Gang of six-impact on Xmas

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Jdsk
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Re: Gang of six-impact on Xmas

Postby Jdsk » 19 Sep 2020, 9:28pm

Manc33 wrote:Excess deaths? It was flu season.

There were a lot of excess deaths in the UK in early 2020 compared to the same months in previous seasons. Are you suggesting that was due to flu rather than COVID-19?

Thanks

Jonathan
Last edited by Jdsk on 19 Sep 2020, 9:32pm, edited 1 time in total.

Jdsk
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Re: Gang of six-impact on Xmas

Postby Jdsk » 19 Sep 2020, 9:31pm

Manc33 wrote:Excess deaths? It was flu season.

Jdsk wrote:
Manc33 wrote:In the US I think it was $39,000 per person or something like that, if they died from covid.

Are you confusing the Medicare payment for treatment with something to do with death?
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/medicare-hospitals-covid-patients/
https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/04/24/fact-check-medicare-hospitals-paid-more-covid-19-patients-coronavirus/3000638001/

There was an incentive to say people have got coronavirus so my original point still stands.

... you're agreeing that's what the quoted $39,000 referred to?

What's the similarity between an item of service payment for a very expensive item of service in an item of service system and false reporting of cause of death?

Jonathan

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[XAP]Bob
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Re: Gang of six-impact on Xmas

Postby [XAP]Bob » 19 Sep 2020, 10:04pm

Manc33 wrote:
[XAP]Bob wrote:
Manc33 wrote:Let's just ignore it and have the usual Christmas. I certainly will be.


But given that you ignore all scientific evidence that doesn’t surprise me.

In this case your wilful ignorance will kill.


The evidence for this virus is not based in science though. Science involves a dependent and an independent variable, but how can that apply when the testing is skewed from the outset - that is, they are testing for something that's always present in all our bodies all our lives, then claiming to have diagnosed people with something when they find it. That's not science.


Sorry - are you claiming that all the negative test results are faked?
A shortcut has to be a challenge, otherwise it would just be the way. No situation is so dire that panic cannot make it worse.
There are two kinds of people in this world: those can extrapolate from incomplete data.

Jdsk
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Re: Gang of six-impact on Xmas

Postby Jdsk » 19 Sep 2020, 10:17pm

[XAP]Bob wrote:... are you claiming that all the negative test results are faked?

That's what I was going to ask, after the answer to:
Jdsk wrote:
Manc33 wrote:
Jdsk wrote:What's the "something", please?

Coronavirus.

Are you saying that SARS-CoV-2 was "always present in all our bodies all our lives"?

Jonathan

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[XAP]Bob
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Re: Gang of six-impact on Xmas

Postby [XAP]Bob » 19 Sep 2020, 10:23pm

landsurfer wrote:I've been at work every day since the 23rd of March.
Not working from home ...
Every working day .. apart from the 2 weeks in Cornwall with the children on holiday in August.
Everyone of you that calls for greater lockdowns, more separation, more draconian measures to "defeat" C-19 ...
I take it you still want me to go to work ....
Food on your tables, transport, I take it you want that .. ?

As long as you don't have to do it ........ after all your "shielding" ...

Every one of you that clapped for the NHS ... did you clap for the men and women working in ALDI ? ...

No you didn't ...

On Tuesday another raft of pointless restrictions will be announced, and you will all be in favour of them ...

As long as I keep going to work .... while you hide away ......


And I thank you for it...
As I do all retail workers who have carried on adapting to the restrictions which have been applied.

As I have done those who have delivered food and drugs, batteries and bottles, ....


I've been at work every day except a few scattered days off, but since I've been working from home since an illness 2.5 years ago that didn't need to change. I haven't been out significantly until about 4 weeks ago, and still am very much limiting where I go, and who with.


I will continue to do so, and each day of increasing cases I consider whether or not I should go back to my parents house in a far less affected area of the country - and continue to shield there.


There is a strong suspicion that I contracted the illness much earlier in the year, but since testing was only available if you were an inpatient at a hospital (a rather bizarre requirement) which I barely avoided (pulse oximeter and my wife timing my breathing throughout the night - I was very close to being admitted).
The problem being that if what I had *wasn't* covid, then hospital would have been the absolute worst place for me, if it *was* covid then it would have been a sensible place to be. But we couldn't make an informed decision because I wasn't an inpatient...
It looks like some of the medication I was on anyway is part of what they are using to reduce the immune mediated "second phase" of the illness which has proved so dangerous.

Of course there is still no evidence to suggest whether that possible encounter would have conferred any resistance - and since my immune system is suppressed by four different medications (two broad spectrum, two targeting different pathways) that wouldn't really be much indication anyway.

There have been a million deaths worldwide... In the UK there had been ~ 64,000 deaths (that's basically 1 per 1000 population killed) above the adjusted annual average when I did the calculation more than a month ago (i.e. before the second wave).
[Adjusted Annual Average - I took the rolling 5 year average for each week, and noted that we were tracking for a low flu year, so adjusted the numbers a little down to reflect the early weekly death rate]

That is the number of people who have died, not those infected, or permanently disabled, or even permanently "inconvenienced" by having their lungs wrecked.
A shortcut has to be a challenge, otherwise it would just be the way. No situation is so dire that panic cannot make it worse.
There are two kinds of people in this world: those can extrapolate from incomplete data.

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[XAP]Bob
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Re: Gang of six-impact on Xmas

Postby [XAP]Bob » 19 Sep 2020, 10:25pm

Manc33 wrote:
landsurfer wrote:Manc33 .... don't fall for the usual tactics of the high functioning Trolls on here ....


Cheers landsurfer, I'll try not to. I don't think Jdsk is trolling though.


Not trolls - people who actually care about the society in which we live.


The CDC report 'flu mortality for 2017 as 2 per 100k population that year in the USA.

That would translate to about 1300 people a year in the UK, but our stats for 2016/2017 were 571 (and that was a bad year)
Source - FOI request 009384.. Deaths by J10/J11 by age by year 2013-2017.

65k deaths is over a thousand times more than in 2013/2014.
Last edited by [XAP]Bob on 19 Sep 2020, 10:50pm, edited 1 time in total.
A shortcut has to be a challenge, otherwise it would just be the way. No situation is so dire that panic cannot make it worse.
There are two kinds of people in this world: those can extrapolate from incomplete data.

pwa
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Re: Gang of six-impact on Xmas

Postby pwa » 19 Sep 2020, 10:44pm

Ben@Forest wrote:
pwa wrote:The lockdown was the only tool in the bag at that time. We didn't have the testing capacity of some nations, notably Germany. And yes, it did work in the way it was meant to, as a way of suppressing the virus long enough to allow us to become better equipped. It was acknowledged that lifting the lockdown would see rates rise, which they duly did, but until we have the hoped for vaccines we need to maintain some measures to contain it. We all have a part to play in that. And if the great majority act responsibly the need for heavy handed restrictions will be minimised.


Waiting for a vaccine is not a strategy. I don't know why we aren't able to test the way other nations are but in the convoluted world of reporting statistics it's difficult to know what to believe. One news report today says that one third of UK Covid deaths in July or August were people who died principally because of other conditions. They could have easily died from pneumonia or the flu and no-one would have raised an eyebrow. And l heard a similar view from an NHS doctor months ago.

We are still acting with restraint. How many people in shops don't wear facemasks? How many have not clamoured for foreign holidays or open sports stadia? Whatever the right answer is it isn't more restrictions.

The proportion of "Covid deaths" in July and August more properly attributable to other causes is not a big concern because Covid deaths were low in those months, and mortality levels from all causes were more or less back to normal. It is the period with marked "excess mortality" in March, April and May where you will find the big Covid effect, and we could be returning to that soon if we are not very careful.

We are not now all acting with restraint. Some of us are but others are undermining our efforts. Plenty of idiots are willing to spend a couple of hours (x2) in the confined space of a plane, with air being recycled, relying on the dubious protection of face masks. Plenty are mingling with more family members and friends indoors than is advised or allowed, effectively having "bubbles" that are unlimited. And our children, now back at school, are passing the virus from family to family. The school transmission is perhaps unavoidable, so we need to cut out the other paths of transmission to keep rates from soaring.

Containing the virus is a delay tactic to get us over the period before a vaccine arrives. And containment involves restrictions on our behaviour, combined with testing and self isolation. Whether you call that a strategy or not, it is the best there is at the moment.

I hope we find vaccine soon so that we can get back to a better way of living, but until then folk need to get some backbone and show some stamina.

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Syd
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Gang of six-impact on Xmas

Postby Syd » 19 Sep 2020, 10:52pm

landsurfer wrote:I've been at work every day since the 23rd of March.
Not working from home ...
Every working day .. apart from the 2 weeks in Cornwall with the children on holiday in August.
Everyone of you that calls for greater lockdowns, more separation, more draconian measures to "defeat" C-19 ...
I take it you still want me to go to work ....
Food on your tables, transport, I take it you want that .. ?

As long as you don't have to do it ........ after all your "shielding" ...

Every one of you that clapped for the NHS ... did you clap for the men and women working in ALDI ? ...

No you didn't ...

On Tuesday another raft of pointless restrictions will be announced, and you will all be in favour of them ...

As long as I keep going to work .... while you hide away ......

There are a great deal more essential workers in the UK that the ‘obvious’ and I for one was embarrassed that the NHS were singled out in the way they were on Thursday evenings.

I hope you’re employer is complying with their obligations to keep you and your colleagues safe.

Ben@Forest
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Re: Gang of six-impact on Xmas

Postby Ben@Forest » 19 Sep 2020, 11:07pm

[XAP]Bob wrote:There have been a million deaths worldwide... In the UK there had been ~ 64,000 deaths (that's basically 1 per 1000 population killed) above the adjusted annual average when I did the calculation more than a month ago (i.e. before the second wave).
[Adjusted Annual Average - I took the rolling 5 year average for each week, and noted that we were tracking for a low flu year, so adjusted the numbers a little down to reflect the early weekly death rate]


Are you saying you work out there's 64,000 Covid deaths in UK?

Cowsham
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Re: Gang of six-impact on Xmas

Postby Cowsham » 20 Sep 2020, 12:06am

landsurfer wrote:I've been at work every day since the 23rd of March.
Not working from home ...
Every working day .. apart from the 2 weeks in Cornwall with the children on holiday in August.
Everyone of you that calls for greater lockdowns, more separation, more draconian measures to "defeat" C-19 ...
I take it you still want me to go to work ....
Food on your tables, transport, I take it you want that .. ?

As long as you don't have to do it ........ after all your "shielding" ...

Every one of you that clapped for the NHS ... did you clap for the men and women working in ALDI ? ...

No you didn't ...

On Tuesday another raft of pointless restrictions will be announced, and you will all be in favour of them ...

As long as I keep going to work .... while you hide away ......


Me too -- classed as an essential worker -- had the bit o paper to clarify to police if stopped at the total lock down time and now our workforce is being cut by a third while others are still off on their corona holidays. Makes me sick the selfish barsteward's --- I feel like shouting "get back to work you lazy scum just do it differently like we had to." Not only do we have to work harder but when I get home I've got home schooling to do now too shielding a vulnerable child and now the threat of redundancy. We just have to learn to adapt.

pwa
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Re: Gang of six-impact on Xmas

Postby pwa » 20 Sep 2020, 5:41am

Manc33 wrote:Excess deaths? It was flu season.

It was flu season and the excess deaths were deaths above and beyond what is expected in flu season, and flu wasn't even very bad this year.

Jdsk
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Re: Gang of six-impact on Xmas

Postby Jdsk » 20 Sep 2020, 9:36am

pwa wrote:
Manc33 wrote:Excess deaths? It was flu season.

It was flu season and the excess deaths were deaths above and beyond what is expected in flu season, and flu wasn't even very bad this year.

Yes.

In case anyone genuinely doesn't understand excess deaths it's the difference of deaths in the period of interest from the number in comparison periods, in this case typically a matched time of year in the five previous years. It isn't affected by diagnosis during illness, diagnosis at death, period between infection and death, bribery to affect any recording of those, volume of testing, results of testing, or the whims of the shape-shifting lizard masters.

So it trades detail for robustness. And that robustness supports comparison between regions and countries.

And you get results such as this, NB scales:

Image

Jonathan

Jdsk
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Re: Gang of six-impact on Xmas

Postby Jdsk » 20 Sep 2020, 9:37am

Ben@Forest wrote:
[XAP]Bob wrote:There have been a million deaths worldwide... In the UK there had been ~ 64,000 deaths (that's basically 1 per 1000 population killed) above the adjusted annual average when I did the calculation more than a month ago (i.e. before the second wave).
[Adjusted Annual Average - I took the rolling 5 year average for each week, and noted that we were tracking for a low flu year, so adjusted the numbers a little down to reflect the early weekly death rate]

Are you saying you work out there's 64,000 Covid deaths in UK?

Sounds about right.

Jonathan

landsurfer
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Re: Gang of six-impact on Xmas

Postby landsurfer » 20 Sep 2020, 9:47am

Syd wrote:There are a great deal more essential workers in the UK that the ‘obvious’ and I for one was embarrassed that the NHS were singled out in the way they were on Thursday evenings.

I hope you’re employer is complying with their obligations to keep you and your colleagues safe.


They've done a great job Syd .... not a single case within the business or out of it for any member of staff or their immediate families.
Simple stuff, individual vehicles for the team of fitters, single hotel rooms instead of sharing, an open plan office that allows separation but still allows fun and giggles in the workplace. And no one furloughed ....
Be More Mike.
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Syd
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Gang of six-impact on Xmas

Postby Syd » 20 Sep 2020, 2:58pm

landsurfer wrote:
Syd wrote:There are a great deal more essential workers in the UK that the ‘obvious’ and I for one was embarrassed that the NHS were singled out in the way they were on Thursday evenings.

I hope you’re employer is complying with their obligations to keep you and your colleagues safe.


They've done a great job Syd .... not a single case within the business or out of it for any member of staff or their immediate families.
Simple stuff, individual vehicles for the team of fitters, single hotel rooms instead of sharing, an open plan office that allows separation but still allows fun and giggles in the workplace. And no one furloughed ....

Glad to hear it.

Been hearing horror stories from others. Worst example was someone, in a public facing role, who phoned his boss to say he has Covid symptoms and was isolating. He was told to get the F into work or he was sacked.