On the cusp of cycling's greatest revolution

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horizon
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On the cusp of cycling's greatest revolution

Post by horizon »

Imagine a friend says to you that since he saw that two leaves had turned gold today, at that rate it will take another million years to see Autumn in all its glory. You wisely point out to him that they will all start turning gold and that Autumn will take just three or four weeks to manifest itself.

So it is with electric bikes. I speak to no-one about cycling who doesn't mention them. It is the greatest change in cycling since the invention of the safety bicycle. My prediction is that within five years, a non-powered bicycle will be as quaint as someone using a candle to light their way.

Something will be lost in this Gadarene rush to battery power but it won't be noticed.
When the pestilence strikes from the East, go far and breathe the cold air deeply. Ignore the sage, stay not indoors. Ho Ri Zon 12th Century Chinese philosopher
mercalia
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Re: On the cusp of cycling's greatest revolution

Post by mercalia »

horizon wrote:Imagine a friend says to you that since he saw that two leaves had turned gold today, at that rate it will take another million years to see Autumn in all its glory. You wisely point out to him that they will all start turning gold and that Autumn will take just three or four weeks to manifest itself.

So it is with electric bikes. I speak to no-one about cycling who doesn't mention them. It is the greatest change in cycling since the invention of the safety bicycle. My prediction is that within five years, a non-powered bicycle will be as quaint as someone using a candle to light their way.

Something will be lost in this Gadarene rush to battery power but it won't be noticed.


I cant see Lycra Lout riding one? Would attract too much ridiclule :lol: The only thing that might change might be for commuters, but leaving a bike costing £2000+ at the local railway stn or locked up some where in town hmm I wouldnt. In London all the bikes I see locked up are past their sell by date cast off bikes. Those who would buy 50cc mopeds might when emission laws kick in and stop the production of 2 stroke engines? But even the new T Zone in London excludes m/cs from their proscripton. So I think you are terribly wrong - Now if Halfords sell one for £200 ..... ( the batteries cost more than that :roll: )
bertgrower
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Re: On the cusp of cycling's greatest revolution

Post by bertgrower »

horizon wrote:Imagine a friend says to you that since he saw that two leaves had turned gold today, at that rate it will take another million years to see Autumn in all its glory. You wisely point out to him that they will all start turning gold and that Autumn will take just three or four weeks to manifest itself.

So it is with electric bikes. I speak to no-one about cycling who doesn't mention them. It is the greatest change in cycling since the invention of the safety bicycle. My prediction is that within five years, a non-powered bicycle will be as quaint as someone using a candle to light their way.

Something will be lost in this Gadarene rush to battery power but it won't be noticed.



I am remined when the newer versions of the Moulton became populer a keen Audax rider perdicd that were going to be the bike that eveybody would be riding 10 years.
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NUKe
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Re: On the cusp of cycling's greatest revolution

Post by NUKe »

They certainly have there place.As the average car journey is sub 5 miles.that would be the best part of the revolution,getting non cyclists out of their cars.
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softlips
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Re: On the cusp of cycling's greatest revolution

Post by softlips »

They have their place. The only place I see them being used is campsites by older campers.

I don't think regular riders will convert in big numbers as part of the reason we ride is to be fitter and most enjoy beating their previous times etc. I guess as we age we may try them in order to continue our hobby. I work in Copenhagen, Amsterdam and other big cycling cities and have yet to see an electric bike in any of them. The comments above re commuter bikes is true. The vast majority are bargain basement old bikes I presume so they don't attract thieves.

Now electric cars will become popular very soon.
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Si
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Re: On the cusp of cycling's greatest revolution

Post by Si »

I'm seeing more and more of them in Birmingham...I've even had to fix one for someone who works in the office.

At the moment a member of our team is looking into installing public use charge points in the city centre....apparently it's a 'mare as they all have different fittings.

I can imagine lots of people using them if they are affordable and reliable. They take away one of the two major problems for getting into the city - the fitness requirement to get in up the hills from my side (sure, most people can get fit enough to do it....but first you've got to convince them of that, and even when they can do it they arrive at the office needing to shower and change). Alas they do nothing to solve the other issue: the terror of traffic. That's where we need the proper high capacity, reasonably direct, segregated cycle routes.
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horizon
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Re: On the cusp of cycling's greatest revolution

Post by horizon »

Si wrote: Alas they do nothing to solve the other issue: the terror of traffic.


Unless of course all that talk of dangerous roads was the ideal cover for a fear of effort? Electric bikes will be smoking people out in their thousands: suddenly now those hills are less threatening the traffic doesn't look so bad after all. :wink:
When the pestilence strikes from the East, go far and breathe the cold air deeply. Ignore the sage, stay not indoors. Ho Ri Zon 12th Century Chinese philosopher
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Si
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Re: On the cusp of cycling's greatest revolution

Post by Si »

horizon wrote:
Si wrote: Alas they do nothing to solve the other issue: the terror of traffic.


Unless of course all that talk of dangerous roads was the ideal cover for a fear of effort? Electric bikes will be smoking people out in their thousands: suddenly now those hills are less threatening the traffic doesn't look so bad after all. :wink:


In my experience this isn't the case by and large. However, contrary to my earlier sentiment, I do wonder if the fact that they are riding a "powered" vehicle might make some feel more empowered to claim their place on the road (bit of "headology"), and furthermore, for the very new unfit cyclist riding in traffic may feel much easier when their top speed is 15mph rather that around 8mph...especially when the other traffic isn't doing much more. Maybe.
reohn2
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Re: On the cusp of cycling's greatest revolution

Post by reohn2 »

More and more people are cycling but its by no means anywhere near the critical mass needed to tip the scales for most people against the fear of traffic.
In the UK the reason cycling is so unpopular,and don't run away with the idea it isn't,is because it's inconvenient, and perceived as dangerous,stack that against the car's incredible convenience and you have your answer.
Make cycling convenient and people will buy E-bikes lots of them,for that to happen it needs good quality infrastructure,not the mickey mouse infrastructure presently being built,err,sorry painted,until then cycling,powered or not will only ever be a minority transport means in the UK,we simply don't as a nation take cycling seriously enough to provide for it.

I think Horizon is massively mistaken
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661-Pete
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Re: On the cusp of cycling's greatest revolution

Post by 661-Pete »

I don't go along with the premiss, for similar reasons to reohn's.

There is always going to be a divide amongst 2-wheelers - those who favour mechanical propulsion and those who don't. Electric bikes are somewhere in between the motorbike and bicycle stools, but they are still a separate class with their separate adherents.

Plenty of cyclists, including some I know, also have an electric of course. But in general they hang on to the pedal-powered variant!

As to the perceived antagonism between powered and non-powered - I don't see too much of that. I don't think there's any between electric and non-electric.

Anyway, pedals are here to stay. Off-road, certainly: I just hope they're here to stay on the roads too.
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Cunobelin
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Re: On the cusp of cycling's greatest revolution

Post by Cunobelin »

Si wrote:I'm seeing more and more of them in Birmingham...I've even had to fix one for someone who works in the office.

At the moment a member of our team is looking into installing public use charge points in the city centre....apparently it's a 'mare as they all have different fittings


Ironically the same issue with cars.

There is an answer though with a universal fitting, something that is a major thorn in the side of the Governments strategy, but could be solved, but at a massive expense
thirdcrank
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Re: On the cusp of cycling's greatest revolution

Post by thirdcrank »

661-Pete wrote: ... bicycle stools ...


Are these a bit like rocking horse dooh dahs?
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horizon
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Re: On the cusp of cycling's greatest revolution

Post by horizon »

softlips wrote: I work in Copenhagen, Amsterdam and other big cycling cities and have yet to see an electric bike in any of them.


Like I said, it isn't Autumn yet, only a few leaves turning gold.

I am estimating that 90% of bike sales will be battery powered within 5 years and that seeing someone on an unpowered bicycle will become an oddity.

I won't be editing my first post so that we can return to the thread in 2022 and see if I was right! And yes, there are people who don't have mobile phones, still use film in their cameras and wind up their alarm clock every night: the 10%.
When the pestilence strikes from the East, go far and breathe the cold air deeply. Ignore the sage, stay not indoors. Ho Ri Zon 12th Century Chinese philosopher
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gaz
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Re: On the cusp of cycling's greatest revolution

Post by gaz »

horizon wrote:I am estimating that 90% of bike sales will be battery powered within 5 years and that seeing someone on an unpowered bicycle will become an oddity.

Current legislation does not allow persons under 14 years of age to ride an EPAC. Do you anticipate a change in legislation, or would you care to revise your figure?
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thirdcrank
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Re: On the cusp of cycling's greatest revolution

Post by thirdcrank »

horizon wrote: ... I am estimating that 90% of bike sales will be battery powered within 5 years and that seeing someone on an unpowered bicycle will become an oddity. ...


Two separate predictions here. Re the sales, I can only think of two types of buyer. One would be riders who need a bit of extra help to continue in their favourite sport, perhaps through growing old or with a disability. I could well imagine some of these riders going for the "mechanical doping" type of bike to keep up the cyclist image. The other would be people who see cycling on the telly and somehow think the bike draws you along and get a rude shock. An electric bike might make their dreams come true.

Re the almost universal usage, there are only so many oldies who would want to continue like that. The second group I mentioned accounts for a lot of bikes forgotten at the back of a garage. If electric bikes didn't make their dreams come true, there'd be more stored at the back of the garage, with the proviso that after a while, the battery would be cream-crackered so it would take more than pumping up the tyres to get going again.

It's notoriously difficult to predict the future, but my money wouldn't be on electric bikes.

Incidentally, what's the security like for the batteries? I could imagine them being attractive to thieves where bikes are chained to railings etc.
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