** The Climate Change Thread **

[Jdsk]

May be Covid19 and monkeypot and similar to come is blessing disguise?

Maybe I've become cynical but for example look at how we (humanity) have reacted to anti-biotic resistance. When I was training 25 years ago we were taught back then about anti-biotic resistance, causes and devastating impacts. Causes and impacts we were taught back then are pretty much the same as has happened (e.g. overuse, preventative dosing by agriculture, incomplete courses, inappropriate use e.g. against viral infections). Yet 40 years later and the only thing that has changed is a lot more resistant bugs already causing issues.

We [human race] fully understood the problem, causes, impacts and what we needed to do and completely failed to act and are now seeing the problems. Is the Covid/Monkeypox situation going to be any different? Politicians have already moved-on and are heralding their own (personal) success at resolving the pandemic.

That isn't "the only thing that has changed". The burden of communicable diseases has been enormously reduced.

As has the burden of all disease. And access to clean water and sanitation has improved and starvation has decreased. And life expectancy has increased.

It's easy to find these data.

Jonathan

[Psamathe]

May be Covid19 and monkeypot and similar to come is blessing disguise?

Maybe I've become cynical but for example look at how we (humanity) have reacted to anti-biotic resistance. When I was training 25 years ago we were taught back then about anti-biotic resistance, causes and devastating impacts. Causes and impacts we were taught back then are pretty much the same as has happened (e.g. overuse, preventative dosing by agriculture, incomplete courses, inappropriate use e.g. against viral infections). Yet 40 years later and the only thing that has changed is a lot more resistant bugs already causing issues.

We [human race] fully understood the problem, causes, impacts and what we needed to do and completely failed to act and are now seeing the problems. Is the Covid/Monkeypox situation going to be any different? Politicians have already moved-on and are heralding their own (personal) success at resolving the pandemic.

That isn't "the only thing that has changed". The burden of communicable diseases has been enormously reduced.

As has the burden of all disease. And access to clean water and sanitation has improved and starvation has decreased. And life expectancy has increased.

It's easy to find these data.

Jonathan

I meant the only thing that has changed with regard to preventing antibiotic resistance. e.g. only a few years ago WHO were calling on farming to stop using antibiotics as preventative and growth prompters.

Even in UK primary healthcare antibiotics seem readily given without establishing bacterial or viral.

With regard to antibiotic resistance I'm sure things have improved a bit but we have failed to stop the practices making resistance happen much faster.

Ian

[Jdsk]

The major points that I was trying to make was that people suffering and dying from communicable diseases isn't any sort of blessing at all. It's people suffering and dying.

And that we are making good progress on reducing the numbers. As with many other aspects of the quality of life.

Jonathan

[Jdsk]

I meant the only thing that has changed with regard to preventing antibiotic resistance. e.g. only a few years ago WHO were calling on farming to stop using antibiotics as preventative and growth prompters.

Even in UK primary healthcare antibiotics seem readily given without establishing bacterial or viral.

With regard to antibiotic resistance I'm sure things have improved a bit but we have failed to stop the practices making resistance happen much faster.

I'd like to see much greater progress on doing the things that we know will counter the problem of antimicrobial resistance, as you describe.

But for UK primary healthcare that description is simply wrong. Many things have changed since the problem was recognised. Enormous effort has gone into education, development and promotion of guidelines, and monitoring of prescribing. There is international surveillance. And many specific studies of what is happening.

Jonathan

[Psamathe]

I meant the only thing that has changed with regard to preventing antibiotic resistance. e.g. only a few years ago WHO were calling on farming to stop using antibiotics as preventative and growth prompters.

Even in UK primary healthcare antibiotics seem readily given without establishing bacterial or viral.

With regard to antibiotic resistance I'm sure things have improved a bit but we have failed to stop the practices making resistance happen much faster.

I'd like to see much greater progress on doing that things that we know will counter the problem of antimicrobial resistance, as you describe.

But for UK primary healthcare that description is simply wrong. Many things have changed since the problem was recognised. Enormous effort has gone into education, development and promotion of guidelines, and monitoring of prescribing. There is international surveillance. And many specific studies of what is happening.

Jonathan

I was basing the comment regarding UK healthcare on personal experience (both my own and when caring for parents and using Walk-In Centres). e.g. after some dental work I was given a single massive antibiotic preventative dose (pharmacist had to call somebody to verify the dose as it was above whatever their guidelines were and single dose), e.g. Dad used to regularly get coughs and when they got bad we'd go to Walk-In Centre and they'd just give an antibiotic prescription. So anecdotally based comment.

I fully accept that any amount of UK healthcare effort training, guidelines, monitoring will not create a 100% system.

Ian

[Jdsk]

Unfortunately generalising from anecdotes doesn't help in healthcare: there's a massive number of episodes and lots of things that can go wrong and many of us are biassed to remember the exceptional and the worst.

Fortunately more reliable methods of finding out what's going on are available.

Jonathan

PS: If anyone wants to see the current guidelines for antimicrobial prescribing for eg sore throat in England:
https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/ng84/r ... 4723226606

[simonineaston]

What will be interesting is what'll happen when the bulk of population realises that the very few who are in charge are not doing what's right. I don't think that day is far off.
Of course "doing what's right" is indefinable, so for one group it might mean keeping immigants out, others may feel its more important to cease all use of fossil fuels, others might set greatest store on their continuing right to cart their kiddies to the local school by car, etc. etc. etc. - the exact nature of each red line is by-the-by...
What's more important is the perception that we are no longer in control. The rule of law is under stress and the prospect of civil dispobedience becomes increasingly real. And of course, this trend has already begun.
But on the plus side, there is time left for a few more bike rides

[reohn2]

The major points that I was trying to make was that people suffering and dying from communicable diseases isn't any sort of blessing at all. It's people suffering and dying.

And that we are making good progress on reducing the numbers. As with many other aspects of the quality of life.

Jonathan

But there are huge swathes of hunanity dying from starvation,disease and lack of medical care.
Whilst in the west,the so called first world,people are living longer,sometimes too long with little to no quality of life,needing lots resources to simply keep them breathing.
Don't get me wrong I don't know any answers other than that the world population is growing dramatically,as resources diminish.
There surely must be a tipping point where humanity,with the best will in the world,can't support such a system of increased population,at some point things may begin to turn seriously bad for humanity,perhaps little by little initially but gathering a pace of entropy.
It's a frightening thought,but to quote a chap I know in his 80's,"I'm glad to have lived when I have,I think i've seen the best of it",what the next 20 or so years may bring is anyone's guess,but I suspect it won't continue to get any better than now.
I sincerly hope I'm wrong.

[Jdsk]

The major points that I was trying to make was that people suffering and dying from communicable diseases isn't any sort of blessing at all. It's people suffering and dying.

And that we are making good progress on reducing the numbers. As with many other aspects of the quality of life.

But there are huge swathes of hunanity dying from starvation,disease and lack of medical care.
...

Yes, far too many.

But the harm from all of those is decreasing. (Have to be careful with absolute and relative numbers here.)

And we know how to reduce all of them.

Jonathan

[Jdsk]

But there are huge swathes of hunanity dying from starvation,disease and lack of medical care.
Whilst in the west,the so called first world,people are living longer,sometimes too long with little to no quality of life,needing lots resources to simply keep them breathing.

It's difficult in the UK because of the damage from the last decade of "austerity".but the trend is strongly towards more years of high quality life.

Jonathan

[Jdsk]

Don't get me wrong I don't know any answers other than that the world population is growing dramatically,as resources diminish.
There surely must be a tipping point where humanity,with the best will in the world,can't support such a system of increased population,at some point things may begin to turn seriously bad for humanity,perhaps little by little initially but gathering a pace of entropy.

There's nothing inevitable about that, and there aren't any data to show that it's happening yet.

And there were plenty of people in the past who asserted that we couldn't support the world's current population.most often because of food supply. But we are and with higher quality of life.

And we do know the big answers.

Shirley

[AlaninWales]

Don't get me wrong I don't know any answers other than that the world population is growing dramatically,as resources diminish.
There surely must be a tipping point where humanity,with the best will in the world,can't support such a system of increased population,at some point things may begin to turn seriously bad for humanity,perhaps little by little initially but gathering a pace of entropy.

There's nothing inevitable about that, and there aren't any data to show that it's happening yet.

And there were plenty of people in the past who asserted that we couldn't support the world's current population.most often because of food supply. But we are and with higher quality of life.

And we do know the big answers.

Shirley

Indeed, food supply was a huge threat particularly when the (much smaller) population was eating up so much of the available nitrogen fertiliser. Without scientific breakthrough it was accepted (and likely in retrospect) that the world was within 30 years of using up all the main naturally occuring nitrogen fertiliser (guano) and causing mass starvation as a result. Fortunately an Austrian scientist found out how to pull nitrogen out of the air into a relatively* stable form, using massive energy inputs to do so of course.

Now we have a much larger population highly dependent on the energy-hungry process (amongst others) and are rapidly running out of the main sources of energy production we are set up to exploit. At the same time, our means of exploiting energy reserves are causing knock-on effects that have been known but ignored for decades. When the energy crunch comes (as is probably inevitable now), the effects won't just be the direct climatic effects and high energy prices; those processes we relied on to allow our increased population and higher (on average) quality of life, will themselves be unsustainable.

*Relatively stable, but the basis of many modern explosives.

[Jdsk]

Fortunately an Austrian scientist found out how to pull nitrogen out of the air into a relatively* stable form, using massive energy inputs to do so of course.

Haber? But both Haber and Bosch were German...

Jonathan

[Bsteel]

Haber? But both Haber and Bosch were German...

Jonathan

Wasn't Haber Prussian ?

[AlaninWales]

Fortunately an Austrian scientist found out how to pull nitrogen out of the air into a relatively* stable form, using massive energy inputs to do so of course.

Haber? But both Haber and Bosch were German...

Jonathan

Ahh so he was, my error . German scientist.