Do you ever consider the worse that can happen?

[Jdsk]

David Speigelhalter has some interesting ideas if you take a look.

Yes, outstanding work on public understanding of risk.

Jonathan

[Peter F]

Seriously though: a very difficult thing to quantify - how do you assess risk? David Speigelhalter has some interesting ideas if you take a look. Personally, I nearly died in a non cycling accident eight years ago, and it does make you look at things slightly differently. Whatever you do, you have to enjoy it while you can, as none of us are going to live forever!

I own the Norm Chronicles and I'm a bit of a fan of David Speigelhalter.
Accurately assessing risk unless you have access to data is impossible and even then data tends to tell you about averages. So you can calculate the average probability of dying on a bicycle but that doesn't tell you about individual risk and the impact of your own specific behaviour or environment.
There are lots of things people worry about doing, such as cycling on the road,but what will kill most of us will be far more mundane.

[rmurphy195]

I'm no more likely to stop cycling to avoid the risk of being squished than I am to stay indoors forever because I'm on the shielding list.
I don't take unnecessary risks, but I'm not going to spend my last few days on this world regretting things I didn't do when I should have.
Life's too short to wrap yourself up in cotton wool.

+1, though it has taken a while to get over being T-Boned about 5 years ago. Still get nervous, nearly had it happen again today. I do find myself getting angry at people's behaviour ever since then, where I didn't before. Somtimes have to practice anger management, sometimes I fail and give a finger wave, reduces the tension somehow. Now carry a video cam as a silent witness, but have given up complaining to the police

PS I've been cycling since the late 50's! (1950's that is!)

[arnsider]

Just a practical tip.
Carry a space blanket, so prividing you are conscious, you can get someone to protect you from hypothermia while the ambulance is coming!!!

[Cowsham]

I've never really worried about the potential for serious injury - or worse - whilst riding my bike. However, in 2012 I came off and broke my left shoulder blade (nobody to blame but myself and a traffic calming feature I didn't see) and then in January this year I was assaulted by a bush on a stormy night on my commute whilst doing about 20mph resulting in a cracked skull, separated collar bone and a few cracked ribs.

I console myself with the thought that it could have been worse, I could have been driving and smashed into a lamp post or something. At least I'm still here and still cycling....

Did you ever get your separated collarbone fixed ?

I have a workmate who's just done his falling off a mountain bike -- ie ruptured the ac and cc joints so his collarbone sits high at the outboard end.

The horrible thing about it is that the NHS are not bothered about fixing it since he has a good range of motion on his arm but this surely must compromise the strength in that shoulder.

Being a young fit guy I'd thought it would be wise to get that sorted but he doesn't seem that bothered -- even at my age I'd pay to have it fixed, but despite being young and in a well paid engineering roll he's not going to. ??

I'm both saddened by the NHS response and puzzled by his indifference.

[gbnz]

...


Did you ever get your separated collarbone fixed ?

but this surely must compromise the strength in that shoulder.

Being a young fit guy I'd thought it would be wise to get that sorted but he doesn't seem that bothered -- even at my age I'd pay to have it fixed, but despite being young and in a well paid engineering roll he's not going to. ??

I'm both saddened by the NHS response and puzzled by his indifference.

Haven't broken my collar bone on the bike since August 2021. But neither that, nor the two shoulders broken in the previous twelve months, cause an issue, other than immediate pain for 5 weeks (Nb. Aside from still riding, I use the gym 4-5 occ a week, never found an issue with it compromising strength - though the collar bone has a notable bump).

But otherwise? Haven't been in an emergency ambulance now since last Tuesday. Had a full 36-37 hour gap before that and a 69 day gap prior to that. Now I'm 50, I'm not supposed to ride or who knows, live, but who gives a .........Enjoy the ride - have a superb, 31 mile local circular this afternoon, could be fatal if the brain fails part way, who gives a ...

[Cowsham]

...


Did you ever get your separated collarbone fixed ?

but this surely must compromise the strength in that shoulder.

Being a young fit guy I'd thought it would be wise to get that sorted but he doesn't seem that bothered -- even at my age I'd pay to have it fixed, but despite being young and in a well paid engineering roll he's not going to. ??

I'm both saddened by the NHS response and puzzled by his indifference.

Haven't broken my collar bone on the bike since August 2021. But neither that, nor the two shoulders broken in the previous twelve months, cause an issue, other than immediate pain for 5 weeks (Nb. Aside from still riding, I use the gym 4-5 occ a week, never found an issue with it compromising strength - though the collar bone has a notable bump).

But otherwise? Haven't been in an emergency ambulance now since last Tuesday. Had a full 36-37 hour gap before that and a 69 day gap prior to that. Now I'm 50, I'm not supposed to ride or who knows, live, but who gives a .........Enjoy the ride - have a superb, 31 mile local circular this afternoon, could be fatal if the brain fails part way, who gives a ...

His isn't broke but it would have been better if it had instead of the ac and cc ligaments. ( my collarbone and shoulder blade broke either side of the ac joint 'ligament ' but the joint itself was OK )

Surely they should've fixed those ligaments for him -- he said it might cost about £4k -- I said I wouldn't even think about it and get it done -- I'd break the surgeons arm

[irc]

As others have said the fact the cycling is statistically safe is a bit of a red herring. Our individual risk varies hugely depending on numerous factors.

Route choice. I completely avoid one local rural 60mph road because it is busy and at that awkward with where it isn't safe for car drivers to overtake in the face of oncoming traffic but not obviously so. The alternative road is urban 30/40 the whole way and feels safe to me because the traffic is far slower and there are sections of bus lanes etc. I will happily add a few hundred metres to get off a major fast 60/70mph road on to a quieter local/service road.

Awareness of traffic. I use a mirror which I think saved my life one time on tour in the USA when I had to ride of the road onto the gravel shoulder to avoid being hit by a camper van doing around 60mph. I watch every overtaking car. A few times I have seen a close punishment pass coming and have avoided it by moving a couple of feet to the nearside. Which is why I always ride at least 2 or 3 feet from the edge.

Try to anticipate what other road users will do and have a plan for an escape route.

Concentration. I try to be aware of the road surface ahead to avoid any hazards. I usually ride alone but if I'm riding behind another cyclists I'm never directly behind. Far enough out so I can still watch the road surface.

I don't do the mileage of many here but have done a few tens of thousand miles touring, commuting, and leisure. No injury accidents. Maybe I'm just lucky? On the other hand I regularly see cyclists wearing a helmet so presumably concerned about risk but the riding in the doorzone. Being doored is a risk that is completely avoidable.

[reohn2]

irc
I agree with all of your post including a RVM which I've used for many years.
However after being a fairly high mileage 7,000 to 10,000 miles a year cyclist,I became tired of fighting with the road wolves in cars and gradually spent more and more of my cycling off road,with the onset of Covid that too became a bind with the number of walkers on my main towpath routes,some quite obstinate and occasionally abusive,I used to get to the hills and moors I like to ride,so much so what with that and arthritis joint problems I've practically given up cycling and haven't ridden for the past year.

[Jules59]

There are far worse things than being killed in a cycling accident. Surviving but being severely brain damaged as a result would be one in my opinion.
Perception of risk is an interesting topic. I've been a SCUBA diver for many years . Non-diving friends and work colleagues thought I was totally mad to go diving at night and into caves and wrecks as its perceived as being being a really dangerous/risky thing. But I think driving a car and riding a bike on the road is far more dangerous as there are more factors you have no control over - mainly the actions of other people who are not thinking about danger and risk at all and display no situational awareness.

So, yes I do think about the worst things that can happen and try to mitigate those by reducing the risks - eg front & rear lights, bright colours, high viz, sprintech mirrors, bell, considerate and aware cycling.

[Grandad]

. I watch every overtaking car.

On a busy road do you get chance to look ahead

[Cowsham]

Needing a p but the only stop is a pub full of Liverpool fans and I'm wearing skin tight non matching blue and white Lycra top and bottom.

[SupermanVsSnowman]

There are far worse things than being killed in a cycling accident. Surviving but being severely brain damaged as a result would be one in my opinion.
Perception of risk is an interesting topic. I've been a SCUBA diver for many years . Non-diving friends and work colleagues thought I was totally mad to go diving at night and into caves and wrecks as its perceived as being being a really dangerous/risky thing. But I think driving a car and riding a bike on the road is far more dangerous as there are more factors you have no control over - mainly the actions of other people who are not thinking about danger and risk at all and display no situational awareness.

So, yes I do think about the worst things that can happen and try to mitigate those by reducing the risks - eg front & rear lights, bright colours, high viz, sprintech mirrors, bell, considerate and aware cycling.

Couldn't agree more. I find it ironic when people say "could have been severely injured or even worse" implying that death is the worst possible outcome. It really isn't, you don't suffer when you're dead (altho others will). If I am going out for a ride I will usually go in the evening or in the middle of the night. You don't get to see as much when riding at midnight but it is a very chill time to go riding. You've pretty much got the roads to yourself and as a bonus, it tends to be less windy at night.

There's also mountain biking. You have far more control of the level of danger.

[irc]

. I watch every overtaking car.

On a busy road do you get chance to look ahead

Know what you mean but in practice not an issue. Quick glance to see whats coming up behind. If there is a car then another quick glance as it nears to ensure it is either settling in behind me or if going past that it is going wide enough.

An example of when it has helped. On tour USA. Riding in the centre of a 5 or 6 foot wide hard shoulder on rural road. Saw in my mirror 5 or 6 motorbikes coming up. Thought nothing of it. They had the rest of the road to themselves. Through habit glanced at the mirror again as they were closer. One detached himself from the group and moved to the edge of the shoulder intending to buzz past me very close. Once he was committed and a second or two away I just moved to the far edge of the shoulder and he was nowhere near me as he went past.

Another example. 4 lane 30mph road in Glasgow. As is my habit with narrow lanes I rode in the centre of the lane. This annoyed a driver behind me. So as he moved out to the other lane to overtake rather than go fully into the lane he tried to give me a punishment close pass. Again I saw him coming and just before he reached me moved to the nearside. No stress.

Had I not known it was coming it would have been a heartstopper. My two scriest moment in cycling were unexpected close elbow grazing passes. One before I started using a mirror. The other after a mirror broke.

I wouldn't dream of riding on the road without a mirror. The times I actually need to react to it are extremely rare but they happen.

[Paradiddle]

I do think about this quite a bit. In fact after I moved to London from the Midlands I sold my bike and didn't cycle for a while because of London's previously notorious reputation with cyclists being hit. I also personally knew someone who was under a wheel of a lorry and somehow survived to tell the tale.

I got over this slowly as London's cycle infrastructure got better. I started getting to know people's behaviours depending on where I was, time of day and what they drove. I also avoid jumping lights and let people cross the roads. I think what goes around comes around as people have been ok with me as well. As others have said simply being careful and aware on the road has been the best way for me to avoid any incidents.

I do have life insurance and critical illness cover to cover for the worst but nothing beats being safe and careful. A few extra minutes on the road is not going to do much to my commute but will increase my life expectancy significantly.