** The Climate Change Thread **

[roubaixtuesday]

Keeling curve, a measure of CO2 in the atmosphere
parts per million versus time 1958 to present
my yellow line showing current rate of increase
xKeeling.jpg
we're not even slowing down the rate of increase
red is rolling 52 week average of CO2

You're absolutely right - here's an official version of the rate of increase year by year. The trend is evident.

But as per post above on solar, there are reasons to hope we may be nearing a peak.

[PDQ Mobile]

Global coal consumption has continued to increase though.

"Global coal consumption reached an all-time high of approximately 8.5 billion tons in 2023 and is expected to peak around 8.87 billion tons by 2027....."
Wiki

2024 saw highest ever say some sources

It's pretty sad.

Solar can only ever be a partial solution surely?

[roubaixtuesday]

Global coal consumption has continued to increase though.

"Global coal consumption reached an all-time high of approximately 8.5 billion tons in 2023 and is expected to peak around 8.87 billion tons by 2027....."
Wiki

2024 saw highest ever say some sources

It's pretty sad.

Solar can only ever be a partial solution surely?

I think if we are very close to peak coal, that's actually extremely positive.

Re. Solar, I was a sceptic, but the cost of both panels and batteries has plummeted to such an extent it's now driving electrification as a cost saving rather than environmental benefit.

Not just developed nations, but now places like Pakistan are already past peak emissions, and massive uptake of adulst in just the lay crew years is what's driving it.

Aviation and shipping, and some industrial processes are the main sectors where electrification is difficult or impossible.

Aviation is more and more out on a limb IMO.

[Pebble]

I do think we will peak at some point (weirdly China will be leading the way) . However we are now in the danger zone in regard to tipping points, or runaway events.

The only big mistake the climate scientists have made is the timeline of global warming, it is happening much faster than they ever predicted. And they have always said runaway events (egxample-Tundra thawing and releasing vast amounts of methane) could start to happen once above the 1.5° threshold. We're as good as there. I don't think they will be wrong about tipping points.

we're doing too little too late, and with the like of Drill baby Drill, I'm not seeing much hope

[roubaixtuesday]

I do think we will peak at some point (weirdly China will be leading the way) . However we are now in the danger zone in regard to tipping points, or runaway events.

The only big mistake the climate scientists have made is the timeline of global warming, it is happening much faster than they ever predicted. And they have always said runaway events (egxample-Tundra thawing and releasing vast amounts of methane) could start to happen once above the 1.5° threshold. We're as good as there. I don't think they will be wrong about tipping points.

we're doing too little too late, and with the like of Drill baby Drill, I'm not seeing much hope

Climate change is not going faster than predicted, it's bang on track, unfortunately.

https://www.science.org/content/article ... al-warming

Runaways are not an issue on the way you describe. Here's an article by the current director of NASA GISS on the concept.

https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/a ... no-return/

On Arctic methane feedback, which is absolutely real, the IPCC says

"It is very unlikely that gas clathrates (mostly methane) in deeper terrestrial permafrost and subsea clathrates will lead to a detectable departure from the emissions trajectory during this century"

(Clathrates are the biggest potential source of severe methane feedback)

So it's bad, but I think you're exaggerating the science.

[Pebble]

in the 1990s they were takinking about 1°by 2050 and notable changes to the climate by the end of the century - we have 1.3 / 1.4 now
notable changes, glacial retreat / Greenland melt was Late-century, very noticible now
we are seeing change 20 / 30 years ahead of what they were saying in the 90s

we seem to have followed the worse case scenarios with the production of greenhouse gases way above what was predicted - The warming per rise in CO2 were accurate, but the amount of CO2 pumped into the atmosphere was never envisaged


if we get between 1.5 and 2.0 the loss of reflective ice plus the increased releases of methane is inevitable, the massive increase in Boreal forest wildfires with our longer drier spells - there is a great danger that these increase may overwhelm our reductions (if we ever make any)

I think we are already past the point of no return -

[roubaixtuesday]

in the 1990s they were takinking about 1°by 2050 and notable changes to the climate by the end of the century - we have 1.3 / 1.4 now
notable changes, glacial retreat / Greenland melt was Late-century, very noticible now
we are seeing change 20 / 30 years ahead of what they were saying in the 90s

This isn't the case at all.

I posted a link in the previous showing that predictions are pretty much bang on track. Have a read.

we seem to have followed the worse case scenarios with the production of greenhouse gases way above what was predicted - The warming per rise in CO2 were accurate, but the amount of CO2 pumped into the atmosphere was never envisaged

This is also not true at all.

https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/emiss ... -following

I think we are already past the point of no return -

What exactly do you mean by this?

[roubaixtuesday]

Great presentation of the energy transformation that now seems to be underway.

https://rmi.org/wp-content/uploads/dlm_ ... lution.pdf

[gbnz]

I think we are already past the point of no return -

But isn't the question really, does it matter ?

Most people on the forum will be dead by the time notable affects are apparent. Future generations will either adapt lifestyles to such and other geo political changes and live, or die early.

It doesn't really affect us, though is a nuisance that it's a bit hotter in the summer now. But until the 4/4 OAP's are forcibly taken off the road, or a few hundred people in our own neighbourhood are dying several years earlier than anticipated, via flooding, shortages of vegetative food stuffs and so on, the typical person who uses a motor vehicle, heats with fossil fuel, dry's washing with a tumble drier or whatever, will not change their behaviour. It's rather like motorists only stop driving when they're dead (Nb. I think there are some people on the forum, who are motor vehicle users)

So back to the original point. Won't affect me in 30yr's, quite defintely 40yr's time, so climate change doesn't really matter (Nb. Actually happen to live an environmentally neutral lifestyle, with a fraction of the pollution of all sorts deliberately generated by the bulk of the population in countries like the UK )

[mattheus]

I think we are already past the point of no return -

But isn't the question really, does it matter ?

Most people on the forum will be dead by the time notable affects are apparent.

[gbnz]

I think we are already past the point of no return -

[/quote]

Well, things do change. It's a bit like that patch Pebble resides in. Yes, it used to be tropical around there, though that volcanic phase forming our major cluster of hills, was years back, before our time.

But the locals were around 20,000yr's+ back, when our patch was covered by glaciers, hundreds of feet deep. Gives a superb, dead flat, quick run home now (Nb. Milfield Plain). Can't imagine what it'd have been like, even if I had the Schwalbe Marathon Plus on the back wheel.

[Carlton green]

I think we are already past the point of no return -

But isn't the question really, does it matter ?

Most people on the forum will be dead by the time notable affects are apparent.

It’s true that most people now on this forum will be dead before climate change really bites. On the other hand many of us have children and grandchildren who we’d rather didn’t suffer the effects of climate change, so it matters to us. However, for those who either have no descendants or are of a self centred inclination climate change doesn’t matter (‘cause they’ll be dead when it bites humanity).

Wait though. What’ll happen in the next decades? I’m not young and the chances are slim but I could have decades of life left to me. The oldest man alive is 112 and if I lived as long as him (unlikely) I too would see - and feel - a lot of unwelcome environmental changes.

[gbnz]

It’s true that most people now on this forum will be dead before climate change really bites. On the other hand many of us have children and grandchildren who we’d rather didn’t suffer the effects of climate change, so it matters to us. However, for those who either have no descendants or are of a self centred inclination climate change doesn’t matter (‘cause they’ll be dead when it bites humanity).

Wait though. What’ll happen in the next decades? I’m not young and the chances are slim but I could have decades of life left to me. The oldest man alive is 112 and if I lived as long as him (unlikely) I too would see - and feel - a lot of unwelcome environmental changes.

Fair enough, I presume that like myself, you don't drive or fly, light & heat your home via windpower, cooking your meals via the same, avoiding eating bits of cow, pigs, lambs, living a reasonably, unpolluting lifestyle ?

Had left the decaying plants, with their flowers in the ground until yesterday afternoon, as whilst it's been weeks since bee's have been around, some sort of hover flies were still feeding off them, just two weeks back. Though did feel it necessary to relocate a slug in a container, away from the herbs.

I take it you aren't a motor vehicle user, given your concerns about environmental changes ? It's disgusting that people are still allowed to injure, kill and pollute as if it were normal. But such people will continue in their horrific practices, until they're forced to stop. Vague concern about climate change will never stop the majority engaging in their horrific practices. Humanity will have to be heavily affected, prior to any significant action on climate change

[mattheus]

It's disgusting that people are still allowed to injure, kill and pollute as if it were normal. But such people will continue in their horrific practices, untilt they're forced to stop

Mr gbnz, your choice of posts so far - concluding with the text above - presents an inconsistent view point.
What do you actually think? We can hardly respond to you sincerely and in good faith if your posts just flip-flop around.

No offence meant - I can only judge on what you post here.

[Carlton green]

It’s true that most people now on this forum will be dead before climate change really bites. On the other hand many of us have children and grandchildren who we’d rather didn’t suffer the effects of climate change, so it matters to us. However, for those who either have no descendants or are of a self centred inclination climate change doesn’t matter (‘cause they’ll be dead when it bites humanity).

Wait though. What’ll happen in the next decades? I’m not young and the chances are slim but I could have decades of life left to me. The oldest man alive is 112 and if I lived as long as him (unlikely) I too would see - and feel - a lot of unwelcome environmental changes.

Fair enough, I presume that like myself, you don't drive or fly, light & heat your home via windpower, cooking your meals via the same, avoiding eating bits of cow, pigs, lambs, living a reasonably, unpolluting lifestyle ?

Had left the decaying plants, with their flowers in the ground until yesterday afternoon, as whilst it's been weeks since bee's have been around, some sort of hover flies were still feeding off them, just two weeks back. Though did feel it necessary to relocate a slug in a container, away from the herbs.

I take it you aren't a motor vehicle user, given your concerns about environmental changes ? It's disgusting that people are still allowed to injure, kill and pollute as if it were normal. But such people will continue in their horrific practices, until they're forced to stop. Vague concern about climate change will never stop the majority engaging in their horrific practices. Humanity will have to be heavily affected, prior to any significant action on climate change

Oh dear, you appear to have taken a comment personally and that wasn’t my intent at all. What I did (intend to do) was answer specific points as noted in my post. Am I as virtuous as you seem to be? No, I’m not that virtuous and few of us are, but that neither stops us being concerned about climate change or stops us doing things differently such that we live in a more environmentally friendly way .

Do you really think that significant action has not been taken on environmental matters and climate change? If so then I’m puzzled why. Lots of different actions have been taken by humanity and they have been significant for those people if not necessarily the planet, and things could currently be both worse than they are and pointing in a worse direction too. A bit of positivity is a wonderful thing, and it encourages us to (strive to) do better again.