Boris's Brain is missing

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mjr
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Re: Boris's Brain is missing

Post by mjr »

Jupestar wrote: 23 Oct 2022, 10:39am
ossie wrote: 22 Oct 2022, 8:49pm
It's fine here,
Unless you need an Ambulance, Or an Operation. Then your f**ked.
Or some medications. One of mine has been unavailable since July. It's a chronic illness, so I'm not dead yet, but its absence may well be killing me slowly.

The lack of any government since July which was willing and able to act is not a coincidence : first a long Boris caretaker, then Truss mourning, then the Truss crises, now Truss caretaker, with her pal
Health minister Coffey mainly in the news for preventing action.
MJR, mostly pedalling 3-speed roadsters. KL+West Norfolk BUG incl social easy rides http://www.klwnbug.co.uk
All the above is CC-By-SA and no other implied copyright license to Cycle magazine.
Stevek76
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Re: Boris's Brain is missing

Post by Stevek76 »

ossie wrote: 23 Oct 2022, 10:24am
Base rates are still at 2.25%, historically low.
Based on?

That's historically normal for much of the interwar period and a far from uncommon rate in the 1800s. Not to mention that comparing interest rates under different monetary systems (gold standard, pegged to dollar, fiat etc) is really quite a futile exercise.

Much harping on about interest rates appears to be based on nothing more than the same kind of nostalgia that driven most of the rest of the economically destructive policy making in this country over the last decade. Using one's child hood/early adulthood as a reference point of the ideal for what things should be is without merit.

Decisions about interest rates need to be made given the current economic reality and raising them when there are both recessionary pressures and when most current inflation is cost push is utterly stupid.
The contents of this post, unless otherwise stated, are opinions of the author and may actually be complete codswallop
ossie
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Re: Boris's Brain is missing

Post by ossie »

Stevek76 wrote: 23 Oct 2022, 4:32pm
ossie wrote: 23 Oct 2022, 10:24am
Base rates are still at 2.25%, historically low.
Based on?

That's historically normal for much of the interwar period and a far from uncommon rate in the 1800s. Not to mention that comparing interest rates under different monetary systems (gold standard, pegged to dollar, fiat etc) is really quite a futile exercise.

Much harping on about interest rates appears to be based on nothing more than the same kind of nostalgia that driven most of the rest of the economically destructive policy making in this country over the last decade. Using one's child hood/early adulthood as a reference point of the ideal for what things should be is without merit.

Decisions about interest rates need to be made given the current economic reality and raising them when there are both recessionary pressures and when most current inflation is cost push is utterly stupid.
1800's wow that's a leveller. Obviously I'm talking BOE interest rates, I think most folk would comprehend my point, likewise no nostalgia at play.

In relation to your last sentence, now you have me reverting to my BTEC in economics ! In all probability the interest rate rises are due to a combination, demand pull was featuring much earlier in this process and unless the Govt swallow energy prices wholesale like France, cost pull is a longer term issue.

I don't think the BOE are totally blameless, however you appear to be putting the blame wholly at the door of the Monetary Policy Committee which is interesting. I won't argue otherwise as none of us know how this will pan out.
ossie
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Re: Boris's Brain is missing

Post by ossie »

duplicate
Last edited by ossie on 23 Oct 2022, 10:01pm, edited 1 time in total.
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simonineaston
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Re: Boris's Brain is missing

Post by simonineaston »

Anyway, the blimp has ruled himself out, having presumably been told by Mordant to stuff his offer and then failing to get enough hypocritcal sycophants to sign up...
S
(on the look out for Armageddon, on board a Brompton nano & ever-changing Moultons)
Psamathe
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Re: Boris's Brain is missing

Post by Psamathe »

ossie wrote: 23 Oct 2022, 10:24am ...
The BOE has forecast they won't go above 5% . The truth is borrowing has been too cheap for too long and interest rates were always forecast to rise, not just this quickly due to the ineptitude of Truss....
What I saw of the max 5% was that it was one individual on the MPC giving his personal opinion but I have not seen all forecasts from BoE so might have missed it. Certainly the interview of the MPC member he was saying it as his opinion.

And for ages people are considering the plight of mortgage payers but it is worth remembering the plight of those dependent on savings interest who have been seeing no income (after inflation) but their savings gradually shring (thanks to inflation and emergency low interest rtes). Mortgage payers have been benefitting to the detriment of savers for years.

I agree that interest rates have been too low for too long and the result is excessive house price inflation. Had they risen to more normal levels sooner rather than sticking at "emergency levels" for years then things would not be the challenge they are and will become now - and that is the BoE's fault. Trusses role is to cause everything to move far far faster than it should which will make life very difficult for some.

Ian
ossie
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Re: Boris's Brain is missing

Post by ossie »

Agree. At last some savings rates are popping up after all of these years but yes I empathise for those with a mortgage (I'm not sure I got much empathy when rates were at 15% ) and yes beans on toast for us when friends were handing their keys back.

Low interest rates and cheap borrowing have ballooned the UK housing market completely out of reach for many. Not just houses but cheap money for cars (PCP's), free money in the great Furlough fraud its like the 80's all over again.

There's going to be a reset and its around the corner. I'm not saying that's a good thing but when Sunak started dishing out the goodies and the world game to a halt there was always going to be a wash up. Naturally Putin didn't help and I doubt many mortgage lenders lobbed this guy into the equation.
Stevek76
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Re: Boris's Brain is missing

Post by Stevek76 »

ossie wrote: 23 Oct 2022, 9:21pm 1800's wow that's a leveller. Obviously I'm talking BOE interest rates
So was I, it's been around a while. :) Of its entire history rates ≥5% are rare and the only sustained period was between the end of bretton woods and black Wednesday.

however you appear to be putting the blame wholly at the door of the Monetary Policy Committee which is interesting. I won't argue otherwise as none of us know how this will pan out but "utterly stupid" is probably over egging it.
Possibly, but I struggle to see how hefting large increases in cost over a short time period onto significant portions of the population helps anyone right now, there has certainly been some demand inflation for quite some time but that seems majorly driven to me by wealth accumulation in assets, the bulk of recent inflation in goods bas been first brexit redtape and now oil/energy rises, i don't see how interest rates are a very efficient way of dealing with that. Indeed given the direct impact into mortgage and rents, at least some of the interest rate increase is simply going to feed straight back into the CPIH measure.

Certainly not blaming the mpc here (they ultimately have a fairly arbitrary target and a pretty blunt tool to try and achieve it), just a little puzzled by the notion of people welcoming rate rises (and there are not a shortage of these, particularly amongst the iea and the more austrian/chicago minded economists) on not much more rational than simply referencing rates from a few decades ago.
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Stevek76
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Re: Boris's Brain is missing

Post by Stevek76 »

Thanks to successive government policy, most don't have any substantial savings to speak of, those that do, being perfectly honest, aren't exactly struggling. Stocks usually a better option anyway.

Re, the 5/6%, that was is the rate the markets were 'pricing in' for next year based on gilt yields while truss was making a mess. I believe this has come down a little now but depending on what happens next there is still a significant risk.
I'm not sure I got much empathy when rates were at 15%
possibly not, but 5/6% on current house prices would be as bad if not even worse in terms of affordability vs wages

And yes house prices are daft. The problem the MPC has had for a few decades now is that the economically ideal interest rate for business borrowing and investment has generally been lower than the rate for the mortgage market. Ideally the government should've stepped in long ago with measures to restrain the housing market, if anything of course they've actually exacerbated it, particularly more recently.
The contents of this post, unless otherwise stated, are opinions of the author and may actually be complete codswallop
ossie
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Re: Boris's Brain is missing

Post by ossie »

Stevek76 wrote: 23 Oct 2022, 10:08pm Certainly not blaming the mpc here (they ultimately have a fairly arbitrary target and a pretty blunt tool to try and achieve it), just a little puzzled by the notion of people welcoming rate rises (and there are not a shortage of these, particularly amongst the iea and the more austrian/chicago minded economists) on not much more rational than simply referencing rates from a few decades ago.
Not welcoming it by any means. Most of my liquid assets are tied up in global stocks although I do have a cash surplus that will benefit from higher interest rates and the current situation. I agree about referencing rates from decades ago, so yes my bad in that regard. There are times when you try to gauge the forum I guess so its refreshing to read differing views.
reohn2
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Re: Boris's Brain is missing

Post by reohn2 »

What of the NHS being on it's knees?
Police,education,public transport?
Why are so many people using foodbanks?
Why are bankers bonuses remaining uncapped?
Why are energy companies allowed to make so much profit?
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"All we are not stares back at what we are"
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mumbojumbo
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Re: Boris's Brain is missing

Post by mumbojumbo »

Johnson pulls out , something he should have done more often in the past.Good of him to place national interest before his own needs
roubaixtuesday
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Re: Boris's Brain is missing

Post by roubaixtuesday »

mumbojumbo wrote: 24 Oct 2022, 6:26am Good of him to place national interest before his own needs
I think you've mis-spelled "Predictably lying to the last as he failed to get the requisite nominations"
francovendee
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Re: Boris's Brain is missing

Post by francovendee »

mumbojumbo wrote: 24 Oct 2022, 6:26am Johnson pulls out , something he should have done more often in the past.Good of him to place national interest before his own needs
I see what you did there :lol:
Jdsk
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Re: Boris's Brain is missing

Post by Jdsk »

"'He's f**ked us!' The inside story on why Boris quit leadership race":
https://www.express.co.uk/comment/expre ... ry-comment

Jonathan
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