Boris's Brain is missing

[thirdcrank]

The betting on Boris Johnson's leaving date are here

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/br ... -exit-date

WARNING: That's a commercial site promoting betting

[Jdsk]

Boris is a prat.
Sack him immediately.

I doubt he will see August as PM, let alone the year.

Mm - clearly i'm not the only one betting on a quickish exit mick.
Am surprised no bookies have opened a book on it.
Or maybe they have?

Exit date and odds:
2022 6/4
2023 21/10
2024 or later 7/4

To not be Tory leader at next General Election 4/11
To be Tory leader at next General Election 2/1

https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/ ... /outrights

Jonathan

Edited: Crossed post.

[Mick F]

Betting odds are set by the betting companies with respect to the bets being placed so the companies can make a profit.
Not anything at all to do with the real opinion of the public at large.

[Psamathe]

Boris is a prat.
Sack him immediately.

I doubt he will see August as PM, let alone the year.

Mm - clearly i'm not the only one betting on a quickish exit mick.
Am surprised no bookies have opened a book on it.
Or maybe they have?

Whilst I hope you're both right my own feeling is that he will still be in place for some time to come. My understanding is there are only two routes (given he wont go of his own accord).
1. Cabinet Ministers "have a quiet word" telling him it's time to go - what will then happen is those telling him will quickly be "reshuffled" back to the back benches, likely taking the blame for another PM gaf/failing.
or 2) That weird 1922? committee changes the rules to allow another confidence vote. But that apparently means changes to those on the committee and that will take time (longer than August).

I believe that the "silver lining" to him remaining is that next General election we will be rid of both Johnson and the Conservative Party as many lose their deposits and/or fail to get elected. Of course there is a cost to the country of him being in power but at least a longer term up-side.

Ian

[thirdcrank]

In addition to the odds, the site linked has a pie chart showing the distribution of bets as well as the odds, so each bet counts the same as the others, irrespective of amount of wager

[Mick F]

The more popular the horse in the race, the lower the odds. Nowt to do with how likely it is to win the race.

[Jdsk]

Betting odds are set by the betting companies with respect to the bets being placed so the companies can make a profit.
Not anything at all to do with the real opinion of the public at large.

The more popular the horse in the race, the lower the odds. Nowt to do with how likely it is to win the race.

The question of whether betting odds predict political outcomes is very interesting and increasingly well studied.

But outcomes ("winning the race") are completely different from "the real opinion of the public at large".

Jonathan

[richards]

I’ve just looked at the first post in this thread. 2 years on and we’re still hoping.

[francovendee]

Boris is a prat.
Sack him immediately.

I doubt he will see August as PM, let alone the year.

Mm - clearly i'm not the only one betting on a quickish exit mick.
Am surprised no bookies have opened a book on it.
Or maybe they have?

Whilst I hope you're both right my own feeling is that he will still be in place for some time to come. My understanding is there are only two routes (given he wont go of his own accord).
1. Cabinet Ministers "have a quiet word" telling him it's time to go - what will then happen is those telling him will quickly be "reshuffled" back to the back benches, likely taking the blame for another PM gaf/failing.
or 2) That weird 1922? committee changes the rules to allow another confidence vote. But that apparently means changes to those on the committee and that will take time (longer than August).

I believe that the "silver lining" to him remaining is that next General election we will be rid of both Johnson and the Conservative Party as many lose their deposits and/or fail to get elected. Of course there is a cost to the country of him being in power but at least a longer term up-side.

Ian

I can't fault your thoughts on Johnson going, the factor that puts doubt in my mind is the Tory party saying amongst themselves if not Johnson who?
This says more about the Tories than Johnson. So bereft of anyone better than this awful PM?
I think he is likely to take the ship down with him. We'll get a double win, rid of Johnson and the Tory government

[thirdcrank]

I'm cynical enough to believe that the "who else?" narrative comes from Boris Johnson's own spinners, although it's true that by surrounding himself with sycophants he's largely marginalised the serious competition. There's talk now of him staying for three terms - into the mid 1930s - but that could just as easily be his opponents' spin to precipitate his demise.

When I predicted a while ago that inflation would play a part, the suggestion was dismissed. Perhaps we are due for another round or two of world-leading jabs.

[Jdsk]

I was reading (and it makes sense to me) that the bigger worry for the Conservatives is (or should be) the Labour win as it's an indicator that they are losing/have lost the "Red Wall".

Actually it's potentially worse for them. As I've noted on here before, the 'red wall' term is often somewhat misunderstood. It was coined by a pollster who'd noted the outlying nature of those constituencies in that at the time (summer 2019) those seats were polling as rather more labour leaning than their underlying demographics would indicate. I.e. in an MRP model as is commonly used now, they were a noticeable cluster of residual errors in the statistical model.

The question here is whether this regain of a 'red wall' seat is just this otherwise unaccountable Northern 'anti Tory' sentiment reasserting itself. Or whether the ge2019 'correction' was permanent. If that's the case it could indicate large numbers of non 'red wall' conservative seats are also at risk.

Hopefully not as i don't think an outright labour majority would be in the long term interests of the country

Two interesting statements this week:

Labour plans do not involve joining the Single Market or Customs Union, let alone the EU:
https://www.glasgowtimes.co.uk/news/nat ... u---lammy/

Burnham is in favour of proportional representation, and:
"There is no getting away from the fact that Britain needs social reforms on a scale similar to those needed after the second world war. My starter for 10 would be: good housing as a human right in UK law and a major council house building programme to make it real; a higher basic minimum income for all and the end to insecure employment; social care on NHS terms and a substantial increase in mental health spending; and the re-nationalisation of rail and re-regulation of bus services."
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... esentation

Jonathan

PS: Betting odds (!) on the next Labour leader:
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/br ... our-leader

[Stevek76]

I think labour are both misjudging current public opinion on that (yougov hindsight q now reliably under 40% and trending down of those thinking it was a good idea to leave altogether) and also being far too reactive to focus groups rather than actually proactively leading on policies.

That said i view PR as far more important and i suspect a number of EU members may be wary of any substantially closer relationship whilst we still operate under the instability of fptp.

[Psamathe]

I'm cynical enough to believe that the "who else?" narrative comes from Boris Johnson's own spinners, although it's true that by surrounding himself with sycophants he's largely marginalised the serious competition....

I agree. There are several potential leaders that are "sensible" (in Conservative terms) who could present a big threat to a future Labour Government and would likely provide the excuse many Conservative voters are needing to return to voting Conservative. As you say it's likely the Johnson sycophants putting about that there is no viable alternative when reality is there are several.

Ian

[Jdsk]

I'm cynical enough to believe that the "who else?" narrative comes from Boris Johnson's own spinners, although it's true that by surrounding himself with sycophants he's largely marginalised the serious competition....

I agree. There are several potential leaders that are "sensible" (in Conservative terms) who could present a big threat to a future Labour Government and would likely provide the excuse many Conservative voters are needing to return to voting Conservative. As you say it's likely the Johnson sycophants putting about that there is no viable alternative when reality is there are several.

There's also the problem in our system that the first to go public rarely succeeds. Some aphorism about knives, wielding, and crowns?

And the reduction in the current pool of talent isn't only because of the restriction to sycophants: they also have to be true *believers.

Jonathan

* Spelling adjustable according to taste.

[thirdcrank]

Do people think Andy Burnham has any realistic prospects at the national level? I just see him as a lingering hangover from New Labour.