The increase in longevity: it's finally halted

Vorpal
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Re: The increase in longevity: it's finally halted

Postby Vorpal » 7 Aug 2018, 3:25pm

horizon wrote:
Vorpal wrote:For what it's worth, I think it is unreasonable on any scientific basis to dismiss the affects of immunisation against polio, rubella, mumps, measles, etc. which ensured that many thousands more children survived their childhoods compared to earlier decades.


1. Your quote from the King's Fund above was very helpful - thank you.
2. I can't quite get my head round this, but AIUI, childhood survival isn't relevant here: what matters is the proportion of adults (who survived childhood) who reach ever older old age. That to me is the difference between longevity and life expectancy.

The article that you originally linked uses them interchangeably which is possibly a little confusing. But what 'life expectancy' means to the ONS and the report that the article was based upon is actually 'life expectancy from birth' (unless they specify otherwise) so the proportion of the population that survives childhood is very relevant. That's one of the reasons I posted about the life expectancy at 65, which means, for those who survive to 65, what is their continued life expectancy.
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Re: The increase in longevity: it's finally halted

Postby Xilter » 11 Aug 2018, 7:32pm

I’m confused as how infant death would have any bearing on the statistics of this study. They are comparing the life expectancy between 2010and now. Surely within they questioned time frame the infant death has not risen to negatively impact the results?
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Re: The increase in longevity: it's finally halted

Postby Bmblbzzz » 11 Aug 2018, 8:12pm

Re life expectancy vs longevity: the term generally used for how old people live to is "average age at death".

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Re: The increase in longevity: it's finally halted

Postby Bmblbzzz » 11 Aug 2018, 8:18pm

The discussion about WWI and II is interesting. I don't think it's necessarily relevant to either life expectancy of those born today or average age at death today, but it's interesting! I'd guess military fatalities are counted separately, but that won't be true for civilian casualties. But the greater effect on longevity and general health in Europe (though less so in UK) probably came from the immediate post-war period when there was widespread malnutrition, no effective health care, and widespread pollution of soil and water through ordnance and military detritus. This is visible in a vast swathe of Europe that was most badly affected: from Germany eastwards into Russia, basically. Adults born during WWII or in the immediate post-war period are visibly shorter and less healthy than those born earlier or from roughly the 1960s on.

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Re: The increase in longevity: it's finally halted

Postby Vorpal » 12 Aug 2018, 9:52am

Xilter wrote:I’m confused as how infant death would have any bearing on the statistics of this study. They are comparing the life expectancy between 2010and now. Surely within they questioned time frame the infant death has not risen to negatively impact the results?

It has not. So the changes are coming from something else.
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Re: The increase in longevity: it's finally halted

Postby Bmblbzzz » 12 Aug 2018, 3:23pm

Vorpal wrote:
Xilter wrote:I’m confused as how infant death would have any bearing on the statistics of this study. They are comparing the life expectancy between 2010and now. Surely within they questioned time frame the infant death has not risen to negatively impact the results?

It has not. So the changes are coming from something else.

And that might be something that happened a long time ago, when those now at the end of their lives were young. Or it might be a change in care or something towards the end of those lives. So it might be the start of a long-term trend or might be something temporary. I think it was pointed out earlier that similar declines have not been seen in other countries? If that's so, it's unlikely to be anything lifestyle related.

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Re: The increase in longevity: it's finally halted

Postby Xilter » 12 Aug 2018, 7:28pm

I think it’s diet. And I’m not talking soda pop and McDonald’s here.. they have been around for a long time. I think it is all this “ healthy alternatives” that are just chemical substitutes for naturally occurring product. If i can’t pronounce it.. my body probably wasn’t created to digest it.
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Re: The increase in longevity: it's finally halted

Postby Vorpal » 13 Aug 2018, 6:22am

Xilter wrote:I think it’s diet. And I’m not talking soda pop and McDonald’s here.. they have been around for a long time. I think it is all this “ healthy alternatives” that are just chemical substitutes for naturally occurring product. If i can’t pronounce it.. my body probably wasn’t created to digest it.

But that sort of thing is found in foods across Europe & North America, at least.
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Re: The increase in longevity: it's finally halted

Postby sjs » 13 Aug 2018, 7:29am

There's a lot of confusion here about what "life expectancy" means. It's rarely defined when mentioned in the usual media. And, obviously, you can't wait for people to die to calculate the real average age of death for people born in a particular year, except for years before about 1920. This is interesting (to me at least):

http://blogs.worldbank.org/opendata/what-does-life-expectancy-birth-really-mean

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Re: The increase in longevity: it's finally halted

Postby mumbojumbo » 13 Aug 2018, 9:45am

From a selfish point of view,the =general pattern is immaterial.If you exercise,eat and dring in moderation you should not only live a bit longer but crucially enjoy your life rather than feel you are in deaths waiting room waiting to be called to your place of rest.

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Re: The increase in longevity: it's finally halted

Postby crazydave789 » 15 Aug 2018, 11:11pm

longevity was bound to start falling because we have made the species weaker than it has ever been, we allow life to continue when nature would usually decree that it shouldn't, often this is just done because we can rather than because we should. so we no longer abort abnormal foetuses because they are often from a mother who has thrown the dice too late in life.

so we can keep the body alive but not the brain which means we have wards full of elderly patients who don't even know what day it is and this is expected to get worse as the effects of other influences start to take hold. All Three of my grandmothers and the one grandfather I had all wanted to die but were not allowed to by the medical profession. My grandad even went on hunger strike at 74 to try and force the issue. Personally I think we need a serious non virtue signalling talk on euthanasia and giving people the freedom to end their lives simply and by choice when they have had enough. I'd even advocate soylent green type funery booths and a state payout to pass on to your chosen heirs. not everyone wants to be the next stephen hawking.

without a clean DNA sample we don't even know what effect tv and radiowaves are having on the human body let alone wifi and mobile phones - when it takes 28 generations to outgrow any genetic deforming influence we will probably never find out, not to mention that the post war generations have been exposed to airborne particulates of all varieties from shake and vac to airborne plutonium from the thousands of nuclear tests done in the northern hemisphere.

with endless toxins used at home messing with our childrens immune systems to scrapping of physical education lessons in favour of sociology we are setting our kids up to be unhealthy a lot earlier without drastic actions like banning parents cars within a mile of schools and keeping them at school until after 5 to do sports and technical subjects.

mustn't grumble tho, still got me health. for now at least, then its the 'herbal tea' for me.

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Re: The increase in longevity: it's finally halted

Postby sjs » 15 Aug 2018, 11:58pm

Longevity is not falling. It just isn't increasing at as high a rate as it was.