How's your weather?

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pwa
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Re: How's your weather?

Post by pwa »

Biospace wrote: 26 Jul 2022, 10:07pmSuggesting last week's two days of intense (for Britain) heat is a sign of possibly out of control AGW makes as much sense (which is some sense, I'm not suggesting this is non-sense btw!) as saying that the intensely cold winter of 1962/63 was a sign that the interglacial period we're in was fading back to much more glaciation, with half of Britain uninhabitable and the rest like Siberia. If we look at the records, without AGW we're due to return to this sort of climate any time now as interglacials typically last 10k years, with 70-90k years of glaciation before the next warmer period might be expected to return.

It's far too late for our behaviour not to affect climate for hundreds of years to come, even if we stopped burning fuel for energy tomorrow. In saying this, don't assume I'm suggesting it's pointless to do nothing. The terrible levels of pollution alone should be more than enough reason to stop using oil as we do. That fossil fuels will likely run out later this century, at current consumption levels, is probably less of a factor of change than the relative price of renewables to conventional energy.

It's worth reminding ourselves the planet has a constantly changing climate which is affected by changes in the planet's various geometrical anomalies, volcanic activity and other powerful, natural forces as well as Man. Also that Europe experienced a mini ice age for a few centuries until the late Victorian era and that our planet's normal (80%-ish of the time) state of being is not in a glacial period as we are at present.
Over the last couple of decades we have had a concentration of warmest years, for the planet, which are now forming a pattern. Not every year, but a concentration. If you get much of your news from the BBC, as I do, your weather news will generally be dealt to you with the caveat that one event does not in itself prove climate change. Which is true. But when you start seeing a pattern, over decades, you'd have to be a fool not to take notice. On its own, the weather of the last few weeks could just be a chance event, but it isn't one event on its own. Things do seem to me to be changing here in the UK and across the globe. So it is perhaps now time to shed some of our reticence to see climate change in single events and say, with increasing certainty, that something is happening. We are not talking about individual events, we are talking about a pattern.

The experts who study man-made climate change are the same people who tell us about natural climate change, and it is their judgement that man-made change is significant now. It is still possible that they are mistaken in that assessment and that an underlying part of the change is natural, and just by chance has run parallel to man-made impact on the atmosphere over the last two centuries, but that is looking less and less likely, and would you take a chance with the future habitability of the planet just because they might have misjudged it? We would have to be really confident in them being wrong before choosing to ignore their warnings.

(And some of those extreme heat readings last week were from non-urban locations).
Biospace
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Re: How's your weather?

Post by Biospace »

Mick F wrote: 27 Jul 2022, 5:23pm Lincolnshire is in the East, not the North.
Lincolnshire is just up from Norfolk.

Anywhere east of Reading, is London. :wink:
Paulatic wrote: 27 Jul 2022, 6:47pm As someone born in the North It’s down south but known as going to the East.
Think it’s officially East Midlands.

I mentioned the Romans grew grapes in "the North of England", as in North as opposed to South. Many of us will appreciate our climate and weather are at least as different from East to West as North to South, I wonder if you'd describe Grimsby (the nearest town to Roman vineyard) first and foremost as an Eastern or Midlands town, or as one in the North. It's situated on the south side of the Humber estuary.

I think it's fair to say Manchester or Liverpool are first and foremost Northern cities, rather than "western".

It's 53° 27'N, York is 53° 57'N and London 51° 30'N. Make of that what you will!

It does raise the question as to whether 'the North' is perceived to penetrate further south on the west side of England than the east, also why England is more commonly divided between the North and South, rather than East and West. Is this because we're aligned more N-S than E-W or is it more a cultural matter?
Biospace
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Re: How's your weather?

Post by Biospace »

pwa wrote: 28 Jul 2022, 6:29am
Biospace wrote: 26 Jul 2022, 10:07pmSuggesting last week's two days of intense (for Britain) heat is a sign of possibly out of control AGW makes as much sense (which is some sense, I'm not suggesting this is non-sense btw!) as saying that the intensely cold winter of 1962/63 was a sign that the interglacial period we're in was fading back to much more glaciation, with half of Britain uninhabitable and the rest like Siberia. If we look at the records, without AGW we're due to return to this sort of climate any time now as interglacials typically last 10k years, with 70-90k years of glaciation before the next warmer period might be expected to return.

It's far too late for our behaviour not to affect climate for hundreds of years to come, even if we stopped burning fuel for energy tomorrow. In saying this, don't assume I'm suggesting it's pointless to do nothing. The terrible levels of pollution alone should be more than enough reason to stop using oil as we do. That fossil fuels will likely run out later this century, at current consumption levels, is probably less of a factor of change than the relative price of renewables to conventional energy.

It's worth reminding ourselves the planet has a constantly changing climate which is affected by changes in the planet's various geometrical anomalies, volcanic activity and other powerful, natural forces as well as Man. Also that Europe experienced a mini ice age for a few centuries until the late Victorian era and that our planet's normal (80%-ish of the time) state of being is not in a glacial period as we are at present.
Over the last couple of decades we have had a concentration of warmest years, for the planet, which are now forming a pattern. Not every year, but a concentration. If you get much of your news from the BBC, as I do, your weather news will generally be dealt to you with the caveat that one event does not in itself prove climate change. Which is true. But when you start seeing a pattern, over decades, you'd have to be a fool not to take notice. On its own, the weather of the last few weeks could just be a chance event, but it isn't one event on its own. Things do seem to me to be changing here in the UK and across the globe. So it is perhaps now time to shed some of our reticence to see climate change in single events and say, with increasing certainty, that something is happening. We are not talking about individual events, we are talking about a pattern.

The experts who study man-made climate change are the same people who tell us about natural climate change, and it is their judgement that man-made change is significant now. It is still possible that they are mistaken in that assessment and that an underlying part of the change is natural, and just by chance has run parallel to man-made impact on the atmosphere over the last two centuries, but that is looking less and less likely, and would you take a chance with the future habitability of the planet just because they might have misjudged it? We would have to be really confident in them being wrong before choosing to ignore their warnings.

(And some of those extreme heat readings last week were from non-urban locations).

You're replying as if you think I don't see that Man is altering our climate - we clearly are and I've said so! I've been observing these patterns for a long while, I remember feeling there was a noticeable change through the end of the 90s/early 00s.

But, while mentioning tipping points and so on, I'm reminding us of the bigger picture - that Man's effects are only a small part of the many factors which determine these things, that Western farming practices have likely as much or more effect than fossil fuel burning and no one government appears to be taking this anywhere near as seriously as the amount of taxation they're extracting because of climate change would suggest. 🧐

We do not know if we've heated things enough to prevent the imminent re-glaciation, due any time now. We don't know if our effects could tip the world out of the Quaternary period into Greenhouse Earth in which there are no polar ice caps and things would be a lot warmer - in which it's quite likely, ironically, there would be more land room for human occupation, or if this did happen whether or not it would have happened at a similar time with or without AGW.

It's all very complex. My own view is that huge 'damage' is already done, but that we should move away from fossil fuels as completely as possible to improve our health and also mitigate against climate effects - 95% RE should be relatively easy - in a way which doesn't create destabilisation or undue suffering. Human health should be an important consideration, given that on the one hand we're due for another glaciation (think half of Britain covered with thick ice sheet) and on the other it's possible AGW could tip us out of this Glacial Period altogether. If we're really expecting sea levels to rise and storms to increase in intensity and frequency, building nuclear power stations in coastal areas seems suspect. We can cope with most things when we're healthy, much less so when a significant proportion of society is sick. 🤢

The desertification of North Africa is thought to be in part natural climatic change, in part caused by human behaviour (Roman tree felling and poor agricultural practice in the latter stages of their Empire). There are people who would like to reclaim desert landscapes, but climate scientists say that although this is likely ok on a small scale, on a large scale could contribute to global warming. Strange as it seems, deserts (definition - they lose more water than gain) contribute to cooling the planet more than vegetation - there is more heat returned to space.

This is interesting reading,
https://qr.ae/pvMloW
https://climatefeedback.org/claimreview ... -guardian/
https://news.mit.edu/2020/reflecting-su ... storm-0602
Last edited by Biospace on 28 Jul 2022, 3:23pm, edited 1 time in total.
pwa
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Re: How's your weather?

Post by pwa »

Biospace wrote: 28 Jul 2022, 3:07pm
You're replying as if you think I don't see that Man is altering our climate - we clearly are and I've said so! I've been observing these patterns for a long while, I remember feeling there was a noticeable change through the end of the 90s/early 00s......
No, I do see you are being more nuanced and thoughtful than that. My main point, I suppose, is simply that the man-made climate change that we have been fearing for several decades does look as though it has arrived. If there is a natural change happening at the same time, that would be a bit of a coincidence, because the changes we are seeing, and their timing, are pretty much what we have been expecting. And the pattern is becoming clearer with each year.

I studied this at Uni in 1979/80 and even then we were told that this "greenhouse effect" happened in controlled laboratory chambers, so might be expected to work within the atmosphere.
Jdsk
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Re: How's your weather?

Post by Jdsk »

The available interventions that can reduce the harm from climate change are predominantly independent of whether the causes are man-made or not.

Jonathan
Biospace
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Re: How's your weather?

Post by Biospace »

pwa wrote: 28 Jul 2022, 3:23pm
Biospace wrote: 28 Jul 2022, 3:07pm
You're replying as if you think I don't see that Man is altering our climate - we clearly are and I've said so! I've been observing these patterns for a long while, I remember feeling there was a noticeable change through the end of the 90s/early 00s......
No, I do see you are being more nuanced and thoughtful than that. My main point, I suppose, is simply that the man-made climate change that we have been fearing for several decades does look as though it has arrived. If there is a natural change happening at the same time, that would be a bit of a coincidence, because the changes we are seeing, and their timing, are pretty much what we have been expecting. And the pattern is becoming clearer with each year.

I studied this at Uni in 1979/80 and even then we were told that this "greenhouse effect" happened in controlled laboratory chambers, so might be expected to work within the atmosphere.

It's possible it arrived longer ago than we think, but that's purely my hunch. Realising I was seeing and feeling for myself what I'd read about and studied left me feeling a little awed and scared that humans were really having such an effect. However, having lived a little and seen the awful effects of pollution, whether nuclear radiation, coal dust, smoke, asbestos, agrichemicals or just the brake dust which accumulates at busy junctions, I'm inclined to think we ought to be trying first and foremost to reduce pollution. With that, a lot of AGW would also decrease.

A huge change in mindset is needed as we've haven't evolved to think of ourselves as 'God'. We've swept waste under the carpet, buried it, burned it, sent it a long way away, made it less visible - and still are. But that's not an option for much longer so we have to learn to deal with the mess we make and make far less of it. The figures for plastic alone are mind-blowing - the poisoning of our rivers, lakes and oceans, our soils and so much other life including ourselves and what we eat. So much is easily avoidable, yet - as with climate change - nothing significant is changing.

Any society which isn't fit and healthy is far less able to deal with big changes in our lives. The US was one of the most rapidly improving nations at the beginning of the C20th, health-wise, yet the most rapidly deteriorating at the end of it. There's a lot we need to relearn, including how to be happy without continual consumption of things we don't really need.

If we sort ourselves out in this way, there's a very good chance that we'll have also reduced AGW enormously and we'll be better placed to deal with whatever else is needed. To continue with our economics as they are now means we're increasingly at risk of totalitarian rule as the only way to keep things in check, as in China.

There's no easy way out of the predicament we've landed ourselves in, but if we ensure free speech and health don't tail off into another European Dark Age, there's every chance the future will be something to look forwards to for our children, theirs and beyond.
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Paulatic
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Re: How's your weather?

Post by Paulatic »

Biospace wrote: 28 Jul 2022, 1:46pm [


I mentioned the Romans grew grapes in "the North of England", as in North as opposed to South. Many of us will appreciate our climate and weather are at least as different from East to West as North to South, I wonder if you'd describe Grimsby (the nearest town to Roman vineyard) first and foremost as an Eastern or Midlands town, or as one in the North. It's situated on the south side of the Humber estuary.

I think it's fair to say Manchester or Liverpool are first and foremost Northern cities, rather than "western".

It's 53° 27'N, York is 53° 57'N and London 51° 30'N. Make of that what you will!

It does raise the question as to whether 'the North' is perceived to penetrate further south on the west side of England than the east, also why England is more commonly divided between the North and South, rather than East and West. Is this because we're aligned more N-S than E-W or is it more a cultural matter?
The Romans did indeed grow grapes in the North. I thought evidence of that was at Hadrian's . They still grow grapes to this day in the Hexham area. Definitely North.
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Jdsk
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Re: How's your weather?

Post by Jdsk »

Paulatic wrote: 28 Jul 2022, 4:15pm ...
The Romans did indeed grow grapes in the North. I thought evidence of that was at Hadrian's .
...
Have you got a source for that, please?

Thanks

Jonathan
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Paulatic
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Re: How's your weather?

Post by Paulatic »

Jdsk wrote: 28 Jul 2022, 4:21pm
Paulatic wrote: 28 Jul 2022, 4:15pm ...
The Romans did indeed grow grapes in the North. I thought evidence of that was at Hadrian's .
...
Have you got a source for that, please?

Thanks

Jonathan
Just memory. There is a vineyard you can/could see off the A68. I used to pass it regular 40 years ago. The guy who planted it was interviewed on TV and asked why he had chosen to grow grapes so far north. IIRC he suggested it was nothing that hadn’t been done before. The Romans had done it at the Wall. I’ve no idea if that is still a business I’ve not been passed for some 20 years or more.
A quick Google throws up mentions in blogs. The first I look at says
Archaeological data shows that two thousand years ago the Roman occupiers of Britain grew grapes around Hadrian’s Wall. That activity stopped around fifteen hundred years ago, as the climate cooled, in what we now know as the ‘Dark Ages’.
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Jdsk
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Re: How's your weather?

Post by Jdsk »

Thanks.

That quote seems to be from:
https://breakingviewsnz.blogspot.com/20 ... ng-of.html

He doesn't give any references and I don't think that he's right. I'd be very interested in what that "archaeological evidence" consists of.

Jonathan
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Paulatic
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Re: How's your weather?

Post by Paulatic »

Jdsk wrote: 28 Jul 2022, 5:09pm Thanks.

That quote seems to be from:
https://breakingviewsnz.blogspot.com/20 ... ng-of.html

He doesn't give any references and I don't think that he's right. I'd be very interested in what that "archaeological evidence" consists of.

Jonathan
I searched using that txt and a science paper has a map showing grape pruning hooks were found as far north as the Antonine.
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Biospace
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Re: How's your weather?

Post by Biospace »

Paulatic wrote: 28 Jul 2022, 5:03pm
Jdsk wrote: 28 Jul 2022, 4:21pm
Paulatic wrote: 28 Jul 2022, 4:15pm ...
The Romans did indeed grow grapes in the North. I thought evidence of that was at Hadrian's .
...
Have you got a source for that, please?

Thanks

Jonathan
Just memory. There is a vineyard you can/could see off the A68. I used to pass it regular 40 years ago. The guy who planted it was interviewed on TV and asked why he had chosen to grow grapes so far north. IIRC he suggested it was nothing that hadn’t been done before. The Romans had done it at the Wall. I’ve no idea if that is still a business I’ve not been passed for some 20 years or more.
A quick Google throws up mentions in blogs. The first I look at says
Archaeological data shows that two thousand years ago the Roman occupiers of Britain grew grapes around Hadrian’s Wall. That activity stopped around fifteen hundred years ago, as the climate cooled, in what we now know as the ‘Dark Ages’.

Jdsk wrote: 28 Jul 2022, 5:09pm Thanks.

That quote seems to be from:
https://breakingviewsnz.blogspot.com/20 ... ng-of.html

He doesn't give any references and I don't think that he's right. I'd be very interested in what that "archaeological evidence" consists of.

Jonathan

My guess is that the Romans planted vines wherever they built a villa and fort, given the climate in the centuries they ruled was warmer than now. WIne was an everyday aspect of their life and although we didn't start to improve on their amazing roads until the C18th, reducing the distances wine travelled over land would surely have been desirable.

v.jpeg

They could build concrete which set underwater, would self-repair and last thousands of years. The largest unsupported concrete dome in the world hasn't needed significant repair in two millenia of floods, earthquakes and war, yet the smaller US Capitol dome, supported by iron, has required three lots of major repairs in its short history. The whole of Roman Britain was governed for a time by an African, a Berber from a small town in what is now Algeria who oversaw the 'conquer' of southern Scotland. Given we've vineyards as far North as we have today, I doubt the Romans struggled to do similarly.
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NATURAL ANKLING
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Re: How's your weather?

Post by NATURAL ANKLING »

Hi,
yakdiver wrote: 18 Jul 2022, 7:03pm 39.2c outside 27.3c inside
Is your outside sensor in the shade and not affected by radiant heat from other materials like walls wood etc?
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Please forgive the poor Grammar I blame it on my mobile and phat thinkers.
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NATURAL ANKLING
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Re: How's your weather?

Post by NATURAL ANKLING »

Hi,
al_yrpal wrote: 19 Jul 2022, 11:36am Culture war? You lost me.. I do believe the climate experts are correct and that we should be addressing the problem. But, as an Engineer who worked in the energy industries for many years I despair at some of the nonsensical solutions being enacted.

Al
Steel and concrete production.
Steel accounts for 30 % of co2.
NA Thinks Just End 2 End Return + Bivvy - Some day Soon I hope
You'll Still Find Me At The Top Of A Hill
Please forgive the poor Grammar I blame it on my mobile and phat thinkers.
Jdsk
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Re: How's your weather?

Post by Jdsk »

NATURAL ANKLING wrote: 1 Aug 2022, 12:53pm ...
Steel accounts for 30 % of co2.
30% of global carbon dioxide production? Or 30% of something else?

Thanks

Jonathan
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