That's true, but it's often very difficult, purposely so, to change a constitution. Most countries have a special procedure requiring a significant majority of the legislature(s) and/or a referendum to make constituional changes.

In the USA for example, the terms of congress and the president are established by the constitution. To change this system would require a two-thirds majority of members of congress (assuming a quorum) OR a two-thirds majority of a constitutional convention, AND three-fourths of US states ratifying it. A number of constitutional amendments have failed because the states never ratified them.

I don't necessarily think that it is a bad thing to allow snap elections. It is merely a different means of doing things. Frequent snap elections are expensive and can lead to instability, but fixed terms can allow campaigning to go on excessively.

I was merely pointing out that legislative attempts to limit snap elections require stronger terms than those established in the UK. Attempts to limit snap elections in Westminster style governments often fail because they are basically attempts by parliament to limit the power of the prime minister. In Canada a provision to limit snap elections ended up in the supreme court, which determined that calling a snap election was within the power of the prime minister.
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Re: Hung Parliament means Hung Parliament - the Hung Parliament thread

Post by Vorpal »

pwa wrote:
thirdcrank wrote:In any system of representative democracy, there will be a tendency for the representatives to group into factions to try to get the best out of the inevitable compromises. When those factions develop into formal parties, they may be large, each taking in various factions or small, single issue groupings. The wheeler-dealing may go on within the parties or between them.

IMO the real issue is whether the system reflects the rather vague "will of the people." PR must ensure that every vote counts towards that, rather than our system where most votes count for nothing, except material for pundits to analyse.


I think FPTP brings distortion at the constituency, for the reason you state. I think PR brings distortion later on, when the parties start looking at how they can combine to rule. Both systems end up with some voters having more influence on policy than others. If you want to see how government will look with PR, watch how the DUP and the Tories do things over the next few months.

Can you provide some examples of that from European democracies? I have often heard people say that, even in Norway, which has PR, but I have seen little evidence of that. What I see instead is that all must compromise. One party supports another on one issue, in exchange for another. Or they compromise on both issues to get something that they think will be an improvement over what was before. Or they work together on a number of issues, and compromise on others....

IMO, the biggest disadvantage of PR is that on controversial issues, it can take a long time to hash out all the details when there are 15 different opinions, rather than 2 or 3.
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Re: Hung Parliament means Hung Parliament - the Hung Parliament thread

Post by PDQ Mobile »

IMHO, PR, which I am in favour of, requires a more sophisticated approach by the politicians than they seem capable of at the moment.
Or at any time in my long life!!

((EU is positively refreshing comparatively in that regard.
A group of culturally and economically diverse nations sitting in a common parliament for mutual benefit.))

I don't think the DUP, in some sort of coalition with the present Govt. is the same as PR as was stated up-thread. It's just deal making in a FPTP system.
One small party holding another to ransom.

True PR requires consensus from all the parties to be prepared to compromise.
It is a very important difference and a better democracy.
That consensus, broadly speaking, should lead to benefit for all of the people of a given country.
Why should it not?

It means more people feel more represented and involved and they take more interest in decisions which affect them.

Small parties gain more influence but I see that as a good thing in the modern political climate.
Small parties would be encouraged into existence by PR, also a positive IMV.
(It couldn't be worse than the simple dominance we see at the moment)
Additionally it may well be that the more extreme types of party are more effectively neutralized by PR by the simple logic that they are least likely to compromise?
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Re: Hung Parliament means Hung Parliament - the Hung Parliament thread

Post by pwa »

Vorpal wrote:
pwa wrote:
thirdcrank wrote:In any system of representative democracy, there will be a tendency for the representatives to group into factions to try to get the best out of the inevitable compromises. When those factions develop into formal parties, they may be large, each taking in various factions or small, single issue groupings. The wheeler-dealing may go on within the parties or between them.

IMO the real issue is whether the system reflects the rather vague "will of the people." PR must ensure that every vote counts towards that, rather than our system where most votes count for nothing, except material for pundits to analyse.


I think FPTP brings distortion at the constituency, for the reason you state. I think PR brings distortion later on, when the parties start looking at how they can combine to rule. Both systems end up with some voters having more influence on policy than others. If you want to see how government will look with PR, watch how the DUP and the Tories do things over the next few months.

Can you provide some examples of that from European democracies? I have often heard people say that, even in Norway, which has PR, but I have seen little evidence of that. What I see instead is that all must compromise. One party supports another on one issue, in exchange for another. Or they compromise on both issues to get something that they think will be an improvement over what was before. Or they work together on a number of issues, and compromise on others....

IMO, the biggest disadvantage of PR is that on controversial issues, it can a long time to hash out all the details when there are 15 different opinions, rather than 2 or 3.


My knowledge of European democracies is limited, so I'll stay away from that rather than making a mistake. My only real observation is that the deal between the DUP and the Tories is the kind of arrangement that would always be needed with PR, and it does give the smaller party more leverage (per voter). If you think it is a good thing, fine. I see problems with PR and FPTP.

Last Saturday my local MP, the Secretary of State for Wales, was strolling around the village fete on the rugby ground in front of my house. If I had wanted to have a chat about something I could have done. My MP. But with PR that doesn't happen. Neil Hamilton is a UKIP AM in the Welsh parliament because he was on his party's list. I doubt very much that Welsh UKIP supporters like him. But they like UKIP and he was on their list. When I vote I do like voting for a name, a person.
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Re: Hung Parliament means Hung Parliament - the Hung Parliament thread

Post by Vorpal »

pwa wrote:My knowledge of European democracies is limited, so I'll stay away from that rather than making a mistake. My only real observation is that the deal between the DUP and the Tories is the kind of arrangement that would always be needed with PR, and it does give the smaller party more leverage (per voter). If you think it is a good thing, fine. I see problems with PR and FPTP.

Last Saturday my local MP, the Secretary of State for Wales, was strolling around the village fete on the rugby ground in front of my house. If I had wanted to have a chat about something I could have done. My MP. But with PR that doesn't happen. Neil Hamilton is a UKIP AM in the Welsh parliament because he was on his party's list. I doubt very much that Welsh UKIP supporters like him. But they like UKIP and he was on their list. When I vote I do like voting for a name, a person.

I think that if you are going to make statements like
pwa wrote: I think PR brings distortion later on, when the parties start looking at how they can combine to rule. Both systems end up with some voters having more influence on policy than others. If you want to see how government will look with PR, watch how the DUP and the Tories do things over the next few months.

It is reasonable to ask for examples. Otherwise, how can we understnad what you mean by this. DUP supporting a Tory example is not an example of this becuase the need of the Tories for the support of a single party gives them an unusual amount of political leverage.

What actually happens in a PR government is that one party wants to introduce new legislation from their platform or from one representative's initiative, and they talk to closely aligned parties about the feasibility. If it looks like they might get enough support, they talk to other parties. One party can't hold them hostage because if one party has excessive demands for their support, another might have more reasonable demands. Or the initiating party might let it lie for a while until someone else wants support for a pet project to go forward. Then they can say, we'll support you if...

Extreme measures are very unlikely to be mooted because they simply won't garner any support.

Once in a while, a single controversial issue drives the creation of a new party, ala UKIP. While it is clear that sort of thing can have an impact on PR, it has had a profound effect in the UK's two-party system. I suspect that UKIP's impact would have been somewhat smaller in a multi-party system. There would likely have been other, more moderate parties that supported independence, and less need for UKIP to exist.

That's not say Brexit could not have occurred. We can never know that answer to that.

As for voting for a person, that is still possible. It depends greatly on the system. In Sweden and Norway, people can vote for a person, as well as the party. They select the party by ballet paper, then if they wish (it is not required), they select the name of the person they wish to represent them. They can also write in a name on a blank ballot paper. The person or people with the most votes are then elected as representatives.

Other systems have one part of the legislature elected by PR (i.e. from a pool of representatives), and another part elected by direct election.

Yet other systems, use something like the alternative vote to combine direct representation with PR. I don't know so much about that type of system. I am only familiar with what was proposed in referendum in the UK in 2011.
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Re: Hung Parliament means Hung Parliament - the Hung Parliament thread

Post by blackbike »

thirdcrank wrote:Most modern democracies have some sort of constitution which has been written in an attempt to protect the system from abuses by the legislature. Some seem to work better than others. France is on its fifth since the Revolution.

We just make it up as we go along. Things have never been the same at the BBC without Norman St John Stevas to pontificate on constitutional niceties.


All countries just make things up as they go along whether they have a constitution or not.

The USA has one, and it is amended as they see fit, and they even amend amendments as demonstrated by Prohibition which was enacted via an amendment and ended by another one.

Our system for deciding on election timing is as good as any, though there will always be those people who are determined to believe that foreigners always do things better as this approach gives them the most opportunities to moan and groan about how awful things are here.
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Re: Hung Parliament means Hung Parliament - the Hung Parliament thread

Post by thirdcrank »

For my own part I try give a balanced analysis.
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Re: Hung Parliament means Hung Parliament - the Hung Parliament thread

Post by [XAP]Bob »

thirdcrank wrote:For my own part I try give a balanced analysis.


One of the advantages of always being right is that I don't need to try to be balanced....

:lol: maybe that's why I fell off over the w/end...
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Re: Hung Parliament means Hung Parliament - the Hung Parliament thread

Post by blackbike »

[XAP]Bob wrote:
thirdcrank wrote:For my own part I try give a balanced analysis.


One of the advantages of always being right is that I don't need to try to be balanced....



I'm so right about everything that my posts have to be pre-moderated so that my infallibility doesn't cause too much offence.
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Re: Hung Parliament means Hung Parliament - the Hung Parliament thread

Post by Psamathe »

pwa wrote:
thirdcrank wrote:In any system of representative democracy, there will be a tendency for the representatives to group into factions to try to get the best out of the inevitable compromises. When those factions develop into formal parties, they may be large, each taking in various factions or small, single issue groupings. The wheeler-dealing may go on within the parties or between them.

IMO the real issue is whether the system reflects the rather vague "will of the people." PR must ensure that every vote counts towards that, rather than our system where most votes count for nothing, except material for pundits to analyse.


I think FPTP brings distortion at the constituency, for the reason you state. I think PR brings distortion later on, when the parties start looking at how they can combine to rule. Both systems end up with some voters having more influence on policy than others. If you want to see how government will look with PR, watch how the DUP and the Tories do things over the next few months.

I think the recent Conservative/Lib Dem coalition worked well - at least better than I thought at the time. I base that on comparing that coalition with the subsequent same Conservatives with a majority. I now think the Lib Dems had a good moderating influence of the Conservatives and taxpayers didn't have to divert large amounts of cash to support the minority groups "special interests".

I think the DUP are not so much propping-up the Conservatives but more propping-up Mayhem. It's May who really needs support for some more extreme policies. Somebody else running things could act in a far more inclusive manner and would get through the big issues facing the UK far easier. It's because May wants to be in charge, to dictate what happens, etc. that she needs propping-up and it looks like she'll be spending tax-payers money to get that support.

When I say the Conservative/lib Dem coalition worked well - as a coalition it worked well compared to Conservatives un-restrained. It does not mean I like what they did, just saying that as a coalition it worked).

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Re: Hung Parliament means Hung Parliament - the Hung Parliament thread

Post by Ben@Forest »

blackbike wrote:Our system for deciding on election timing is as good as any, though there will always be those people who are determined to believe that foreigners always do things better as this approach gives them the most opportunities to moan and groan about how awful things are here.


In 2010/2011 it took Belgium 541 days to form a government. Of the 150 seats the two biggest parties got 27 and 26 apiece. The rest were shared between 10 other parties. Though various commentators in the UK (humorously?) opined that the lack of a government was not causing any harm I happen to know it postponed a big infrastructure project in a Brussels public park.

Also as far as I know the politicians got the their heads together and finally formed a government after one or two of the ratings agencies said they were about to downgrade Belgium's credit rating.
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Re: Hung Parliament means Hung Parliament - the Hung Parliament thread

Post by PH »

Psamathe wrote:I think the recent Conservative/Lib Dem coalition worked well -

Not for the Liberals obviously, 57 seats in 2010, 8 in 2015, 12 in 2017, it'll probably be another generation before they're back to pre coalition levels.
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Re: Hung Parliament means Hung Parliament - the Hung Parliament thread

Post by mjr »

pwa wrote:My knowledge of European democracies is limited, so I'll stay away from that rather than making a mistake. My only real observation is that the deal between the DUP and the Tories is the kind of arrangement that would always be needed with PR, and it does give the smaller party more leverage (per voter). If you think it is a good thing, fine. I see problems with PR and FPTP.

So, to summarise, insufficient knowledge of proportional representative democracies to comment on them, so all the criticism of how evil PR would be is based on a couple of rare examples of very lopsided coalitions from our current non-proportional Winner Takes All system... (Despite the name commonly used for it by the right-wing press, it's not First Past The Post: there is no fixed winning post to be first past.) Can you see that WTA coalitions (typically a biggest party + tiny one(s)) probably aren't good examples of PR coaliitions (typically a less-big biggest party and then a mix of others to reach a working majority)?

pwa wrote:Last Saturday my local MP, the Secretary of State for Wales, was strolling around the village fete on the rugby ground in front of my house. If I had wanted to have a chat about something I could have done. My MP. But with PR that doesn't happen. Neil Hamilton is a UKIP AM in the Welsh parliament because he was on his party's list. I doubt very much that Welsh UKIP supporters like him. But they like UKIP and he was on their list. When I vote I do like voting for a name, a person.

The Welsh Assembly is a brilliant example of how with PR that still can happen! Its elections are by a form of Additional Member System so you have a constituency AM as well as a number of regional list top-up AMs - your consitutency AM is probably Jane Hutt (Labour), if the lists I've used are current, but www.WriteToThem.com should confirm that from your postcode if you want.

Basically, under regional AMS, you're voting for both your named constituency candidate and probably the name on the top of the regional list as second-choice, so you should consider them both, because voting for an unsuccessful constituency candidate increases the chance of their linked regional candidate being elected and the inverse.
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Re: Hung Parliament means Hung Parliament - the Hung Parliament thread

Post by pwa »

mjr wrote:
pwa wrote:My knowledge of European democracies is limited, so I'll stay away from that rather than making a mistake. My only real observation is that the deal between the DUP and the Tories is the kind of arrangement that would always be needed with PR, and it does give the smaller party more leverage (per voter). If you think it is a good thing, fine. I see problems with PR and FPTP.

So, to summarise, insufficient knowledge of proportional representative democracies to comment on them, so all the criticism of how evil PR would be is based on a couple of rare examples of very lopsided coalitions from our current non-proportional Winner Takes All system... (Despite the name commonly used for it by the right-wing press, it's not First Past The Post: there is no fixed winning post to be first past.) Can you see that WTA coalitions (typically a biggest party + tiny one(s)) probably aren't good examples of PR coaliitions (typically a less-big biggest party and then a mix of others to reach a working majority)?

pwa wrote:Last Saturday my local MP, the Secretary of State for Wales, was strolling around the village fete on the rugby ground in front of my house. If I had wanted to have a chat about something I could have done. My MP. But with PR that doesn't happen. Neil Hamilton is a UKIP AM in the Welsh parliament because he was on his party's list. I doubt very much that Welsh UKIP supporters like him. But they like UKIP and he was on their list. When I vote I do like voting for a name, a person.

The Welsh Assembly is a brilliant example of how with PR that still can happen! Its elections are by a form of Additional Member System so you have a constituency AM as well as a number of regional list top-up AMs - your consitutency AM is probably Jane Hutt (Labour), if the lists I've used are current, but http://www.WriteToThem.com should confirm that from your postcode if you want.

Basically, under regional AMS, you're voting for both your named constituency candidate and probably the name on the top of the regional list as second-choice, so you should consider them both, because voting for an unsuccessful constituency candidate increases the chance of their linked regional candidate being elected and the inverse.


Most of what you say makes some sense, but I don't say PR would be "evil" or anything like, just problematic like other voting systems. In Wales we currently have a Labour regime backed up with probably the last Lib Dem in Wales, and there does seem to be stability of government for the moment. It works because the dominant party can always find another party with very similar left of centre views. It's not great if you don't like Labour, though. But that is just Wales.

Jane Hutt is our AM and she is actually a very nice, hard working person who takes a real interest. She was at the village fete too and was having a laugh with Cairns. UKIP in Wales are currently led by the very lovely Neil Hamilton, who would never have been elected for anything under his own banner. He got in because he was put on the UKIP list by UKIP central office and was not wanted by UKIP in Wales.
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Re: Hung Parliament means Hung Parliament - the Hung Parliament thread

Post by thirdcrank »

Whatever the features of different models of democracy, our current model has reduced the government to a crisis, apparently unable for the moment even to prepare a legislative programme - Queen's Speech - within days of the planned start of the negotiations to achieve a beneficial withdrawal from the EU. A result which few might have voted for had it been an option in the General Election.
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