On the cusp of cycling's greatest revolution

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horizon
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Re: On the cusp of cycling's greatest revolution

Post by horizon »

Quick update here on what is happening in the Netherlands:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/ ... etherlands
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Oldjohnw
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Re: On the cusp of cycling's greatest revolution

Post by Oldjohnw »

horizon wrote:Quick update here on what is happening in the Netherlands:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/ ... etherlands



See under "Electric Bikes" thread.
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horizon
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Re: On the cusp of cycling's greatest revolution

Post by horizon »

Oldjohnw wrote:
horizon wrote:Quick update here on what is happening in the Netherlands:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/ ... etherlands



See under "Electric Bikes" thread.


Thanks Oldjohnw. That thread is usefuly focussing on the Netherlands. I just added the link here to show how things are shaping up generally. The more important news of course wil be ebike market share in the UK (from my POV).
When the pestilence strikes from the East, go far and breathe the cold air deeply. Ignore the sage, stay not indoors. Ho Ri Zon 12th Century Chinese philosopher
Oldjohnw
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Re: On the cusp of cycling's greatest revolution

Post by Oldjohnw »

horizon wrote:
Oldjohnw wrote:
horizon wrote:Quick update here on what is happening in the Netherlands:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/ ... etherlands



See under "Electric Bikes" thread.


Thanks Oldjohnw. That thread is usefuly focussing on the Netherlands. I just added the link here to show how things are shaping up generally. The more important news of course wil be ebike market share in the UK (from my POV).


A fair point. Thanks.
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Re: On the cusp of cycling's greatest revolution

Post by Vorpal »

Posts about the case of the crash involving Thomas Hanlon and a modified ebike have been moved to the thread on that topic viewtopic.php?f=7&t=124853&p=1448770#p1448770
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horizon
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Re: On the cusp of cycling's greatest revolution

Post by horizon »

Thanks Vorpal - this thread is really about ebikes taking off and their market share - will they, won't they rather than should they, should they not.

BTW there's a big ebike industry conference taking place soon in the UK and that might give some pointers:

https://www.bikebiz.com/ebike-summit-pa ... rch-panel/
When the pestilence strikes from the East, go far and breathe the cold air deeply. Ignore the sage, stay not indoors. Ho Ri Zon 12th Century Chinese philosopher
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Re: On the cusp of cycling's greatest revolution

Post by kwackers »

There's a good chuckle to be had reading the start of this thread.

Somewhere on here is an even older thread about ebikes where most folk were convinced they'd go nowhere.
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horizon
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Re: On the cusp of cycling's greatest revolution

Post by horizon »

horizon wrote:I am estimating that 90% of bike sales will be battery powered within 5 years and that seeing someone on an unpowered bicycle will become an oddity.



So I've got another two years. It may not hit 90%, but 50%?
When the pestilence strikes from the East, go far and breathe the cold air deeply. Ignore the sage, stay not indoors. Ho Ri Zon 12th Century Chinese philosopher
kwackers
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Re: On the cusp of cycling's greatest revolution

Post by kwackers »

horizon wrote:So I've got another two years. It may not hit 90%, but 50%?

Locally that seems to be pretty much the case now and certainly borne out by the number of ebikes you see.

I guess the interesting bit is the question; at what percentage will sales settle?
I think 90% is too high simply because there'll always be a market for a dog simple bicycle and partly because when ebikes are more ubiquitous there'll be a bit of a kick back to basics.
But I can imagine it settling at 60-80% of sales.
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Re: On the cusp of cycling's greatest revolution

Post by mercalia »

a nice monster tern ebike with Bosch motor and 2 batterys, cost about £4000 butlady owner said she got it in the cycle to work scheme so costing much less. Has very fat tyres and also a kiddy seat at the back.

it seems they all end up at Streatham Lidl sooner or later

WP_20200613_16_41_03_Pro.jpg



https://www.ternbicycles.com/uk/bikes/gsd


https://store-ternbicycles.co.uk/collections/gsd/products/gsd

ideal touring bike? 150 mile range with 2 batterys.
Last edited by mercalia on 13 Jun 2020, 5:45pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: On the cusp of cycling's greatest revolution

Post by reohn2 »

Mercalia
The Tern GDS range get rave reviews and store well too due the small wheels,personally at that kind of price range I'd be looking at the Reis & Müller range particularly the Multicharger.
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horizon
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Re: On the cusp of cycling's greatest revolution

Post by horizon »

horizon wrote: 19 Aug 2017, 12:06pm
So it is with electric bikes. I speak to no-one about cycling who doesn't mention them. It is the greatest change in cycling since the invention of the safety bicycle. My prediction is that within five years, a non-powered bicycle will be as quaint as someone using a candle to light their way.
Well, extraordinarily, that five years has now passed - in fact a couple of months ago. Two lessons from this:
1. Doesn't time fly? :D
2. Don't make predictions.

So, how did the prediction fare?

Well, it's obviously way out as there are plenty of non-electric bikes still being sold. But the ebike phenomenon does still plough on. I think what I had in mind is that battery technology would improve exponentially - lighter, cheaper, longer lasting. AFAIK, that hasn't happened, which isn't to say there haven't been small leaps forward. Nevertheless, ebikes are here and it would seem, here to stay. Maybe we need another five years.
When the pestilence strikes from the East, go far and breathe the cold air deeply. Ignore the sage, stay not indoors. Ho Ri Zon 12th Century Chinese philosopher
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Re: On the cusp of cycling's greatest revolution

Post by mattheus »

horizon wrote: 28 Nov 2022, 12:48pm So, how did the prediction fare?

Well, it's obviously way out as there are plenty of non-electric bikes still being sold. But the ebike phenomenon does still plough on. I think what I had in mind is that battery technology would improve exponentially - lighter, cheaper, longer lasting. AFAIK, that hasn't happened, which isn't to say there haven't been small leaps forward. Nevertheless, ebikes are here and it would seem, here to stay. Maybe we need another five years.
I think you've done really well! Most people made predictions that were more wrong.

The battery tech is a good point: I think Joe Average still expects it to improve at the same rate we've seen over the last 20 years. Perhaps because consumer electronics generally just keep getting better (Moore's Law?); but battery improvements have mainly been driven by inventing new chemistries, not constant refinement on what we already had.
MY prediction: battery tech won't be much better in 20 years time, and will be hampered by dwindling supplies of rare metals under the ground.
But eBikes have many years growth still to come!
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Re: On the cusp of cycling's greatest revolution

Post by Dingdong »

mattheus wrote: 28 Nov 2022, 1:21pm
horizon wrote: 28 Nov 2022, 12:48pm So, how did the prediction fare?

Well, it's obviously way out as there are plenty of non-electric bikes still being sold. But the ebike phenomenon does still plough on. I think what I had in mind is that battery technology would improve exponentially - lighter, cheaper, longer lasting. AFAIK, that hasn't happened, which isn't to say there haven't been small leaps forward. Nevertheless, ebikes are here and it would seem, here to stay. Maybe we need another five years.
I think you've done really well! Most people made predictions that were more wrong.

The battery tech is a good point: I think Joe Average still expects it to improve at the same rate we've seen over the last 20 years. Perhaps because consumer electronics generally just keep getting better (Moore's Law?); but battery improvements have mainly been driven by inventing new chemistries, not constant refinement on what we already had.
MY prediction: battery tech won't be much better in 20 years time, and will be hampered by dwindling supplies of rare metals under the ground.
But eBikes have many years growth still to come!
I think fast charge batteries could be a game changer. Especially if councils/shops/bike lanes get in on the act and provide charging points in abundance. If you could charge your battery up say 70% in the ten minutes you were in the butcher's, or twenty minutes while you waited for McDonald's, the need for big batteries and long range would be taken out of the equation. Solar charging and braking powered recovery charging would help also.

My prediction is for smaller and faster charging batteries, and a wide roll out of multiple fast charging facilities.
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Re: On the cusp of cycling's greatest revolution

Post by sussex cyclist »

horizon wrote: 28 Nov 2022, 12:48pm Maybe we need another five years.
Sounds like a plan.
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