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Re: Who's had the vaccine?
Posted: 24 Jan 2021, 12:53pm
by Psamathe
kwackers wrote:Jdsk wrote:kwackers wrote:My personal view is that without solid evidence then the broad spread of opinion amongst experts is what we should look at rather than selecting our favourite.
Sounds wise. But in this case the evidence is not bad for the selected interval.
That "wrong" jarred with me. I'm happy to provide links to a whole raft of expert opinions, but I'm not sure what's being asked for here and it might be a waste of time...
Jonathan
In this case we can select links that suit our preferred viewpoint. Experts on every side of the fence, pick one and run with it.
As time goes by the issue is getting more clouded, this is to be expected because nobody knows.
We tested a vaccine under the conditions we expected to use it and then decided to use it in an untested way.
Experts don't agree and so uncertainty is the way forward.
.....
And that uncertainty means more people questioning the usefulness of being vaccinated (i.e. some of those "vaccine hesitant" will more further to towards "maybe I wont"). More people questioning the politicians making medical decisions which means lower regard for political guidance ... There are impacts beyond levels of immunity.
I now feel Boris' two sidekicks Witty & Vallance are now as much politicians as scientists/medics. Given how the politicians seem to ignore inconvenient scientific advice and how Witty & Vallance seem to always be supportive of Government path (even when it's contrary to scientific advice) I feel Witty/Vallance's "independence" is questionable and unreliable. Maybe I'm being unfair but for now I tend to regard them as a Johnson support act.
Ian
Re: Who's had the vaccine?
Posted: 24 Jan 2021, 12:56pm
by Oldjohnw
If we are short of vaccines I would expect that whilst we will reach people more quickly we will also use the vaccine up more quickly. We will not reach more people.
Re: Who's had the vaccine?
Posted: 24 Jan 2021, 1:18pm
by kwackers
merseymouth wrote:Well, Perfection is difficult to attain, but we should keep trying to reach such heights. So no "He said, she said" please. Scientific data is surely best analysed is a calm atmosphere? MM
I think the atmosphere is calm
The issue is there's disagreement amongst the experts and rather than accepting it's by no means settled folk seem to pin their flag to the expert of choice.
I'll be honest I originally thought the government was right but the more I've thought about it the less sure I am.
I'm now of the opinion that if the vaccine was tested with a 3 week gap then that's how it should be given, if nothing else we *know* that works.
Whilst this is underway we could meanwhile be doing some testing to see how effective the vaccine is with a longer gap.
If you look at the numbers vaccine rates are exponential so the initial numbers aren't so great as to make a huge difference to the number of people vaccinated if the vaccine is given to them twice.
<edit> virus==vaccine
Re: Who's had the vaccine?
Posted: 24 Jan 2021, 1:21pm
by Psamathe
kwackers wrote:...
I'll be honest I originally thought the government was right but the more I've thought about it the less sure I am.
I'm now of the opinion that if the vaccine was tested with a 3 week gap then that's how it should be given, if nothing else we *know* that works.
Whilst this is underway we could meanwhile be doing some testing to see how effective the virus is with a longer gap.....
+1 (i.e. how my own feeling are now going/forming)
Ian
Re: Who's had the vaccine?
Posted: 24 Jan 2021, 5:37pm
by Cowsham
Psamathe wrote:kwackers wrote:...
I'll be honest I originally thought the government was right but the more I've thought about it the less sure I am.
I'm now of the opinion that if the vaccine was tested with a 3 week gap then that's how it should be given, if nothing else we *know* that works.
Whilst this is underway we could meanwhile be doing some testing to see how effective the virus is with a longer gap.....
+1 (i.e. how my own feeling are now going/forming)
Ian
But why does it take everyone so long to see this ? Surely it's easy to deduce?
If someone like me can why can't most people? Why do people follow these idiots like sheep?
It was the same with the house prices. I got ridiculed mercilessly for predicting that banks may be in trouble.
The question which I thought at the time was very relevant was " Is the money I just got for my house safe in the bank while I looked for our new house? ". That started a firestorm of posters on the money saving expert ( there's that word again ) forum telling me what an idiot I was.
The posts in 2006 are still there somewhere I'm sure. ( look up Bill Boner ( from moneyweek mag I think ) the first guy that came to my defence and offered help )
I transferred the excess money into tesco bank - when it was using the RBS banking system but essentially your capital was not kept by RBS but Tesco. The bank my life savings first went into is gone! I'm not a hot shot financial guru in the city just a chap protecting his family.
It's seems like groundhog day with Covid19 in schools and now delaying the second dose of vaccine. What's wrong with our experts? Or do they think we're that stupid?
The truth ( verified by the government themselves at the last cv19 briefing ) is that the government got into a bad situation because they knew too late the virus was out of control so had to delay the second dose vaccine in a gamble to get control back.
This all stems from opening the schools in September, again another bad government decision.
Re: Who's had the vaccine?
Posted: 24 Jan 2021, 5:43pm
by Jdsk
I can only say it again: the choice of the prolonged interval between doses in the current situation is supported by many experts. Their views are widely available. (And I'll repeat the offer to guide people to them.)
At a time of a crisis in public health it's irresponsible to suggest that this is only political with no scientific support or some sort of conspiracy.
Jonathan
PS: Thanks to everyone who has accepted the offer of vaccination, and it's great to hear the stories of it going well.
Re: Who's had the vaccine?
Posted: 24 Jan 2021, 5:54pm
by Psamathe
Jdsk wrote:I can only say it again: the choice of the prolonged interval between doses in the current situation is supported by many experts. Their views are widely available. (And I'll repeat the offer to guide people to them.)
At a time of a crisis in public health it's irresponsible to suggest that this is only political with no scientific support or some sort of conspiracy.
....
I don't see the reservations being expressed here as "
... no scientific support or some sort of conspiracy". I don't hold a right vs wrong attitude, but rather am prepared to listen to e.g. the company developing & testing the vaccine (Pfizer) or the WHO. I'm not supposing conspiracies but it is fair to be concerned when the UK is yet again "going it alone" currently contrary to most of the rest of the world.
Ian
Re: Who's had the vaccine?
Posted: 24 Jan 2021, 5:56pm
by Jdsk
Psamathe wrote:... but it is fair to be concerned when the UK is yet again "going it alone" currently contrary to most of the rest of the world.
Totally agree.
And more transparency around the decision would have helped, as always.
Jonathan
Re: Who's had the vaccine?
Posted: 24 Jan 2021, 5:57pm
by Jdsk
Psamathe wrote:... but it is fair to be concerned when the UK is yet again "going it alone" currently contrary to most of the rest of the world.
Totally agree.
And more transparency around the decision would have helped, as always.
As would the rapid evaluation of the policy which many have requested, including the British Society for Immunology and Independent SAGE.
Jonathan
Re: Who's had the vaccine?
Posted: 24 Jan 2021, 6:05pm
by Psamathe
Jdsk wrote:Psamathe wrote:... but it is fair to be concerned when the UK is yet again "going it alone" currently contrary to most of the rest of the world.
Totally agree.
And more transparency around the decision would have helped, as always.
Jonathan
From what is reported (e.g. The Conversation, Guardian, Independent, I don't do Facebook or Twitter) it sounds difficult for the Government to be more transparent as it sounds like there is not the data to support nor to counter the move. It seems an unknown until more data has been collected.
e.g.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/24/vaccine-experts-on-uk-12-week-covid-jab-interval wrote:The chief executive of the British Society for Immunology said there needed to be greater clarity about how the potential effect of a 12-week dosing gap was being assessed, particularly in terms of the body’s immune response.
“If we are changing the dosing schedule [compared with] what was done on the trials then we need to have a robust programme monitoring the immune response,” said Dr Doug Brown.
The society has previously said that while it would have preferred the dosing schedule in the clinical trials to be followed, the shift to a 12-week gap was understandable given the current crisis. But it has called for studies to assess how altering the dosing interval affects the efficacy of the vaccines, and for rapid modification of dosing schedules as appropriate.
...
But Brown said further details of immunological studies still needed to be revealed, adding the society had recently written to the government, repeating its request for more information.
...
Others have gone further, calling for large randomised control trials exploring different dosing regimes.
Prof Sheila Bird, formerly of the Medical Research Council’s biostatistics unit at the University of Cambridge, said the approach would mean comparisons could be made on a like-for-like basis and would help to answer questions ranging from the short-term impact on Covid cases in the weeks after the first dose of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine was given, to the longer term effect of different dosing schedules on Covid-related hospital cases, and even the potential impact on long Covid.
I suppose there are different aspects of "transparency". e.g. what basis for choosing 12 weeks rather than 10 weeks rather than 8 weeks. One hopes they have some data from somewhere rather than roll of a dice.
Ian
Re: Who's had the vaccine?
Posted: 24 Jan 2021, 6:14pm
by al_yrpal
kwackers wrote:al_yrpal wrote:Experts endorse it and thats good enough for me.
Al
Just to correct you here; "some" experts endorse it "some" don't.
I got this from New Scientist.
There isnt anything wrong with my statement because it didnt say 'all experts' And by the way Experts did endorse it, and it would truly be a miracle if they all did.
Al
Re: Who's had the vaccine?
Posted: 24 Jan 2021, 6:45pm
by Phileas
Cowsham wrote:But why does it take everyone so long to see this ? Surely it's easy to deduce?
If someone like me can why can't most people? Why do people follow these idiots like sheep?
If you could show me the steps in your “deduction” it might help me to stop being sheep-like.
Re: Who's had the vaccine?
Posted: 24 Jan 2021, 7:56pm
by thirdcrank
Jdsk
Apart from noting that my comments about the BMA were wrongly attributed to you, you seem to have avoided the issue. For me, it's hard not to wonder why the body representing doctors seems to have come out against delaying the second injection.
Re: Who's had the vaccine?
Posted: 24 Jan 2021, 8:50pm
by Jdsk
Have you got a link to the BMA's position, please? And as it's you I'll certainly try and respond.
Thanks
Jonathan
Re: Who's had the vaccine?
Posted: 24 Jan 2021, 9:02pm
by Psamathe
Jdsk wrote:Have you got a link to the BMA's position, please? And as it's you I'll certainly try and respond.
Thanks
Jonathan
https://www.bma.org.uk/advice-and-support/covid-19/vaccines/covid-19-prioritising-vaccination-of-healthcare-workers wrote:...
It is also vital that frontline healthcare workers receive full protection as soon as possible. This is particularly important for the Pfizer vaccine for which there is a lack of data on the impact of increasing the interval between doses beyond 42 days.
In line with WHO recommendations for this vaccine - that the second dose should be given within 21-28 days or as soon as possible thereafter. We will be pushing for individuals to receive their second dose as close as possible to the original schedule.
...
Ian